(Economic Watch) In the face of uncertainty, China has increased its steady growth to the real economy
China News Agency, Beijing, April 7 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The current economic performance of China has generally remained within a reasonable range, but the complexity and uncertainty of the domestic and foreign environments have increased, and some have exceeded expectations.
The State Council executive meeting held on the 6th announced a two-way policy, starting from increasing guarantees and support to reach the real economy, and further releasing a signal of stable growth.
The first-way policy aims to alleviate the negative impact of industries hit hard by the epidemic and strengthen job security.
In March, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index all fell below the critical point, indicating that the overall level of economic prosperity has declined.
Especially in the service industry, railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering and other contact clusters have been greatly affected by the epidemic, and business activities have been significantly reduced.
The meeting pointed out that some market players are currently severely impacted, and some even suspend production and business, and it is necessary to increase protections such as bailouts and employment in response to outstanding difficulties.
Focusing on extremely difficult industries such as catering, retail, tourism, civil aviation, road, water, and railway transportation, the meeting launched a series of measures, including the implementation of the postponement of the payment of endowment insurance premiums in the second quarter of this year, the continuation of the phased expansion policy of unemployment insurance protection, and the promotion of unemployment in small, medium and micro enterprises. Insurance return rate, etc.
It can be seen that the above policies are all directly connected to the market entities affected by the epidemic.
Cheng Shi, Chief Economist of ICBC International, said that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is structurally asymmetrical. The impact on small and medium-sized enterprises is greater than that on large enterprises, and the impact on the middle- and low-income classes is greater than that on the upper-middle-income class. Small, medium and micro enterprises are the biggest employment carriers. , to further tilt the policy bailout resources to the micro level, and enhance the micro-directivity of fiscal and monetary policies, which will play a better policy effect.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, analyzed that under the epidemic, expenses such as rent and debt for difficult industries and vulnerable groups are rigid, while income is fragile. Therefore, the most important policy is to protect the cash flow of micro entities.
This time, the National Assembly will suspend the payment of pension, unemployment and work-related injury insurance premiums for five difficult industries, provide unemployment subsidies and temporary living subsidies to vulnerable groups, and provide small, medium and micro enterprises with stable jobs, return and subsidies, etc., all of which are targeted. policy measures.
The second-way policy requires timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as re-lending, to better play the dual functions of total volume and structure, and to increase support for the real economy.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters that from the perspective of aggregate tools, relevant measures include timely RRR cuts, increased open market operations, and increased MLF (Medium-Term Lending Facility) efforts. By running these monetary policy tools, it is possible to Maintaining a reasonably sufficient liquidity and an appropriate interest rate level also reflects the objective requirements of a prudent monetary policy tone.
It is worth noting that this meeting not only focused on "increasing the total volume", but also emphasized on strengthening the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and at the same time focusing on "optimizing the structure".
For example, through the establishment of two special re-loans for technological innovation and inclusive elderly care, to support financing in key areas and weak links; it is required to study and adopt measures to financially support consumption and effective investment, improve the level of financial services for new citizens, and optimize affordable housing finance. services, ensure the financing needs of key project construction, and promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry.
Among them, as a loan issued by the central bank to financial institutions to achieve monetary policy goals, re-lending not only helps financial institutions provide credit support to the real economy at lower interest rates, but also better guides them to provide targeted support to related fields.
Analysts believe that the meeting proposed to set up two new special re-loans, aiming at the shortcomings of science and technology innovation and pensions with huge development space, and will better play the structural role of monetary policy.
Wen Bin also pointed out that China's economy is currently facing triple pressures, and financial efforts should focus more on supporting stability and expanding domestic demand. In particular, expanding consumption and effective investment demand requires further financial support.
The National Standing Committee emphasized improving financial services for new citizens, optimizing financial services for affordable housing, etc., which also better demonstrated the strength of financial services to serve people's livelihood and the real economy.
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