The war in Ukraine is far from over, the extent of the destruction and the circumstances under which peace will be possible are not yet foreseeable.

Nevertheless, eight well-known economists have already presented an action plan for the reconstruction of the country.

In an analysis published on Thursday under the umbrella of the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), economists write that one can already think about which principles and priorities should be pursued.

Johannes Pennekamp

Responsible editor for economic reporting, responsible for "The Lounge".

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Authors include Beatrice Weder di Mauro, former “Wirtschaftsweise” and current CEPR President, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff and Barry Eichengreen (University of California).

In the development plan, the researchers assume an economic slump in Ukraine of at least 30 percent of the gross domestic product.

About a third of the wheat fields will not be cultivated this year, and the proportion of workers who have left their place of residence and work is just as high.

Nevertheless, the researchers see a foundation on which to build.

"Despite the massive economic disruption and mounting fiscal challenges, government functions are largely functional," the economists write in the 31-page "Blueprint."

Three phases of assistance

After a little more than a month of war, experts put the aid from Europe and other countries needed in Ukraine at 200 to 500 billion euros.

Three phases of assistance can be distinguished.

In the emergency phase, which must begin as quickly as possible and last around six months, the aim should be to protect people from even worse things.

"Humanitarian aid must be provided urgently to meet basic needs, avoid starvation and prevent further exodus from Ukraine," the paper said.

Food, fuel and medical supplies would have to be delivered to the affected areas.

According to the researchers, the focus of the second phase, which will last around two years, will be on rebuilding the critical infrastructure.

By this they mean not only bridges and power lines, but also, for example, that the Ukrainian central bank can work effectively again and limit inflation.

Finally, the third phase must be about laying the foundation for a prosperous economy.

The first point the researchers mention is accession to the European Union.

The prospect of accession is an important incentive to fight corruption and strengthen the rule of law.

In order for this construction path to be followed, the researchers propose setting up a stand-alone, EU-authorized agency "with far-reaching autonomy to coordinate and manage aid and reconstruction programs".

In addition, the aid should first come in the form of grants, not in the form of loans, which could quickly overwhelm the country.

The researchers recall: "90 percent of the payments from the Marshall Plan were grants."