Two prominent products of economic modeling are currently colliding in an interesting way with trade union experiences.

On the one hand, there is the warning of a "wage-price spiral" - an excessive wage policy in response to high inflation rates, which may even increase inflation.

Trade unions are strangers to this, if only because they generally don't like being told by third parties what the framework for reasonable wage demands is.

On the other hand, there are the current simulation studies, according to which a boycott of Russian gas deliveries would be easily manageable for the economy and would at best temporarily push down the gross domestic product by a few percentage points.

The industrial unions reject this model world even more clearly than that of the wage-price spiral.

They warn against underestimating the interdependence of industrial value chains and the broad impact of possible production losses.

Indeed, there are some doubts as to whether such studies adequately reflect qualitative differences between a corona lockdown in the hospitality industry and a standstill in the chemical and steel industries.

In the context of wage policy, the criticism of “frivolous” boycott debates justified in this way is all the more interesting.

Indirectly, the industrial unions are narrowing their argumentative scope: Anyone who classifies the industry, which is already struggling with difficult transformation tasks, as so vulnerable can hardly want to bring it to its knees next with industrial action.

"Unanchoring" of inflation expectations not yet underway

However, the current wage agreement for the chemical industry also shows that the debate about wage-price spirals has hardly fitted in with the reality of collective bargaining, at least so far.

Your 580,000 employees will receive a sizeable 1,400 euros as a one-time payment to compensate for inflation.

The talks about higher monthly wages, which were actually due, were postponed until autumn - with the active consent of the IG BCE union.

Collective bargaining policy is always a complex process of balancing interests, also within the organisations.

Anyone who sees only applied mathematics in this misjudges its integrative power.

The value of collective bargaining autonomy is not only measured by the euro and percentage figures it delivers.

To the extent that it gives them legitimacy and acceptance, it produces social stability.

This time, the IG BCE and its members started with high expectations in view of the strong industry situation, only then were they surprised by the Ukraine war, but also by increased inflation.

The fact that consideration for economic risks for the companies then outweighed the desire for higher wage percentages was at least not a matter of course.

Even Verdi's new collective bargaining agreement in the private banking sector - three percent this year, two percent next year - does not suggest that the "unanchoring" of inflation expectations feared by economists is already underway.

But of course it can still happen due to long-lasting price increases.

Experiences from the 1970s suggest that it will take some time for the experience of shrinking purchasing power to materialize in wage policy.

The responsibility lies with the state

However, it is unclear whether the strike power of the trade unions would still be comparable in the event of serious confrontations: their number of members has fallen sharply, as has the broad impact of their collective agreements.

The fragility of industrial value chains, which is causing them great concern in the sanctions debate, has another characteristic when it comes to collective bargaining: not only a lack of gas can have a large leverage effect, but even a limited strike.

Before these levers can be used in a crisis, IG Metall and Co. would have to experience a major change in mood.

However, it is different in the public sector - and not only because the employees there hardly fear for jobs.

Even before the surge in inflation, Verdi nurtured the idea that wage policy there had a lot of catching up to do.

And the SPD scored points with the political promise to finally give the “everyday heroes” – meaning mostly employees in the public sector – “respect”.

This does not suggest that the public employers want to ensure wage policy discipline in the collective bargaining round in autumn with a courageous step on the cost brake.

This may then put the industrial unions under new pressure.

A large part of the responsibility for preventing such a change in sentiment in wage policy therefore lies with the state.