"There is a risk of a wave of insolvencies that could also jeopardize the supply of the population": Carsten Taucke, member of the executive committee of the wholesale and foreign trade association BGA, described the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine for the German transport industry in drastic words on Wednesday.

Small and medium-sized companies in particular could hardly cope with the increased diesel prices.

The reduction in mineral oil tax announced by the federal government will hardly help either.

"It's not getting better, it's getting worse," said Taucke.

Henrik Ankenbrand

Economic correspondent for China based in Shanghai.

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Julia Loehr

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He fears that the EU's plan to ban imports of Russian coal will continue to drive up energy prices.

The end consumers would also feel this.

It will "definitely be very, very expensive," said Taucke, who runs the logistics company Nagel-Group.

Added to this is the lack of truck drivers.

Between 60,000 and 80,000 are currently missing.

“Many drivers come from Ukraine and Russia.

We cannot replace the failures.”

Not only the local economy is concerned about the stressed supply chains.

The war whirls up logistics around the globe.

"Just when we were hoping to emerge from the storm as the omicron wave subsided, the next one arrives - the Russian invasion of Ukraine," said Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat at the Singapore Maritime Week industry conference in the world's second largest port city.

The fact that civil airspace over Russia and Ukraine is largely closed and the rail line between China and Europe is being avoided through Russia means that logistics costs continue to rise.

Last year, the rates for global container transport “more than quadrupled” compared to the time before Corona.

That is not irrelevant.

Because more than 80 percent of international freight traffic is handled by sea.

"Continued high freight rates will weigh on trade and thus the lifeblood of the global economy," Heng warned.

12 percent of all shipped goods are stuck in traffic

According to calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), a first setback for world trade was already apparent in March.

"Real upheavals caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the West, as well as a high degree of uncertainty among companies with ties to Russia, are having a noticeable impact on March trading," said Vincent Stamer, head of the Trade Indicator at the IfW.

The leading indicator shows a decline in international trade in goods by 2.8 percent compared to the previous month.

In addition, around 12 percent of all shipped goods are now stuck in traffic jams - only in two months last year were there more.

For German exports, the indicator signals a decline of 3.7 percent in March, after falling in February.

The effects of the war were hardly reflected in these data.

In addition, German industrial companies surprisingly received 2.2 percent fewer orders in February, as the Federal Statistical Office also announced on Wednesday.

It is uncertain how demand will develop in the face of the great uncertainty in the coming months, according to a statement from the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

According to the IfW, Ukraine is now practically cut off from international maritime trade.

The country's most important port, Odessa on the Black Sea, has not called at a large container ship since the outbreak of war.

Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Heng also reported on the strong impact of the war in the region: "More than a hundred ships are stranded in Black Sea ports and several are damaged by the conflict".

Nevertheless, the West's sanctions against Russia are now clearly having an effect, said IfW economist Stamer.

"The Russian population is faced with an increasingly scarce supply of goods." At the three largest ports in Russia, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Novorossiysk, container freight traffic has already shrunk by half.

Lockdown in Shanghai is also driving inflation

The lockdown in the Chinese economic metropolis of Shanghai, which was extended “until further notice”, is not yet clearly reflected in the trade figures.

However, that could change soon.

According to European companies, 40 percent fewer goods were handled in the world's largest container port compared to the previous week, said the Vice President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, Bettina Schön-Behanzin, at a virtual information event.

This would disrupt the supply chains of many German companies that, like discount supermarkets, purchase goods such as wooden toys from China.

Even for companies that are allowed to continue producing during the lockdown with government approval, the situation is “very difficult”.

Massive problems in production and logistics are also being reported from other parts of China.

Because it is already becoming apparent today that many companies will go bankrupt as a result, the country is threatened with high mass unemployment, said EU chamber chief Jörg Wuttke.

China has been Germany's most important trading partner for years.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) warned against over-dependence on the Chinese market.

"Regarding the German situation, my concern is more that we import a lot of energy from Russia and have strong economic ties with China," said Lindner in an interview with the weekly newspaper "Die Zeit".

Germany must also diversify its international relations when it comes to exports,” he demanded.