Many managers are worried about what is currently happening in the global economy.

There are three developments whose effects overlap: the long-term consequences of the corona pandemic for global supply chains, which lead to delays and fuel inflation, an increasingly unpredictable Chinese government, whose path to self-imposed isolation is accelerated by the epidemic , as well as the Ukraine war, which has caused energy costs in the heart of Europe to skyrocket.

Each individual point represents a huge challenge in itself. Taken together, they have what it takes to become a threat to prosperity, growth and stability in Europe and especially in Germany.

While the growth forecasts at the beginning of the year still looked rosy in anticipation of a rapid recovery, the Russian invasion of Ukraine cracked a cornerstone of the German economic model in one fell swoop: internationally competitive energy prices, which make production "made in Germany" profitable for a strong industry .

A heated argument is currently raging in Europe about a swift energy embargo against Russia.

Regardless of the exact date of the exit from the Russian supply relationships, its implementation is considered certain.

This will have serious consequences for the EU: Even in the existing scenario for the energy transition, the alliance of states with few raw materials will have to import around half of the energy required by 2050.

In addition, a large proportion of the planned fossil fuels must now be replaced.

In the best-case scenario, this will drive the expansion of renewable energies at an unprecedented pace.

However, this should do little to change the price surges that are unavoidable in scarcity markets.

SMEs more affected

Companies from energy-intensive sectors in particular have to react to such changes.

BASF boss Martin Brudermüller has already warned of the destruction of the German economy in the event of a gas embargo.

The world's largest chemical company is likely to be in the best position to react to rising prices by relocating parts of its business, for example to American locations, where energy will remain cheaper in the long term.

Or to China, where a new Verbund site is currently being built for around 10 billion euros.

The main plant in Ludwigshafen was then threatened with serious consequences.

It could be even harder for medium-sized companies that do not have the option to relocate.

Their existence would be endangered.

The discussion will also get new impetus as to whether steel and aluminum must continue to be produced in Germany, although the basic materials have to be imported.

Or whether the switch to "green steel" shouldn't take place right away in those sunny regions of the world where the hydrogen required for this is also produced.

Political warning signals long ignored

The energy issue is superimposed by the second major dependency into which the West has consciously entered in recent decades: that of China as an important supplier and at the same time the most important sales market.

As in the case of Putin's Russia, political warning signs were ignored for a long time in favor of fantastic margins that could be achieved in the world's largest market.

However, recently more and more managers seem to realize how quickly the tide can turn for them in China.

According to a recent evaluation by the Munich Ifo Institute, numerous companies have started to reduce their dependence on the Middle Kingdom.

Even Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess, who used to like to point out in negotiations with recalcitrant works councils,

Because the lesson from the current situation is to reduce unhealthy dependencies.

In order to avoid cluster risks, supplier networks and sales channels must be diversified.

The trend towards regional production has been around since the Trump administration's trade dispute with China.

However, the development of markets in Latin America or Africa must not remain lip service.

To support this, the German government must push for modern free trade agreements in Europe.

If the Greens already agree to extending the lifespan of coal-fired power plants, pseudo-debates about chlorinated chicken must also be wiped off the negotiating table.

Like every crisis, the current one offers an opportunity to learn from it.