For international insurers, the investment perspectives have shifted significantly as a result of high inflation.

Five years ago, only a quarter of companies were concerned about inflation, but now four out of five insurers are concerned.

That emerges from the annual survey of the investment bank Goldman Sachs in the industry.

Philip Krohn

Editor in business, responsible for "People and Business".

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This year, 328 investment managers from Asia, Europe and America responded.

They represent half of the industry's global investment volume.

For the first time in eleven years, price development was at the top of the survey.

"Our most important result is that inflation has become the most important concern," says study author Michael Siegel, head of investment insurance at Goldman Sachs. The view of price increases in the industry is sober and free of illusions.

“It is not short-lived and will remain.

In this way, it also influences the capital investment.”

Inflation has a relieving effect on life insurers

For life insurers, however, higher inflation does not initially mean anything negative.

They have to fulfill their obligations nominally and not in real terms.

If the interest rate situation improves as a result of inflation, it may even become easier for them to meet their nominal obligations.

Insurers' responses reveal two major trends.

Capital investment is being shifted away from public (government) issuers towards private investment.

Equity investments are considered by institutional investors to be the class with the best return opportunities.

The relationship to cryptocurrencies and high-risk bonds is interesting.

For 9 percent of those surveyed, Bitcoin and Co. are considered the most attractive asset class, for 22 percent the one with the lowest prospects.

The discrepancy in the responses to high-yield bonds is almost identical.

The second major trend is the shift towards sustainable investments.

This can be seen on all three continents - but nowhere as strongly as in America.

Five years ago, 85 percent of asset managers there had no question of investing according to ESG criteria (environment, social issues, governance), but this proportion has fallen to 15 percent.

Three quarters of American managers find ESG important

For 77 percent, ESG is one of several questions for their investment behavior today.

In 2017 it was only 15 percent.

The increase in Europe was not as strong.

But there, too, the proportion of those for whom sustainability is a key aspect increased from 6 to 37 percent.

In Asia, not a single manager indicated that they did not pay attention to ESG at all.

In addition to holdings, real estate, capital investments with fluctuating interest rates and raw materials are classified as suitable investments.

Although companies are reallocating their portfolios and moving away from government-issued fixed-income securities, rising interest rates are a reason for many to be optimistic.

More than half of those surveyed expect the US Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate by three to four notches.

Two-thirds believe US 10-year Treasury yields will end the year between 2 and 2.5 percent.

Across all three continents, the proportion that rated low interest rates as their main concern fell from 49 to 23 percent.

The fear of a recession is spreading

But a damper could come from the economic development.

63 percent of insurers fear that a recession will cause them difficulties within the next two to three years.

The proportion of those who predict the S&P 500 index to rise by 0 to 10 percent fell from 75 to 62 percent this year.

Conversely, the proportion of managers expecting a performance of minus 10 to 0 percent rose from 8 to 25 percent.

This is another reason why stocks do not play a decisive role in the plans to switch.

Investors expect the most from equity investments, green bonds and loans.