When the banks' forecasts were fresh at the beginning of the year, very few would have believed that they would be fundamentally turned upside down in such a short time.

After two years of the corona pandemic and its consequences for the global economy, the central banks’ exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy, rising inflation and sustainability were the main topics discussed.

Geopolitical dangers and trouble spots were on the agenda of financial augurs, but hardly anyone expected Russia to invade Ukraine.

On February 24th, just over a month ago, everything changed.

Kerstin Papon

Editor in Business.

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The markets and prices have been extremely volatile since then.

Market participants vacillate between fear and hope.

For example, on March 4th, the Dax recorded its highest daily loss ever with a discount of 4.4 percent, not a week later on March 9th with an increase of 7.9 percent but the fifth highest daily gain in its history.

Since the beginning of the year, the bottom line for the German standard values ​​is only a comparatively small minus of 8.3 percent

(see chart) .

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From the annual high of 16,285 points reached in January, the Dax is now a good 11 percent away with less than 14,500 points at times on Thursday.

In the previous year's low of 12,439 points, the index on March 7th was still around 2,000 points less.

Many stock markets in Europe developed similarly in the first quarter – with the exception of oil country Norway.

A look at some raw materials shows the traces of the war more clearly.

Energy commodities such as crude oil and gas have become much more expensive and are leading the ranking with their price increases.

They are considered to be the main drivers of inflation, which in March in Germany reached its highest level in 40 years at an expected rate of 7.3 percent.

These were the estimates of the Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday.

Calculated in euros, Brent North Sea oil has become more expensive this year by more than 40 percent, and natural gas in Europe by more than three quarters.

A barrel (around 159 liters) of Brent currently costs around $108; at the beginning of March it was almost $140.

Even a commodity index like the GSCI, which is very energy-heavy, has recorded an increase of around 40 percent since the beginning of the year.

In addition, the war in Ukraine has also caused other raw materials and commodities to rise significantly in price, such as wheat - with still uncertain consequences for the world population and especially the poor countries of the world.

Ukraine and Russia are among the largest wheat producers in the world.

They are said to account for about a quarter of world trade in this grain.

In the case of sunflower oil, too, the consequences are not only reflected in the empty shelves in the supermarket, but also in the price.

Half of the exports have so far come from Ukraine.

Trading in the contract was suspended on the futures market.

Also in demand is a crisis metal like gold, which at currently around $1,940 per troy ounce (31.3 grams) has already come closer to its record high of $2,075 from August 2020.