Is Vladimir Putin to blame for the rise in prices in Spain, as Pedro Sánchez says?
If a family consumes the same goods and services this year
that it purchased last year, it will have to
spend 880 euros more
than in 2021 to be able to pay for them.
It is the effect of inflation
on purchasing power
, which in March was 9.8%, the highest recorded in Spain since May 1985.
In aggregate terms for the entire Spanish economy, this translates into a
global loss of purchasing power
of households of
16,700 million euros
, according to the Savings Banks Foundation (
Funcas
), and provided that inflation gradually decreases over time. of the year and manage to close the year at an
average of 6.8%
.
For that, the IPC should rise 6.5% each month between now and the end of the year.
If the average is above, the decrease in purchasing power will be greater.
Today, with the rise in prices of 6.1% in January, 7.6% in February and 9.8% in March,
the average CPI for the year stands at 7.8%
, but the Experts expect it to drop slightly throughout the year until it can be one point lower on average, at 6.8%.
Historical evolution of inflation
Although the blow of inflation affects everyone, it does not do so with the same incidence, since it depends on the composition
of each one
's consumption basket .
Thus, although the INE publishes the inflation data for the whole of Spain, significant differences can be seen by autonomous community, just as there are between households.
Those houses -or regions- that dedicate a greater proportion of their total consumption to paying for electricity, gasoline and food, will suffer
higher inflation.
These are traditionally
the families with the lowest incomes,
since upper-middle class households allocate a greater part of their income to other leisure activities or the purchase of other products.
By
communities
, this difference is also observed.
Regions in which aggregate consumption is focused more on basic necessities have higher inflation rates (in February
9% in Castilla-La Mancha
or 8.5% in Aragón and Castilla y León), while those with higher per capita income levels and in which families have a broader and more diversified consumption basket, suffer lower inflation (
6.8% in Madrid
in February, for example, the latest data available).
When the INE confirms the data for March in the middle of the month, the regional breakdown will be known.
Although the main reason for the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the
energy component
-the rise in the prices of electricity, gas and fuel-, as it is a good that all companies and families have to consume, it it has produced a
contagion effect on the final prices of the entire consumer basket.
It is more expensive to do the shopping, go to the hairdresser or a new coat.
Proof of this is that
core inflation
, which does not take into account the price of energy or fresh food, stood at
3.4%
in March , its highest level since 2008.
The rise in prices in Spain far exceeds what is taking place in other European countries.
This same Wednesday it was known that the
CPI in Germany
in March rose by
7.6%,
its maximum in the last forty years, but a much lower increase than in our country.
France and Italy
will publish inflation data this Thursday, but according to analysts at consultancy Capital Economics "inflation in those countries is also likely to far exceed consensus forecasts of 4.8% and 7.2%, respectively." And it is likely that the provisional inflation rate of the euro zone will far exceed the consensus forecast of 6.6%", but even so they will not have figures as high as the Spanish one.
This gap affects the
competitiveness
of Spanish companies, whose costs rise more than those of other countries and may be forced to raise their final prices even more.
If your prices are higher than those of other foreign companies in the same sector, the latter will be more likely to sell.
Impact of inflation
The rise in inflation acts as an
expansionary pump
that affects many areas of the economy, in addition to the loss of purchasing power for families and competitiveness for companies.
The rise in prices also causes a
drop in consumption
that Funcas calculates will be
up to one point
, since families will try to moderate the impact on their income by consuming less.
That drop in consumption, analysts warn, could be even higher
if households had not accumulated savings during the pandemic
.
Now, they will use part of them to be able to face higher prices.
In the business sphere, the increase in prices and costs will generate a
drop
in
investment
.
In addition, given that the rise in prices and the differential with Europe will reduce the competitiveness of Spanish companies, this could translate into a
drop in exports
compared to what was expected.
As consumption, investment and net exports are fundamental components of the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
, a fall in these items will translate into
lower economic growth.
On the other hand, the price increase will
widen the budget gap
, since the Government deploys measures that involve an
increase in public spending
(such as the rebate on fuel or direct aid) and will also be forced to disburse more in the indicated items to inflation, such as
pensions
.
The increase in
tension in labor relations
is another collateral effect, since the rise in prices automatically generates demands from the unions, who ask for an
increase in wages for workers.
"It is essential that the Government urgently apply price containment measures. To prevent the impact of inflation from leading to increases in inequality or poverty,
it is essential that wages maintain their purchasing power
and jobs be maintained. Otherwise , the worst consequences will be for the workers," said
Mariano Hoya, UGT spokesman, on Wednesday.
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Europe
INE
UGT
GDP
Germany
Prices The Government will feed inflation if it focuses on giving aid in the face of tax cuts
According to AirefHacienda, it is collecting 3,500 million euros more per year of VAT due to inflation
CrisisThe Government admits that inflation existed before the war, but anticipates that it will worsen and that its impact "will last for years"
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