The national property market is picking up in differentiation: Beijing's transaction volume rebounds sharply, and mortgage loans are released in the fastest 3 weeks
The first- and second-tier cities have shown signs of warming, and the Beijing property market has become an important weather vane.
With the support of multi-dimensional policies, the domestic property market has gradually recovered, but the differentiation has become more obvious.
According to the latest data from the China Index Research Institute, the overall transaction volume of the property market rose in March, and the year-on-year decline expanded. However, there have been obvious signs of warming in the first- and second-tier cities. Among them, Beijing has increased by more than 80% month-on-month, becoming an important weather vane.
Some real estate agents in Beijing told reporters that the current second-hand housing transaction has reached or even exceeded the level before the epidemic, and the shortage of housing resources is reappearing.
In addition, according to the reporter's understanding from many banks, the current Beijing first and second home loan interest rates still maintain the benchmark interest rate up 55 and 105 basis points, but the loan speed is significantly accelerated, and the material is complete and the fastest loan is 3 weeks.
However, it is worth noting that the current decline in transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities has not been completely reversed. The overall transaction volume of third-tier representative cities monitored by the Middle Index Research Institute fell by 10.4% month-on-month.
However, in recent years, various cities have implemented policies and measures, and it is generally expected in the industry that it is only a matter of time before the sales end will pick up.
Specifically, after dozens of cities took measures such as lowering the loan interest rate and reducing the down payment ratio, some cities gradually released the purchase restriction/loan restriction policy. The district's 3-year sales policy, Fuzhou also spread the news that the purchase restriction was released.
Beijing property market "revenge recovery"
"If you want to buy it, hurry up. The housing stock is very tight recently, and one client hesitates to work for a year." Although there are exaggerated elements, the real estate agent also pointed out the recent changes in the Beijing property market.
According to him, the total price of houses in popular communities in Beijing's Haidian District has risen by more than 100,000 yuan compared to before, and the transaction has significantly exceeded the level of last year or even before the epidemic.
The store where the intermediary is located sells at least 5 suites a day, and the listings are completely unable to keep up with demand.
Both volume and price have risen, which is in sharp contrast to the almost zero transaction status from August to November last year.
At that time, a real estate agent in Chaoyang District told reporters that since the second half of last year, the tightening of bank mortgage loans has on the one hand suppressed the demand of home buyers, on the other hand, the extended payment time and the lower price than expected have also reduced the willingness of landlords to take action. form negative feedback.
However, since September last year, the supervision has continuously corrected the real estate supply and demand side financing policies, and the marginal easing of mortgage policies has been staged in various places. It was lowered for the first time after 21 months, and the sentiment on the sales side gradually recovered.
A real estate agent in Tongzhou, Beijing said that at present, a community in its coverage area can sell about 10 units a month on average, and the transaction volume of his agency store in March increased by about 60% compared with February.
In terms of housing prices, most of the popular and sought-after housing listings rise by 3% to 5%, but the total price change generally does not exceed 100,000 yuan, and there is "room for negotiation" in the end.
The intermediary source revealed that most landlords have accepted the reality of stable house prices and no longer place their hopes on a sharp rise.
Taking a relatively popular community in Tongzhou as an example, the transaction price before the Spring Festival was about 3.98 million yuan, and now the listed price is about 4.1 million yuan.
The above-mentioned Tongzhou intermediary also said that the current rate of mortgage lending has increased significantly, with a combined loan for one and a half months, and a commercial loan in less than a month at the earliest, "and it is faster to go through an intermediary."
The first financial reporter learned from many local banks in Beijing that the current mortgage interest rate of pure commercial loans still maintains the level of LPR rising by 55 basis points (the first set) and 105 basis points (the second set), but the loan speed has been shortened by 1. within a month.
A credit manager of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Beijing said that at present, the bank's mortgage loan amount is relatively sufficient. After the second-hand housing is completed, the mortgage + loan will only take 2 to 3 weeks at the fastest time. .
He also reported that the current quota is sufficient and there is no need to queue up. The number of combined loan applications accepted by his sub-branch at the provident fund station has increased to about 10 per day, reflecting the apparent recovery of the property market.
Another credit manager of a small and medium-sized bank in Beijing said that if the procedures are complete, the loan can be received as soon as 3 weeks, and there is no need to queue.
However, there is also a credit manager of China Construction Bank said: "The intermediary's statement about the transaction volume is somewhat exaggerated and publicized." His sub-branch can lend money for one month for new houses, but it still takes about two months for second-hand houses due to more procedures.
The signs of recovery have been truly reflected in the data.
The latest statistics from the China Index Research Institute show that although the year-on-year decline in property market transactions across the country continued to expand in March, the month-on-month increase was evident, especially in the first- and second-tier representative cities.
Except for Shanghai, which continued to decline month-on-month due to the interference of the epidemic, the transaction area of first-tier cities all achieved a month-on-month increase. Among them, Beijing led with a month-on-month increase of 80.4%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 34% and 26% respectively.
Under the differentiation, city-specific policies continue to increase
Although the overall transaction has turned from decline to increase, as of March 26, compared with the overall increase of 12% in first-tier cities and 32.3% in second-tier cities, the transaction volume in third-tier cities continued to drop by 10.4% in March.
Specifically, among the second-tier cities, Suzhou leads with a month-on-month growth rate of 67.4%, while Fuzhou and Wuhan rank second and third with a month-on-month increase of 53.4% and 51.2% respectively.
However, the differentiation between cities still exists. For example, the transaction in Nanjing still fell by more than 20% month-on-month.
While the third-tier cities declined month-on-month, the year-on-year decline expanded to 75.5%. Among them, the transaction in Lianyungang decreased by 69.9% compared with the previous month, and Shaoguan decreased by 26.7%.
Under the differentiation, the policies in various places are still increasing according to the city.
Following Zhengzhou's cancellation of "recognizing houses and loans" and Harbin's cancellation of the three-year sales restriction in the 6 districts of the main urban area, there has also been news of relaxing the purchase restriction policy in Fuzhou recently, saying that non-local households do not need to provide social security or pay taxes to purchase houses in the main urban area of Fuzhou. certification or settlement.
In addition, Shenzhen is said to increase the reference price of second-hand housing for one year, that is, "the reference price will be increased by 3%-5%".
In addition, the second-tier and lower-tier cities, especially the third- and fourth-tier cities, continue to adjust the mortgage interest rates, and the mortgage interest rates are still in a downward channel.
According to the mainstream housing loan interest rate data in key cities released by the Shell Research Institute, among the 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute in March, the mainstream interest rates in 82 cities were lowered. Interest rates were cut by 34 basis points.
Overall, the mainstream first-home loan interest rate in 103 key cities was 5.34%, and the second-home loan interest rate was 5.60%, down 13 and 15 basis points from the previous month, the largest monthly decline since 2019.
In addition, the average loan period this month was 34 days, 4 days shorter than the previous month.
In the context of regulatory encouragement and multi-dimensional loosening of local policies, it is generally expected in the industry that it is only a matter of time before the overall recovery of real estate sales, and the replenishment of financing funds will further improve the confidence of home buyers.