How big is the economic impact of the outbreak of the epidemic? Intensive deployment of central enterprises to help enterprises bail out

How big is the impact on the economic recovery of the new round of the epidemic? Although my country's economic data in the first two months exceeded market expectations, the local epidemic has rebounded. The number of affected provinces and the economic volume of related cities have reached a new high in two years. The agency predicts that the epidemic may cause 0.3 to 0.7% of GDP growth in the

　　How big is the impact on the economic recovery of the new round of the epidemic?

Although my country's economic data in the first two months exceeded market expectations, the local epidemic has rebounded. The number of affected provinces and the economic volume of related cities have reached a new high in two years. The agency predicts that the epidemic may cause 0.3 to 0.7% of GDP growth in the first quarter. percent negative impact.

　　Recently, intensive deployment from the central to the local level has introduced a series of relief measures to help enterprises, and promoted the implementation of policies in detail.

Several experts have analyzed that the package of measures launched this year for hundreds of millions of market players is strong, practical and fast, which will help promote economic recovery as soon as possible.

　　The service industry and offline consumption have been greatly impacted

　　Since March, the epidemic has spread across the country, especially the economic center cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, which have been affected by the epidemic, and the service industry and offline consumption have been greatly affected.

　　Under the stricter epidemic prevention and control requirements in various places, the flow of people in the city and across regions has dropped significantly, which has a greater impact on offline aggregation and close-knit consumption, and tourism, travel, and catering have declined significantly.

　　The research report released by Minsheng Securities shows that the service industry-related indicators such as subway passenger volume, China Textile City transaction volume, and congestion delay index in various cities have fallen more significantly than other industrial product indicators after March.

Subway passenger traffic has fallen to its lowest level for the same period in nearly five years.

　　A survey recently released by the Shenzhen Retail Business Association showed that during the one-week suspension of the epidemic, Shenzhen's retail chain industry faced large-scale closures, resulting in loss of revenue; continued to bear the costs of rent, manpower, commodity loss and other operating costs; For supermarkets, agricultural product supply chains and other supply-guaranteing companies, additional pressure has been added on labor, consumables, logistics and other costs to ensure supply.

During this week, more than 30% of the surveyed companies lost more than 10 million yuan in revenue in a week.

　　The epidemic not only affects the consumption and service industries, but also spreads to the manufacturing and construction industries through transportation and logistics, real estate sales and other links.

CICC's monitoring of some high-frequency data shows that the cement shipment rate and construction steel transaction volume have all shown signs of slowing down or even falling; %, the throughput of the distribution centers of major express delivery companies decreased by 17.4%, and the decline was 8.8 and 7.9 percentage points higher than that in early March.

　　"Fortunately, the impact of the epidemic on industrial production is weak, and high-frequency data verifies this." Minsheng Securities analyst Zhou Junzhi analyzed that factories can build warehouses and temporarily avoid the impact of the epidemic on transportation. In addition, the cost of starting and shutting down factories is relatively high, especially in the upstream raw material industry, which will not reduce the capacity utilization rate unless necessary.

Recently, high-frequency indicators such as daily consumption of power plants and apparent consumption of hot coils have declined by less than 5%, which is a normal slowdown. It has not yet shown that industrial production has been significantly impacted by the epidemic.

However, we should also be alert to whether changes in the epidemic situation in the future will have a further impact on industrial production, such as whether the Tangshan epidemic will lead to a further decline in the operating rate of local steel mills.

　　CICC estimates that as of March 18, the GDP of prefecture-level cities affected by the epidemic accounted for 37.6% of the national total, and the number of affected provinces and the economic volume of relevant cities have both hit a two-year high. It is expected that the epidemic will affect the GDP in the first quarter. The growth rate caused a negative impact of 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points.

　　Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, analyzed that the rebound of the epidemic since March has had a serious impact on the normal operation of the economy and society.

Offline collective consumption is restricted, and catering, tourism, and real estate sales have declined significantly; industrial production is relatively stable, but construction, freight logistics, etc. have been disrupted.

In view of this, it is expected that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter may fall to about 4.8%.

　　Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, told Yicai.com that although the impact of the epidemic on consumption and people-contact economic activities is still great, and the impact of high commodity prices on investment activities of mid- and downstream enterprises still exists, policy efforts are ahead. The results show that the growth rate of investment, especially infrastructure investment, is expected to continue to increase, which can hedge against the impact of negative factors to a certain extent.

　　Promote the implementation of the policy

　　This year's government work report made it clear that "focus on stabilizing market players and ensuring employment", "improving policies such as burden reduction and relief, and consolidating the foundation for stable economic operation and quality improvement", and made detailed arrangements, including the implementation of a new combined tax and fee support policy , strengthen financial support for the real economy, promote the reduction of production and operation costs of enterprises, and implement a series of measures that benefit hundreds of millions of market players.

　　The executive meeting of the State Council held on March 14 determined the division of key tasks in the government work report, requiring a solid and vigorous implementation, and promoting the economy to maintain a stable operation while climbing the slopes and crossing the hurdles.

　　In recent times, intensive deployment from the central to local governments has been carried out to promote the implementation of policies.

According to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, from March 23 to 25, Zhao Chenxin, member of the party group and secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission, presided over a video symposium on the economic situation in the first quarter by local, experts and industry associations, discussing the current economic operation and the difficulties faced. As well as suggestions on countermeasures to listen to the opinions of relevant units and experts, responsible comrades from the General Department and other relevant units attended the meeting.

　　Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, presided over a symposium on the analysis of the operation situation of key industries a few days ago, to study and judge the current industrial economic situation, and to deploy the work of epidemic prevention and control and stable industrial growth.

The meeting pointed out that the industrial economy performed better than expected in the first two months of this year, achieving a good start.

At the same time, it should be noted that international and domestic uncertainties and unstable factors have increased since March, and various difficulties and challenges cannot be ignored. Continuing to boost the operation of the industrial economy still requires arduous efforts.

　　The meeting emphasized that the policy should be put into effect.

Continue to do a good job in publicizing and interpreting a series of policies to stabilize growth and promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, further improve the accuracy and effectiveness of policy implementation, and ensure that policy measures are fully implemented, so that the majority of enterprises have a real sense of gain.

Closely track and analyze industry trends, timely pre-research and predict risks and challenges in the operation of the industrial economy, and scientifically do a good job in monitoring, early warning and policy reserves.

　　On March 28, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Rent Reduction and Exemption for Small and Micro Enterprises and Individual Industrial and Commercial Households in the Service Industry in 2022". Small and micro enterprises in the service industry and individual industrial and commercial households that lease the houses of central enterprises within ) will be exempted from rent for 6 months of the current year (in the fourth quarter, if the area is classified as a high-risk area of the epidemic, the rent should be fully reduced or exempted by 6 months of rent cancellation in the current year or reduction or exemption in the next year. monthly rent), and 3-month rent reduction in other areas.

　　The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated that the service industry is an important part of the national economy, and small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in the service industry play an important role in prospering the market, promoting employment, and maintaining stability.

Recently, due to the impact of the epidemic and other unfavorable factors, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in the service industry are facing a severe survival crisis.

All central enterprises should actively implement the requirements of the rent reduction and exemption policy, and effectively reduce the operating burden of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in the service industry.

If the implementation of the rent reduction or exemption policy by central enterprises has an impact on the current operating performance, the SASAC will exclude them from the assessment.

　　At the same time, the local version of the bailout policy was also released intensively.

Within a few days, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shenzhen and other places have reduced taxes and fees, reduced or exempted rents, subsidized epidemic prevention expenditures, increased loan issuance, and supported enterprises to expand investment. A package of measures has helped market players relieve their difficulties.

　　For example, the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued "Several Policies and Measures for Shanghai to Fully Fight the Epidemic to Help Enterprises Promote Development", which proposed tax rebates, tax reductions, fee reductions, rent reductions and exemptions, financial subsidies, financial support, and assistance to enterprises to stabilize jobs, etc. Relief policies to help enterprises; preliminary estimates show that tax-related policies alone can reduce the burden of related industries and enterprises in Shanghai by about 140 billion yuan in 2022.