The private sector forecasts that the real growth rate of GDP = gross domestic product from January to this month will be minus 0.24% on an annualized basis.
There is a growing belief that personal consumption will decline due to the spread of Omicron strains.
The Japan Center for Economic Research, a public interest corporation, collects monthly forecasts of GDP growth by private economists.
In this month's aggregate, the average GDP forecast for the three months from January by 36 economists was minus 0.24% on an annualized basis, excluding price fluctuations.
There is a growing belief that this will be the first negative figure in two quarters, down nearly two points from the average of plus 1.70% for last month's total.
With the spread of Omicron strains, priority measures such as prevention of spread have been applied to various places, and the average forecast of "personal consumption", which accounts for more than half of GDP such as eating out and traveling, is minus 0.83% compared to the previous three months. Is the main factor.
On the other hand, for the three months from next month, although consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of + 5.05% due to the recovery of consumption due to the cancellation of priority measures such as prevention of spread, the "rising crude oil price" related to the situation in Ukraine is expected. There are many views that are concerned about the uncertainty of the future.Keywords: