How much fuel cost savings would driving an electric vehicle have compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle?
What effect will this fuel cost reduction have on the national economy as a whole?
The answer to these questions is contained in the study 'Analysis of the economic and environmental impact of Korea's internal combustion engine policies', a study conducted by Cambridge Economics, a British consulting firm, commissioned by Greenpeace, an international environmental organization.
The report was released on March 24th.
Cambridge Economics analyzed that when a car's lifespan is 13 years, the total charging cost of riding an electric car during this period is 13 million won cheaper than the gas cost of a gasoline car.
Costs such as gas and electricity are based on market prices in Korea.
Assuming that a medium-sized electric vehicle travels 15,000 km per year, the full-life (13 years) charging cost is $6,507 (7938,000 won), whereas the refueling cost of a gasoline car of the same size is $17,191 (2,000) 970,000 won), which means there is a price difference of about 13 million won.
The research institute analyzed that such a fuel cost gap has the effect of increasing the disposable income of electric vehicle drivers compared to those of internal combustion engine drivers, and that it also leads to an increase in GDP and jobs at the national economic level.
The report analyzes that the reason why the cessation of early sales of internal combustion engine cars leads to an increase in GDP is the effect of reducing fuel costs and lowering the price of electric vehicles by lowering the price of vehicle batteries.
The report predicts that the price of lithium-ion batteries will be $137/kWh in 2020, down 89% from 2010, and will drop to $58/kWh by 2030.
In this way, consumers spend less on purchasing and operating electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, which leads to reduced spending on imported fossil fuels and increased spending on domestic goods and services, leading to an increase in gross domestic product.
The early cessation of internal combustion engine vehicles is also analyzed to have an impact on job growth.
Jobs are also created in the electric vehicle supply chain, such as batteries and parts, but a decrease in household spending such as fuel costs associated with electric vehicle use leads to an increase in consumption, creating many new jobs in the service industry and manufacturing industry.
The report explains that this is more than offsetting the number of jobs lost in the existing internal combustion engine automobile manufacturing and fossil fuel industries.
In particular, he emphasized that the earlier the period of cessation of internal combustion engine vehicle sales, the greater the effect of a virtuous cycle on the economy.
The basis for this is a comparative analysis of the economic effects of the discontinuation of internal combustion engines in two scenarios in 2030 and 2035.
According to the report, if sales of internal combustion engines in Korea stop in 2030, it is predicted that the gross domestic product will increase by 0.19% compared to 2020, and 40,000 jobs will be created.
As the number of new gasoline and diesel vehicles decreases, oil imports will decrease by 26%, and automobile carbon dioxide emissions will also be reduced by 8,700 tons.
If the end of sales of internal combustion engines is delayed to 2035, it is analyzed that GDP will increase by 0.12% compared to 2020 and 26,000 jobs will be created.
Oil imports and carbon dioxide emissions will also decrease, but at a lower rate than when internal combustion engines cease to exist in 2030.
He expressed his skepticism about hydrogen cars.
Green Hydrogen points out that huge energy loss occurs both in the energy production phase and in the vehicle operation phase.
Because it takes three times as much power to provide the same final energy as a battery electric vehicle, even if the price of green hydrogen falls, it is likely to become a more expensive fuel than electricity.
He also points out that Blue Hydrogen will have to rely on carbon capture technologies that have not yet been realized, and Gray Hydrogen is not a long-term option due to its high carbon emissions.
For this reason, in a scenario where sales of internal combustion engines will be stopped in 2030, when battery electric vehicles account for 95% of new car sales, hydrogen cars account for 5%, he said. I did.