Our reporter Liu Qi
In a week, two major meetings made arrangements for monetary policy and made clear requirements for the scale of new loans.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on March 21 proposed, "Increase the support of the prudent monetary policy to the real economy, insist on not engaging in 'flooding', and at the same time use a variety of monetary policy tools in a timely manner to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and maintain credit. On March 16, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting and proposed that “to boost the economy in the first quarter, monetary policy must take the initiative to respond, and new loans must maintain moderate growth.”
So, how should monetary policy work?
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believed in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools should continue to be played well in the next stage.
On the one hand, in response to the current problem of insufficient aggregate demand, there is still room and necessity for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts (MLF interest rate, LPR reduction, the same below) to boost the confidence of market players, increase effective credit demand, and stabilize and expand aggregate demand; On the one hand, improve structural monetary policy tools such as re-loans to support agriculture and small businesses, carbon emission reduction support tools, and special re-loans for clean and efficient use of coal, focusing on supporting key manufacturing industries, small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, green development, and rural revitalization. areas and weak links, further enhance the ability of financial services to serve the real economy, and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.
The scale of open market operations at the end of the quarter is expected to increase
As the end of the month is approaching and it is also the end of the first quarter, in order to maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") has increased its 7-day reverse repurchase operations since March 17, with a daily operation volume of 80 billion yuan .
Although the operation volume has dropped slightly since March 18, it is still more than 20 billion yuan. The three working days as of March 22 were 30 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively.
On the whole, from March 17 to March 22, the central bank carried out a total of 160 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, and 40 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired in the same period, realizing a net investment of 120 billion yuan.
Judging from the typical indicator DR007 for judging liquidity (the 7-day repurchase rate of interbank depository financial institutions pledged with interest rate bonds), according to the data of the National Interbank Funding Center, as of 17:00 on March 22, DR007 The weighted average rate was 2.0564.
At the same time, according to the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, the average interest rate of DR007 in the past 5 days was 2.056, which was lower than the current 7-day reverse repurchase rate (2.1%), showing that the inter-bank market liquidity is relatively loose.
Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Suning Institute of Financial Research, told the Securities Daily reporter that at the end of the month, in terms of open market operations, the central bank is expected to continue to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system. The current liquidity of the banking system has successfully followed the policy The direction was adjusted steadily, and the money market interest rate timely fed back the policy interest rate level.
What needs to be done in the future is to keep the market interest rate fluctuating around the policy rate level and control the fluctuation.
Since it is the end of the month and the end of the quarter, the impact of the tax period will be temporarily intensified. It is necessary for the central bank to continue to increase short-term liquidity provision to fully meet the liquidity needs of financial institutions.
"Recently, the increased volatility of global financial markets and cross-border capital flows has brought more challenges to domestic monetary policy formulation and liquidity provision." Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the quarter is approaching. At the end of the year, the liquidity required for regulatory assessment has increased.
Under the specific requirements of the special meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council and the executive meeting of the State Council, it is expected that the monetary policy orientation will be more active, the central bank will continue to carry out open market operations such as reverse repurchase, and the scale of operations will increase to ensure reasonable and sufficient market liquidity , the market interest rate remains stable, and the stable operation of the capital market is guaranteed.
New credit is expected to pick up in March
It is worth noting that both the above-mentioned two major meetings mentioned that new loans should maintain a moderate growth, which also echoes the "expanding the scale of new loans" proposed in this year's "Government Work Report".
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that emphasizing the "moderate growth" of new loans means that commercial banks are required to increase credit issuance to the real economy, and it is expected that the effect of easing credit will be further It appears to help drive market players to restore confidence.
Judging from the financial data in the first two months of this year, the financial data in January increased more than expected, with 3.98 trillion yuan in new credit, the highest in a single month since statistics were available.
New credit in February fell. RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan in the month, a decrease of 125.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the credit structure was not ideal.
Zheshang Securities Research Report stated that the financial data in February was slightly lower than expected, and there were seasonal and temporary factors.
Under the clear policy tone, it is expected that the central bank will continue to ease credit in the near future. March is a big month at the end of the quarter, and it is expected that the financial data in January will continue to have a good start. There is a high probability that the financing of credit unions will exceed expectations. With the recovery of the economy, the financial data in March will It continued to show an increase in total volume, structural improvement, and outstanding performance.
Tao Jin said that it is expected that the scale of new loans in March will continue to increase under the continuous guidance of the policy, but the impulse effect behind it is still large, so the improvement of the credit structure may be limited, especially the residential sector credit and medium and long-term corporate loans. growth rate will not increase significantly.
From this point of view, the effect of policy guidance and promotion may continue to weaken, resulting in a continued slowdown in the year-on-year loan growth. It is estimated that the scale of new loans in March will be about 2.2 trillion yuan.
Wang Youxin believes that in order to better serve the development of the real economy, it is expected that the credit issuance of financial institutions will continue to be positive, and will continue to increase credit issuance to areas such as inclusive finance, small and micro enterprises, green development, and high-end manufacturing, and credit to the real estate industry. Support will also maintain a reasonable growth, driving the growth of new loans.
RRR cuts still possible
After the release of financial data in February, the market's expectations for a reduction in the reserve ratio and interest rate have increased.
However, until now the central bank has not lowered the reserve ratio.
And the central bank did not adjust the operating interest rate when it launched the medium-term lending facility (MLF) in the middle of this month, and the loan market quoted rate (LPR) anchored with it also remained unchanged.
On March 16, the central bank made a clear statement when conveying the spirit of the special meeting of the Financial Committee of the State Council, "The monetary policy must be proactively responded, new loans must maintain moderate growth, vigorously support small, medium and micro enterprises, firmly support the development of the real economy, and keep the economy operating at a stable level. Reasonable range." Therefore, analysts generally expect that the next RRR cut and interest rate cuts can still be expected, and there is room.
Tao Jin said that in terms of RRR cuts, the long-term funds of financial institutions have been tightened since this year, which is related to the strengthening of credit issuance in the early stage. From this point of view, some long-term funds need to be supplemented, and MLF and other operations are more rigid. In the context of the continued increase in the policy of stabilizing growth , there is room for RRR cuts, or a comprehensive RRR cut will be implemented in the first half of the year.
In terms of interest rate cuts, there seems to be little room for the reduction of short-term policy interest rates, because the current short-term liquidity is still reasonably sufficient, and the reduction of medium and long-term capital costs may be necessary. There is room for MLF reduction. There is also space.
"From the perspective of internal and external situations, there is currently the possibility of reducing the reserve ratio, but the time window for interest rate cuts is gradually narrowing. According to the recent speech of Fed Chairman Powell, the Fed may adopt more aggressive tightening policies in follow-up operations to control the rise in inflation. In May It is possible to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at one time and start the process of shrinking the balance sheet. As the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrows, cross-border capital flows will face certain pressure, which may have a certain impact on the financial market.” Wang Youxin believes that in order to ensure the smooth operation of the market , it can be considered to increase liquidity supply through RRR cuts or targeted RRR cuts in April, reduce corporate financing costs, give more support to the real economy, better protect financial market trends, and maintain financial stability.