After the rebound, how will the A-share market be interpreted?

  The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities companies. Most of them believe that with the clear policy signal, although the market will still have repeated risks in the short-term, it is no longer necessary to be overly pessimistic. The stage similar to the previous sharp decline may have ended.

At the same time, in the context of obvious improvement in some market concerns, it is possible to grasp the resonance rise of value growth.

  CICC said that it is no longer necessary to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of A shares.

Recently, the market may be in a bottoming period, and the trading volume may shrink. Although the market still has repeated risks in the short-term, the stage similar to the sharp decline in the previous period may have ended.

  China Securities also pointed out that with the clear policy signal, the panic has passed.

Superimposed on the improvement of the external environment and the easing of depreciation worries, the market is optimistic in the short term.

  CITIC Securities believes that with the full clarity of internal and external anxiety factors in the market and the end of irrational emotional venting, the A-share market will return to normal, and then the resonant rise in value growth can be grasped.

  In terms of allocation, steady growth is still the main line that securities companies are optimistic about.

  Haitong Securities pointed out that steady growth will be the main line of the market to fill the pits.

The force of the growth stabilization policy is expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment.

Among them, new infrastructure will be the balance point between short-term stable growth and medium- and long-term economic structural adjustment.

  CITIC Securities also suggested that investors continue to stick to the main line of steady growth and make a balanced layout around the "two lows".

One is the variety whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, and the other is the variety whose valuation is relatively low.

  However, CITIC Construction Investment Securities reminded investors to have reasonable expectations for the follow-up space of the market rebound.

CITIC Securities: Grasp the Resonance Rising Market

  Looking forward to the market outlook, as the internal and external anxiety factors become clear, the irrational emotional venting has ended; the economic situation is generally stable, and the follow-up precise control measures of the epidemic will gradually reduce the impact on the economy; the implementation of overseas interest rate hikes and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine gradually become clear, and the negative impact will be weakened; the A-share market will return to normal, and the resonant rise in value growth can be grasped.

  Specifically, first of all, the Financial Committee fully responded to market concerns, and the determination to stabilize the capital market was clear; the irrational panic caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was eliminated after the call between the leaders of China and the United States.

  Secondly, the economic data from the first two months shows that the economy is still resilient, policies in the real estate sector still need to be strengthened, and guidelines for epidemic prevention and control and diagnosis and treatment are constantly being optimized. The negative impact on the economy will gradually weaken in the future.

  Once again, the Fed's interest rate hike has landed, and the market has had clear expectations for the path to raise interest rates or shrink the balance sheet this year. The evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly clear, or an agreement may be reached.

  Finally, after the financial committee meeting, the liquidity pressure was significantly relieved, and the market as a whole was in a low valuation range.

  In terms of allocation, on the whole, under the influence of the superposition of internal and external anxiety factors, after the short-term extreme emotional catharsis ends, the A-share market will return to the normal state driven by fundamental logic. It is recommended that investors continue to stick to the main line of stable growth and focus on "Two lows" balanced layout.

One is the variety whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, and the other is the variety whose valuation is relatively low.

CICC: The market has entered the grinding stage

  In general, although the market still has repeated risks in the short-term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of A shares.

Recently, the market may be in a bottoming period, and the trading volume may shrink, but the stage similar to the previous sharp decline may have ended.

  Specifically, at the current point in time, positive factors from five aspects are gradually accumulating.

First, the Financial Committee responded to the economic situation and capital market issues, and talked about the topics of steady growth, real estate, Chinese concept stocks, and the platform economy. The relevant policies are expected to be implemented gradually in the future.

  Second, the heads of state of China and the United States exchanged views on China-US relations and the situation in Ukraine, which is expected to partially ease the market's previous concerns about China-US relations and the international situation.

  Third, as the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased slightly, international oil prices have recently fallen back to the level in early March, and stagflation expectations have weakened marginally.

  Fourth, the first U.S. interest rate hike came to fruition, U.S. stocks rebounded, U.S. bonds fell, and the U.S. dollar weakened. The marginal impact on A-shares is also expected to weaken.

  Fifth, after the previous adjustment, the valuation of A-shares has returned to a relatively low level in history. The periodical low point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index corresponds to a relatively extreme bottom period in the history of the valuation level. Recently, the scale of net reduction of major shareholders and executives is obvious. Narrowed, the scale and quantity of the company's repurchase increased.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities: short-term optimism

  Looking ahead, with the clear policy signal, the panic has passed.

After the quick repair, the follow-up can seize the structural opportunity of the short-term quarterly report.

Among them, the short-term optimistic judgment.

  Several meetings such as the Financial Committee have been held one after another, indicating that the bottom of the current round of declining policies has emerged, market confidence has been restored, and the deterioration of liquidity has been alleviated.

Other factors that the market worries about have also improved significantly, such as: changes in epidemic prevention thinking, improvement in the external environment, and ease of devaluation worries.

The market has changed from cautious to neutral in the medium term, and is optimistic in the short term.

  In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors have reasonable expectations for the follow-up space of the market rebound, and focus on grasping the structure.

At present, we can focus on industries such as medicine, electronics, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, and new energy.

Guotai Junan Securities: Back to shock

  After the pessimistic expectations of the market were initially corrected at the special meeting of the Financial Committee, the market bottomed out and the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3,200 points.

However, in the future, although the market is expected to recover from a sharp decline in the short term under the catalysis of the gold stability meeting, the trend of the opportunity still needs to wait.

  On the one hand, the substantive and effective plan for stabilizing the economy is still vague in the financial statements, and there are still uncertainties in the path and rhythm of the stabilization of economic expectations from "idea" to "implementation", and a complete prescription is still the current investment. the core concern of weaker economic expectations for the economy.

  On the other hand, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25BP, and the short-term worries about the boots falling, but the uncertainty of the pace of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions in the future is still high.

The Sino-US cloud meeting on Friday released a positive signal, but overseas geopolitical conflicts and Sino-US frictions have not seen significant marginal improvement.

  In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors focus on low-risk characteristics and look for the intersection of low valuation and profitability improvement.

Among them, the focus can be on stocks with low risk characteristics, the intersection of low valuation and profitability improvement, and the focus of industry selection is on consumption and cyclical sectors.

Haitong Securities: Steady growth will be the main line of the market

  Looking forward to the overall trend of the market this year, there is a high probability that 2022 will be a volatile market.

Since the beginning of the year, the market depth adjustment has created a deep pit. As of March 18, the largest decline in the CSI 300 this year has reached 20.5%.

However, with the positive changes in the market environment, the market will enter a pit-filling market in the future.

  On March 15, my country's economic data from January to February was released, and the data in the fields of investment, consumption and production were better than expected, but this does not mean that the policy of stabilizing growth will weaken.

The government work report pointed out that the economic growth rate of about 5.5% will require hard work to achieve, and the policy of stabilizing growth will be further strengthened in the future.

Therefore, steady growth will be the main line of this pit-filling market.

  Looking ahead, the policy of stabilizing growth is expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment.

Among them, "new infrastructure" is the balance point between short-term stable growth and medium- and long-term economic structural adjustment, and it is the important tool for China's economy to move towards high-quality development and innovative development. It is recommended to focus on the low-carbon economy and digital economy.

In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the undervalued financial real estate sector, which has greater potential for securities companies.

Huatai Securities: Waiting patiently for the rebound to reverse

  Since December 2021, A shares have experienced a "three-stage" decline, breaking the strong support level of the main broad-based index in July 2020, and forming a medium- and long-term value bottom.

However, the sentiment of northbound funds and financing funds that have rebounded for three days since March 16 is not strong, and the comprehensive internal and external financial conditions faced by the market in the future are still neutral.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, the follow-up rebound needs to focus on the return sentiment of northbound funds.

The market rebound space is temporarily anchored by the annual performance growth rate of non-financial A shares: in terms of time, the key to the rebound from the rebound to the reversal is the performance inflection point of non-financial A shares; in terms of space, the reversal needs to consider the growth rate of performance next year, internal and external comprehensive financial changes in conditions.

  In terms of allocation, after the general oversold, the advantages and disadvantages of inter-segment valuations are not prominent, and the focus is on the comparative demand boom.

On the one hand, it is recommended to focus on track manufacturing with consistent and strong macro and meso data, focusing on photovoltaic wind power, digital infrastructure, automotive intelligence, and semiconductors.

On the other hand, where the strong demand will be in the future depends on who has the best cash flow and where the money will be used from last year. Metal.

China Merchants Securities: short-term stage bottom formation

  At present, the valuation of the A-share market has reached near the lowest level in history, and the financial committee meeting has revived market confidence, and a short-term stage bottom is formed. It is recommended that investors deploy various upstream links that benefit from the steady growth policy.

As the growth rate of new social financing accelerates and external factors ease, A-shares are expected to usher in a new round of upward cycle starting point.

  In terms of industry allocation, with the steady growth policy, real estate plus infrastructure investment will bring more opportunities to finance and upstream resource products. The low-valued combination of "bank + real estate" will still be catalyzed by policy; upstream profitability will continue to be Improvements are particularly noteworthy.

In addition, the increase in government spending will increase the demand for "new energy infrastructure" - photovoltaic wind power storage hydrogen energy, and digital infrastructure will also bring demand for IDC, big data cloud computing and other fields.

  In general, the current trend of "demand comes from steady growth, and profits go upstream" is very obvious. Investors are advised to deploy various upstream links that benefit from the steady growth policy. In the upcoming quarterly report season, there will be better performance.

  In addition, with the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Green Buildings and Building Energy Efficiency and other related policies, it is expected that green buildings will continue to develop rapidly.

Caitong Securities: Growth will be the main direction of the counterattack

  March and April are the peak periods for the release of annual reports and quarterly reports. Recently, many companies have released their operating data for January and February in advance.

  Among them, it is recommended to focus on the direction of good performance: first, periodic products such as pesticides and fertilizers in basic chemicals, industrial metal copper in non-ferrous metals, and second, batteries and auto parts in the semiconductor chain, photovoltaic, and new energy chain that are growing in technology. The third is the big financial city commercial bank and rural commercial bank.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, the main direction of this round of counterattacks mainly focuses on the previous adjustment, the policy catalyst to ease investors' concerns, and the

  direction of greater elasticity.

The growth of the first quarterly report will be the main direction of the counterattack. You can pay attention to Hong Kong stocks and China Concept Internet, photovoltaics, wind power, new energy chains, and automotive chips related to intelligent driving.

Ping An Securities: A-shares are expected to usher in the bottom repair stage in the short term

  The Financial Committee meeting on March 16 set the tone and the following voices from many ministries and commissions stabilized market expectations in a timely manner. Affected by this, the equity market ushered in an oversold rebound. In the A-share market, the real estate, non-bank finance, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the gains. .

  In the short term, the meeting of the domestic financial committee and the dialogue between the leaders of China and the United States have played a relatively positive role in stabilizing market expectations. The market's previous concerns that the rapid decline may lead to liquidity risks will also benefit from relief, and A shares are expected to usher in a bottom repair in the short term. stage.

  However, under the background that the spread of the epidemic has dragged down consumption, production, and the start of infrastructure construction, and the demand for real estate is still weak, the domestic fundamental pressure is not expected to reverse, and the pace of market participation still needs to be controlled.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to choose industries and companies with relatively high prosperity. You can pay attention to high-end manufacturing, new infrastructure, pharmaceutical sectors, inflation-beneficial sectors, etc. At the same time, you should also pay attention to preventing industries and companies whose fundamentals have deteriorated significantly.

Huaxi Securities: A shares are expected to continue the "oversold" rebound

  Since the beginning of this year, the market has continued to decline, due to the disturbance caused by the deterioration of the external geopolitical environment, the instability of domestic macro policy expectations, the abnormal fluctuation of Chinese stocks, the reflection of problems in the Internet platform and real estate in the capital market and other factors.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, the recent meeting of the State Council's Financial Committee, the "One Bank and Two Sessions", the Foreign Exchange Bureau, the postponement of the real estate tax, and the video call between the leaders of China and the United States, the market's pessimistic expectations have been restored, and the Shanghai Index is around 3000-3100. bottom of.

  Therefore, under the monetary policy pattern of "external tightness and internal looseness", there is still room for domestic RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and A shares are expected to continue the "oversold" rebound.

How far the market goes in this round depends on multiple factors: on the one hand, the strength and continuity of the domestic protection policy;

  In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to three main lines: first, those benefiting from the marginal relaxation of policies, such as banks and real estate; second, agriculture, gold, etc. that benefit from inflation expectations; third, policy-driven themes, such as new energy, semiconductors, Eastern Digital Western and so on.