From the Bundesbank's point of view, the war in Ukraine is likely to slow down the economy in Germany.
From today's perspective, the strong recovery planned for the second quarter will be "significantly weaker", the Bundesbank announced in its most recent monthly report published on Monday.
However, the extent of the consequences is very uncertain and depends on the further course of events.
From March onwards, the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine would have a noticeable impact on economic activity in Germany.
According to the Bundesbank experts, the supply chain problems will intensify again in the current month.
Moreover, due to the war and the sanctions imposed by the West, the prices for energy resources have already risen massively.
That will slow down private household consumption and the production of energy-intensive industries.
"In combination with the foreseeable impairments in foreign trade and the increased uncertainty, the consequences of the war are likely to significantly weaken the economic recovery that was actually expected," the Bundesbank suspects.
However, the first quarter is only affected for a limited period of time.
"Economic output could roughly stagnate."
The German central bank also expects prices to continue to rise.
"Due to the war in Ukraine, the inflation rate is likely to rise further in the coming months, which is likely to be due in particular to energy prices," write the experts.
Consumer prices have recently risen sharply.
The Institute for the World Economy (IfW) now expects an inflation rate of 5.8 percent for this year.
This means that inflation would be higher than ever before in reunified Germany.