New crown antigen self-testing, new crown prevention and treatment drug research and development, CXO has growth potential——
The new crown prevention and control industry chain: swarming out, the competition is fierce
On March 13, the State Food and Drug Administration approved another 5 companies to launch new crown antigen self-test products. So far, a total of 10 new crown antigen self-test products have been officially launched.
Not only the self-testing products of the new crown antigen have attracted the attention of the industry and the market, but all media reporters from Guangzhou Daily have found that, in fact, since the beginning of this year, there have been details in the new crown prevention and control industry chain, including new crown prevention and treatment drugs and CXO (pharmaceutical industry chain outsourcing services). Sub-sectors are also developing rapidly.
However, from the perspective of the industry: Investors pay attention to hot spots but cannot blindly pursue them. Risks such as fierce competition in competitive products and cyclical market fluctuations cannot be underestimated.
Text, pictures, tables/All media reporter of Guangzhou Daily Tu Duanyu Wang Chuhan
New crown detection: 14 listed companies achieve double increase in revenue and profit
The market opened on March 14, and the stock prices of several listed companies with new crown antigen self-testing products approved for listing have soared.
Also on the 14th, Rejing Bio and Lepu Medical also successively announced that the company's new crown antigen self-test product was approved for listing, and the stock price rose accordingly.
Relevant staff of the securities department of Rejing Biotech said on the 14th that the company will actively plan and arrange production according to the existing production capacity, and Meinian Health Group will become the core partner of Rejing Bio’s new crown antigen detection product sales channel.
Regarding the price issue, the person said that it should be considered based on several factors, including the development speed of the epidemic, the guidance of relevant domestic policies, and the price of raw materials. At present, the ex-factory price of the company's products has not yet been determined.
Relevant staff of Lepu Medical Securities Department said that the approved antigen self-test products were mainly sold overseas, but have not been sold in China. Therefore, the sales channels, sales prices, delivery areas and other information of the products have not yet been determined, and it will take a while. It's a matter of time, but it will definitely be listed as soon as possible.
According to data from the choice of Oriental Fortune, as of March 14, there were 52 A-share listed companies with the concept of new crown testing, and 20 of them disclosed their 2021 annual reports.
Among them, 14 listed companies achieved a year-on-year double increase in total operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.
The reporter noticed that the performance of the new crown detection concept stocks is significantly polarized. In 2021, the total operating income and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company will increase by more than 100% year-on-year.
The 2021 annual report performance flash report shows that during the reporting period, Rejing Bio achieved a total operating income of 5.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 946.14%.
At the same time, Tianrui Instruments, Huada Gene and Leizhi Group achieved a year-on-year decline of more than -20% in net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.
New crown prevention and treatment drugs: R&D expenses have increased, and the company's net profit growth has been positive and negative
In terms of new crown prevention and treatment drugs, due to the increase in research and development expenses, the net profit growth of related companies has been positive and negative.
According to data from the choice of Oriental Fortune, as of March 14, there were 28 A-share listed companies with new crown prevention and treatment drugs, and 10 of them disclosed their 2021 annual reports.
Among them, 6 listed companies achieved a year-on-year double increase in total operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company.
Specifically, the 2021 annual report performance report shows that during the reporting period, Maiwei Bio is expected to achieve a total operating income of 16 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 206.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of -772 million yuan. -20.19%.
In this regard, Maiwei Bio announced that during the reporting period, all the company's research products were in the research and development stage, and commercial sales have not yet been launched, and the company's products have not yet achieved sales revenue.
The company continues to invest a lot of money in pre-clinical research and clinical trials of the products under development. During the reporting period, the company's research and development costs were relatively high as many of the company's research products were newly advanced to the clinical research stage.
In addition to Maiwei Bio, Zhijiang Bio and Frontier Bio have achieved a year-on-year increase of more than -15% in net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2021. Regarding the reasons for the change in net profit, both Zhijiang Bio and Frontier Bio mentioned R&D expenses. Increase.
Among them, Frontier Bio said that during the reporting period, the research and development expenses were about 160 million to 180 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.53% to 29.97%, mainly due to the increase in investment in research products and reserve R&D projects during the reporting period.
Pharmaceutical outsourcing services: orders continue to be signed, and the domestic CXO industry is busy
As an important link in the pharmaceutical industry chain for the prevention and treatment of the new crown, China has considerable strength in pharmaceutical outsourcing services, namely CXO, and many leading companies have signed a number of huge orders this year.
At the same time that the State Food and Drug Administration approved Pfizer's oral new coronavirus treatment drugs with conditions, Proton shares disclosed that the company received a new batch of "Purchase Orders" from Pfizer Ireland Pharmaceuticals, a subsidiary of Pfizer, and the company will provide its Provide contract custom development and production (CDMO) services, and the order delivery time is 2022.
As of the date of the announcement, the total amount of newly obtained orders was US$681 million, exceeding 50% of the company's audited operating income in the most recent fiscal year.
On the afternoon of February 20, Asymchem, one of the CXO giants, issued an announcement on signing major contracts for daily operations.
The company stated that the total amount of the contract is about 3.542 billion yuan. The performance of the contract will have a positive impact on the company's operating income and operating profit in 2022. The company will recognize the revenue in the corresponding accounting period according to the performance obligations of this contract and the revenue recognition principle. .
When Merck and Pfizer successively announced the positive test data of new crown prevention and treatment drugs, many companies successively announced that they had received "mysterious large orders", or because of their optimism that domestic CXO companies are expected to undertake production orders for new crown prevention and treatment drugs, the market also gave Positive feedback, after the CXO sector ushered in a collective rise.
An industry insider believes that it will be more difficult for some CXO companies with lower technical level to receive orders now, and the threshold for this industry will be further raised in the future.
From the perspective of the industry, domestic leading CXO companies have cooperated with many leading European and American pharmaceutical companies for many years, and are speculated by the market that they have undertaken a large number of orders for new crown prevention and treatment drugs. If European and American pharmaceutical companies temporarily change CXO service providers, it means paying high costs, Taking high risks, the market is optimistic about the prospect of undertaking; in addition, not only the orders for new crown prevention and treatment drugs, but also the production of chronic disease drugs, etc., the domestic CXO demand remains unabated, and the industry development still has sufficient momentum.
remind
The technical barriers are not high and are affected by the cyclical fluctuations of the market
According to the analysis of Ping An Securities, the technical barriers of antigen detection products are not high, and the barriers to entry in the short term are mainly composed of registration certificates and supply capacity.
Preliminarily, some companies that have formed formal sales overseas also have better certainty in terms of supply capacity.
Ping An Securities reminded that if related competing products go public and expand production faster than expected, it may lead to increased competition and reduced profitability; in addition, cyclical market fluctuations may have a negative impact on the pharmaceutical industry.
In addition to the approved companies for antigen detection products, the Kaiyuan Securities Research Report pointed out that on the upstream raw material side, on the one hand, it masters the upstream and downstream technologies of biological reagents and actively extends to the downstream end products of biological reagents, with a complete range of products, intensive cultivation of recombinant proteins, antibodies, etc. Companies in the segment will benefit directly.
On the other hand, the demand for polymer consumables manufacturers producing antigen detection sampling tubes, especially those relying on the advantages of polymer consumables production line technology and mold development, will further release production capacity; in the retail terminals of antigen detection kits, there are stores The leading pharmacy company with widely distributed characteristics is expected to bring greater profit margins due to its scale effect.
Huaan Securities analyzed that the upstream, midstream and downstream industry chains of the new crown antigen detection industry have great potential.
Specifically, its industrial chain can be divided into upstream raw materials, midstream product manufacturing and downstream terminal sales.
According to the industry-related gross profit margin level, the gross profit distribution of the industry is estimated. After the calculation, the terminal sales price is used as the base, and the proportion of upstream, midstream and downstream gross profit is 14%, 24% and 60% respectively.
Debon Securities believes that the new crown therapeutic drug market is expected to reach the level of 100 billion yuan, which is the most important investment sector after the new crown vaccine and new crown testing; Founder Securities believes that while the epidemic prevention and control is still in progress, it is recommended that investors consider focusing on the allocation of the epidemic Related assets, and not only limited to the current popular new crown antigen self-test.