【People's Livelihood Investigation Bureau】
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China-Singapore Finance, March 16 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) 6 yuan per catty!
When the price of live pigs falls to a low level, pig farming enterprises are facing a situation of "selling one head and losing one head".
The price of live pigs fell to about 6 yuan per catty
"I wanted to raise some pigs to subsidize my family, but I couldn't sell it at all, and I lost 80,000 directly last year." Lao Zhang, who lives in Zhumadian City, Henan Province, told a reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics.
Faced with the purchase price of 5 or 6 yuan per pound, he was already considering whether to give up the sideline business of raising pigs.
Data map.
Photo by Chen Yongnuo
Not only pig farmers suffered heavy losses, but large-scale breeding enterprises also suffered losses.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics found that the performance of pig breeding companies that have disclosed performance information generally declined or lost money.
For example, the 2021 annual performance forecast disclosed by Zhengbang Technology shows that the estimated net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 18.2 billion to 19.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 416.84% to 442.96% over the same period of the previous year.
The amount of loss ranked first among pig breeding enterprises.
Entering 2022, the situation has not improved, and the price of "Second Senior Brother" has fallen further.
The live pig sales briefing released by Muyuan Co., Ltd. shows that from January to February 2022, the average sales price of the company's commercial pigs is 12.38 yuan/kg, down 16.07% from December 2021.
From January to February 2022, the overall price of commercial pigs will show a downward trend.
According to the price information of live pigs and feed jointly released by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhuochuang Information, in the first week of March, the national pig feed price ratio was 3.74, a month-on-month decrease of 3.36%.
Based on the current price and cost, the average loss of live pig breeding in the future will be 205.33 yuan.
Pork prices also fell
The fall in the price of live pigs has also driven down the price of pork.
According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from February 28 to March 6, the average ex-factory price of white strips was 18.93 yuan/kg, down 1.6% month-on-month and 50.7% year-on-year.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics visited many supermarkets in Beijing and found that pork prices have dropped in recent times.
In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, the price of the front buttocks and rear buttocks is 12.9 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly is 16.8 yuan per catty. Compared with two months ago, the price per catty has dropped by about two yuan.
"The front tip with the skin is 6.98 yuan per catty, the pork belly is 8.99 yuan per catty, the front elbow is 9.98 yuan per catty, and the back elbow is 7.99 yuan per catty." This is the price of pork in a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Pork prices in a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan
When a reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics visited here in mid-January, the price tag also showed that the front tip with the skin was 8.98 yuan per pound, and the back elbow was 9.98 yuan per pound.
Why is the price of pigs bottoming out again?
"This is mainly affected by both supply and demand." Feng Yonghui, an analyst in the pig industry, told Zhongxin Finance and Economics reporter.
"In terms of demand, on the one hand, it is now in the off-season of seasonal consumption. During the Spring Festival, the south makes bacon and Beijing kills pigs, which has overdrawn part of the post-holiday demand." Feng Yonghui said, "On the other hand, one-third of pork consumption is in The catering industry, the epidemic has affected the catering industry, which in turn has affected pork consumption."
"In terms of supply, since the production capacity of breeding sows has started to decline since July 2021, this also means that the supply of pork will not start to decline until May and June this year, and it is still at a high level of supply." Feng Yonghui said.
According to Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of last year, there were 449 million live pigs in the country, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
Therefore, the pork market supply must be at a high level in the first half of this year.
Data map.
Photo courtesy of Changchun Customs
The price may continue to fall, and the official start of the third batch of pork purchase and storage this year
Recently, the symposium of live pig enterprises held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs mentioned that the price of live pigs is in a downward channel, and the price of bulk feed raw materials continues to rise. At present, the price ratio of pig grains has entered the first-level warning range for excessive decline, and it is expected that prices will be under downward pressure in the next two months. still larger.
"In March and April, the price of pigs may drop to the bottom of about 12 yuan per kilogram, and the degree of loss in breeding will increase." Chen Guanghua said.
In Feng Yonghui's view, the deep drop in live pig prices will continue for some time.
"However, when the supply of live pigs declines in May and June this year, the price of live pigs may rebound."
"On the whole, the production capacity release and superimposed demand are not good. In addition, the low points of the previous pig cycles have appeared around May. It is expected that the low point of live pig prices in 2022 will appear in April-June, and the market may improve in the second half of the year." Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Ma Liyuan said.
In order to stabilize the price of live pigs in the market, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on March 15 that it will work with relevant departments to start the third batch of central frozen pork reserves this year, and guide all localities to speed up the procurement and storage.
It will continue to work with relevant departments to adjust the reserves, and if necessary, further increase the purchase and storage efforts, promote the return of live pig prices to a reasonable range, and promote the smooth operation of the live pig market.
Have you bought pork recently?
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