Zhongxin Finance, March 14th (Shi Rui) The old man and the old man, the old man, the young man and the young man, and the young man are the life visions of the ancients.

Nowadays, the old and the young are also concerned by the government. In this year's "Government Work Report", the content of old-age care and childbirth has been mentioned several times.

  Zhongxin Finance and the National Development Institute of Peking University launched the "Two Sessions Economic Observation". Lei Xiaoyan, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the National Development Institute of Peking University and Director of the Healthy Ageing and Development Research Center, accepted the topic of pension and childbirth. Observation" column interview.

Lei Xiaoyan, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the National Development Institute of Peking University and Director of the Center for Healthy Ageing and Development.

Photo courtesy of National School of Development, Peking University

The aging population will change the economic structure

  In 2021, the number of births in China will decline for five consecutive years, with a birth rate of 7.52‰; there will be 200 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 14.2% of the national population.

  In this regard, Lei Xiaoyan said that it was not expected that the fertility rate would drop to a lower level all of a sudden.

"Rapid aging and low birthrate have become the characteristics of my country's aging society, so we need to build a fertility-friendly and old-age-friendly society as soon as possible."

  She analyzed that aging is mainly affected by two aspects. First, the life expectancy of my country's population is getting higher and higher, which is a good thing; second, the fertility rate continues to decline. The willingness to bear children, but objective factors lead to no childbearing, such as the influence of factors such as childbearing, parenting, and education costs.

  Lei Xiaoyan believes that aging will have a certain negative impact on economic development, so it should be paid enough attention by the society.

Its most direct impact is to have an impact on the labor market—the supply of labor is reduced, and the demographic dividend is gradually fading; in addition, the increase in the aging population will also reduce the social savings rate and capital formation rate, and change the economic structure.

The old-age insurance system is in urgent need of reform

  Facing the growing trend of an aging population, building an age-friendly society has been on the agenda.

This year's "Government Work Report" proposed to promote aging-appropriate transformation; make up for the shortcomings of geriatric medicine services; increase the construction of community pension facilities; appropriately raise pension standards; and steadily implement national overall planning of basic pension insurance for enterprise employees.

  In her view, the reform of the pension insurance system is particularly important.

In the early days of my country's pension insurance, the "pay-as-you-go system" was used, that is, the pensions paid by young people were paid to the current elderly. The ability to pay under this system is greatly affected by the demographic structure: there are fewer young people and more elderly people. , which means that fewer people pay social security, more pension expenditures, and more pressure on pensions.

Not to mention that we are still raising the pension standard every year, so we must consider how to reform the pension insurance system.

  Lei Xiaoyan believes that the "Government Work Report" clearly and steadily implements the national overall planning of the basic endowment insurance for enterprise employees has several advantages. First, the current freedom of population movement and the uneven development of different regions may cause pressure on pension payments in some regions, and pensions may be under pressure. The opening up of funds across the country will help to make the distribution more balanced and more sustainable; second, the pension fund will be pooled across the country, enabling pensions to be portable, which in turn will help population mobility; third, after the nationwide pooling of funds is implemented, the pension fund pool will become larger. Market-oriented investment and operation have the advantage of scale.

The special deduction of personal tax for the care expenses of infants and young children under the age of 3 releases a positive signal

  The superposition of aging and low birthrate has brought certain pressure on society, so how should we deal with it?

  Lei Xiaoyan believes that it is necessary to start with fertility, but with the development of the economy, there will also be a natural decline in the willingness to bear children, and it is difficult to change this process in the short term. needs of fertile populations.

The implementation of the three-child birth policy is to relax certain constraints from the birth policy.

  "The actual implementation of the three-child birth policy is not much different from the comprehensive liberalization of the birth policy. According to our previous surveys in urban and rural areas, most respondents' willingness is to have one or two children, and the proportion of family planning three children is very low. There are very few four children." Lei Xiaoyan told Zhongxin Finance that people's concept of fertility is changing, whether in urban or rural areas, not just to raise children, but to provide children with better education, more good life.

  Therefore, she believes that the cost of fertility, parenting, and education has become the main factor affecting everyone's childbirth, and this part of the pressure is currently mainly reflected on women.

International research shows that, from a labor market perspective, childbirth has a 20% greater wage impact on mothers than fathers.

  The "Government Work Report" proposes to improve the supporting measures for the three-child birth policy, include the care expenses of infants and young children under the age of 3 as a special additional deduction for individual income tax, and develop inclusive childcare services through multiple channels to reduce the burden of family birth, parenting, and education.

  In this regard, Lei Xiaoyan believes that the special additional deduction for individual tax has released a positive signal - the government is concerned about the burden of infant care and is supporting this.

At the same time, she believes that the development of inclusive childcare services can effectively reduce the burden of family rearing and is an indispensable policy measure for building a fertility-friendly society.

(over)