These are figures that are likely to worry many French people... The growth of the French economy should be reduced in 2022 by 0.5 to 1.1 percentage points by the war in Ukraine, which will also cause more inflation, according to two scenarios presented on Sunday by the Banque de France.
Two scenarios... depending on the price of oil
The French gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.4% in 2022 if the price of oil averages over the year at 93 dollars, but by only 2.8% if this price reaches 119 dollars, specified the central bank which indicated that without the war, it would have raised its growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.9%.
The consequences of the war will be felt on the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which should reach 3.7% this year, according to the first scenario, and 4.4% according to the second.
This inflation indicator, which allows comparisons at European level and takes energy prices into account more than the national consumer price index (CPI) put forward by INSEE, rose to 4.1% over one year in France in February, but according to the models carried out by the Banque de France before the war, it should return to around 2% before the end of 2022.
Inflation between 3.7 and 4.4% in 2022
Inflation will remain "high throughout 2022" due in particular to the consequences of the war in Ukraine, reaching according to two distinct scenarios 3.7% or 4.4%, the Banque de France estimated on Sunday.
High inflation will be fueled by energy prices but also those of food whose rate of increase "should increase significantly in the coming months", according to the central bank.
And then ?
For 2023 and 2024, the Banque de France forecasts that growth, which again benefits this year from a strong gain from the start of the year, will decrease to 2% then to 1.4% in the first scenario qualified as “conventional”, and at 1.3% then 1.1% in the second called “gradient”.
The central bank now expects inflation to decline to 1.9% in 2023 and then to 1.7% in the conventional scenario, but remain high at 3.3% next year before falling again to 1.5% in 2024 in the so-called "degraded" scenario.
Three sectors of the economy affected
Olivier Garnier, the director general of the institution, specified during a press conference that the “two scenarios are possible”, adding that he was unable “to say which is the most probable” and that there could be have others.
The Banque de France has thus not calculated the effect that a halt in Russian gas and oil supplies would have.
The negative shocks of the conflict on the French economy are also of three types: increase in the prices of energy and raw materials, reduction in consumption and investment, as well as a reduction in demand addressed to the France which will affect foreign trade, further indicates the Banque de France.
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War in Ukraine
Economy
purchasing power
Inflation
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