China-Singapore Jingwei, March 12 (Dong Xiangyi) A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in February 2022.

China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that the year-on-year increase in CPI in 17 provinces in February was lower than the national level, and Tibet was the lowest, with a decrease of 0.2%.

17. The price increase in land is lower than that of the whole country

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2022, the national consumer price rose by 0.9% year-on-year.

  Among the 31 provinces in terms of CPI growth, Ningxia topped the list with a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and only Tibet fell by 0.2% year-on-year.

In 17 provinces, including Shanxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Henan, price increases were lower than the national level.

The price level in Hebei is the same as that of the whole country.

The year-on-year CPI growth of 12 provinces including Qinghai, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Beijing, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangxi, and Hainan was in the "1 era".

  Data show that in February, the national consumer price rose 0.6% month-on-month.

Among them, the prices of fresh vegetables, aquatic products, and fresh fruits increased significantly, up 6%, 4.8% and 3% month-on-month respectively; non-food prices were significantly affected by the rise in international energy prices, up 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

On a year-on-year basis, the year-on-year increase in CPI in February was the same as the previous month, and the price of pork in food fell by 42.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, which was the main short-term drag.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the scissors gap between PPI and CPI further narrowed in February, and the inflation level is still at a relatively moderate level.

What is the future trend of CPI?

  Will CPI rise in March?

The team of Zhongtai Macro Chen Xing believes that since March, the price of pork has continued to decline month-on-month, the price of eggs and fruit has been stable with some decline, and the price of fresh vegetables has rebounded slightly, but international energy prices have continued to rise. .

In terms of PPI, since March, international oil prices have continued to rise sharply, domestic coal prices have diverged, and steel prices have risen.

Taking into account the impact of the rising base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in March was stable and slowed down, but the downward trend will not be too fast.

  Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, believes that the factors driving the CPI recovery are gradually strengthening.

The PPI continued its downward trend year-on-year, but if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to ease in the short term, and the oil price remains high, the downward speed may slow down significantly, and the PPI year-on-year center will rise to 4%-5% during the year.

  This year's government work report proposed that the consumer price increase by about 3%.

Wen Bin believes that my country's inflation level is expected to remain within a controllable range under the control of domestic commodity supply and price stabilization policies, but further attention needs to be paid to future inflation trends.

  "On the one hand, pork prices are still in the process of in-depth adjustment, and the pig cycle-related indicators are estimated according to historical laws, and there is a possibility of reversal in the second half of this year. On the other hand, the high global inflation poses an imported inflation risk to my country, and the increase in PPI The slope of the fall may slow down, and attention should be paid to the impact of the downstream transmission of PPI on the CPI under high conditions. If the price transmission from the production end to the consumer end superimposes a new round of pork price increases to form a resonance, it will cause a larger increase in the CPI. Pressure." Wen Bin said.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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