Securities Times reporter Zhao Liyun
After being affected by the rise in external energy prices in the short term, the domestic coal market retreated ahead of international crude oil prices.
On the morning of March 10, the main thermal coal contract in the domestic futures market once fell by nearly 6%, and in the past three trading days, the largest cumulative decline of the contract has been nearly 16%.
At the same time, the downstream steel market also showed signs of correction.
Domestic coal prices retreat first
With the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, on March 10, the domestic futures market turned green as a whole, and the main crude oil contract 2204 sealed the lower limit. The stainless steel, which had been soaring under the help of "demon nickel", also closed at the lower limit.
In addition to chemicals and non-ferrous commodities, black commodities are also the main force in the market decline on the 10th.
As of the close in the afternoon, thermal coal in the main contract fell by 4.39%, iron ore fell by 3.24%, and coke, coking coal, hot coil, rebar, etc. also showed a downward trend.
Since March, due to geographical factors, international crude oil and other energy prices have risen sharply.
According to the news released by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia, in March 2022, the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal rose to more than US$200/ton again, rising to US$203.69/ton, second only to the US$215.15/ton set in November last year. The highest level in history, continue to maintain high price operation.
As for the domestic coal market, environmental inspections at all production sites became stricter in early March, some mines were suspended for supply to the market, and domestic supply was gradually tightened. In addition, the price of imported coal soared, which once drove the domestic coal price to a significant upward trend.
In the domestic market, taking thermal coal as an example, the main futures contract was quoted at 730 yuan/ton on February 28, and reached a maximum of 939.2 yuan/ton on March 8, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% in just 7 trading days.
In the same period of about a week, the price of the main domestic iron ore contract also rose from a minimum of 682.5 yuan/ton to 874.5 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 28%; the main coking coal contract rose from a minimum of 2516 yuan/ton to 3259.5 yuan/ton. The biggest increase was nearly 30%.
However, before the international crude oil prices fell sharply, the domestic black commodity prices started to decline as a whole on March 8.
In the futures market, since March 8, the main contract price of thermal coal has fallen by nearly 16%; the main contract of iron ore has fallen by nearly 13%; and the main contract of coking coal and coke has also fallen by nearly 10% and 9%, respectively.
On the news, DCE issued a notice that from March 8th trading time (that is, March 7th night trading session), the handling fee rates for related contracts will be adjusted.
Regarding the handling fee standard for iron ore contracts, the daily transaction handling fee standard for iron ore I2203, I2204 and I2205 contracts has been adjusted from 2/10,000 of the transaction amount to 4/10,000.
The National Development and Reform Commission also publicly stated on March 7 that it will accelerate the construction of government dispatchable coal reserves of more than 200 million tons, add more than 5 billion cubic meters of gas storage facilities, and promote the national emergency backup and peaking power supply to reach more than 300 million kilowatts. , and guide key energy production enterprises and major energy users to strengthen social responsibility reserves.
Downstream steel market starts to cool down
Under the weak futures market, the coke spot market is still strong.
According to Lange Steel, on March 9, the third round of the domestic coke market increase was fully implemented.
The quasi-grade metallurgical coke in Handan, Hebei Province was 3,570 yuan, up 200 yuan from the previous trading day.
The quasi-grade metallurgical coke in Linfen, Shanxi Province was 3,340 yuan, an increase of 400 yuan from the previous trading day.
However, driven by the recent increase in the price of imported mines and the emotional impact of overseas tensions, the quotations of mining companies have risen compared with the previous period, and the enthusiasm for shipments has increased.
However, steel companies are more cautious and wait and see, the market transaction activity is low, and most of the resources are circulated in the hands of traders.
Stimulated by policy regulation, the price of finished steel products has also been lowered recently. Due to the rapid and sharp rise of black varieties such as rebar futures in the early stage, the fear of heights has increased, and the terminal and speculative demand has been low. The investment sentiment weakened, which affected the market price down.
It is expected that the coke market will show a wait-and-see atmosphere in the short term, and the upward momentum will weaken temporarily.
According to data from China Steel Network on March 10, 15 of the 24 markets for rebar fell on that day, and the average price of 20mmHRB400E was 4,995 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; 21 of the 24 markets for hot coil fell, 4.75 The average price of hot-rolled coils was 5,238 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; 11 of the 23 medium and heavy plate markets fell, and the average price of 14-20mm medium plate was 5,284 yuan/ton, down from the previous one The trading day was lowered by 8 yuan / ton.
However, the recent upward pressure on coal prices has also been transmitted downstream.
On March 6, the cement price in Henan Province was announced to increase by 50 yuan/ton, and the increase in the cost of raw materials became the main driving force.
A person in the construction industry told a reporter from Securities Times · e company that the recent increase in spot coal prices, tight supply, and rising oil prices have driven transportation costs, and cement production costs have increased.
At the same time, the cement clinker production lines resumed production successively after March, and the demand for raw materials also increased significantly, which further stimulated the current production cost to be higher than the same period last year.
According to Cement.com, the weather in Zhejiang has improved recently, and market demand has recovered rapidly. From March 5, some major manufacturers in the province have notified Jinhua, Quzhou, Lishui and other places in central and southern Zhejiang to raise the price of high-standard cement by 20 yuan / ton.
Since March 9, some major enterprises in Anhui's riverside areas have raised the price of clinker by about 30 yuan/ton in the fourth round of notice. After the adjustment, the FOB price of clinker in large factories along the river is basically around 470-480 yuan/ton.
Guaranteed supply supports off-season highlights
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the country's policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has continued to make efforts to keep domestic coal prices running stably as a whole.
The latest news from the National Development and Reform Commission shows that with the continuous advancement of various measures to stabilize and increase production, the national coal output has maintained a high level.
Since mid-to-late February, the national daily output of coal has remained above 12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 10%, of which the daily output of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has remained above 9 million tons.
The coal storage level of the northern port has been further improved. The coal storage in the national unified adjustment power plant is still at a historical high of 149 million tons in the same period, an increase of more than 30 million tons over the same period last year, and it can be used for 22 days.
Joey of CCTD China Coal Market Network believes that in April, with the recovery of terminal inventory, the pressure of replenishment will be alleviated. In addition, the demand for terminal thermal coal in April will be stable and weak, and the coal supply in the origin will be stable at a high level. It is expected that the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will gradually form, and the market coal price will return to rationality.
On the one hand, the coal supply in the origin will be stable at a relatively high level in April.
On the other hand, in April, as the temperature warms up, the demand for residential electricity will be significantly weakened, and the demand for terminal coal will be stable and weak.
China Steel Network analyzed that after the heating season ended, the demand for coking coal and coke decreased and the supply increased. The current inventory remained at a high level, which played a key role in stabilizing prices. It is expected that the price of coking coal and coke will run weakly in the short term.
Lower raw material prices will also gradually weaken the support for steel prices.
Therefore, it is expected that steel prices will continue to pull back.
Guosen Futures said that on the news, in order to alleviate the global energy tension, various countries released news to reduce oil use, increase oil production, and try to release inventories. Energy tension eased, international crude oil, natural gas and other energy prices fell sharply, and thermal coal was affected its great influence.
Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng Futures and Finance Research Institute, believes that my country, as a country with large coal reserves, can completely independently adjust the supply and demand of the coal market. Therefore, in the context of high overseas energy prices, the current domestic coal price is still in an upside-down situation compared to imported coal.
The domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has generally maintained a reasonable level of fluctuations in coal prices, which is not greatly affected by geographical factors.
After entering mid-March, the heating demand in the northern region is coming to an end, and coal will also enter the off-season.
However, under the background of the country's stable economic growth this year, there is still room for real estate and infrastructure, and downstream industrial production will also increase coal demand.
In the short term, coal prices will show a trend of rising and falling, but they may remain at a mid-to-high level throughout the year.