When I was young, some time ago, in many rooms there was a photo of a US soldier in Vietnam who, having been hit in the back, fell to the ground with his arms outstretched and his gun still in his hand.

Above it was: "Why?" This injured soldier, who was perhaps dying at this moment, never let go of me.

At the moment, this picture captures me with all elemental force.

Why on earth does it have to be war?

I've been chilling for a long time in view of developments in recent years, even more so since the beginning of the war, but especially since Sunday 27 February.

As a former lieutenant in the reserve, I have watched with increasing disbelief over the decades as our country deliberately disarmed our Bundeswehr and emphatically refused the majority of our soldiers even essential things such as protective vests.

And suddenly, on this Sunday night, enormous sums were loosened.

How deep in the swamp must we be if such U-turns are possible?

I hope for miracles, always have.

I can't help it.

It may take a few this time if we're going to fight climate change and not each other in hopefully just cold wars in the coming decade.

The price of CO2 emission allowances traded on the stock exchange shows how closely one is related to the other: in the past few weeks it has fallen by almost 40 percent from almost 100 euros to 60 euros.

At the same time, the broadest US defense index “Amex Defense” rose by 20 percent at its peak.

Because I've seen enough falling or even downright imploding charts in the past, today I want to devote myself to the Defense Index.

His analysis is quick to write: he has been in a clear, intact, unbroken long-term uptrend for years and days.

The probability that such trends will continue is at all times significantly greater than that of a sustainable trend reversal.

This also and especially applies to the Amex Defense Index.

Even better: the sideways movement in the past 15 months between around 7400 and 8800 points clearly confirms the trend.

This is especially true after the exceptionally dynamic rally since February 24th.

In at least seven out of ten cases, this is only the case for charts that want to go further up.

Levels above the magic threshold

The index of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, to name just the best known, will therefore, in my opinion, reach new all-time highs of over 8800 points and will continue to rise thereafter.

Levels around 10,000 points are ideal as a target value: Indices are often attracted by these large round numbers, arrived there, but were also repelled again.

An analytical rule of thumb fits in with this: the distance between the low and the high of a congestion plotted against the breakout level can give a rough idea of ​​where the journey will ultimately take us.

For the Amex Defense, the difference between "up" (8800 points) and "down" (7400 points) is 1400 points.

Saddled onto the potential breakout level at 8800 points,

Can everything turn out differently?

Sure - it can.

But that's not particularly likely.

In at best 30 percent of all cases, a chart like the current one of the Amex Defense Index takes the south exit and comes back sustainably.

For this, the index would first have to fall below the support at 7400 points.

As a technical analyst who judges as objectively as possible, you can hardly count on it.

I would feel a lot better if the Dax looked like the US defense index.

But he doesn't.

This still applies even now, since the Dax and Kurs-Dax have reached my respective target zones of 5150 to 5300 and 12,000 to 12,500 points in record time.

One can hope that both indices have already passed their bearish lows.

But that is not likely – even if the recent recovery were to continue for a longer period of time and at higher prices.

But, I'll take up the introduction to the second paragraph again, also with thanks to Katja Epstein: "There are always miracles, they can happen today or tomorrow!"