The relief was palpable at the "Investment Summit" held by the fund company Gané on Wednesday.

A big increase in the Dax after the recent loss brought relief.

At 1016.42 points, it was the index's largest daily increase in absolute terms and at 7.92 percent on a relative basis it was the sixth largest since 1967.

Martin Hock

Editor in Business.

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Market observers, however, are less optimistic.

Stefan Kreuzkamp, ​​chief investment strategist at fund company DWS, writes that encouraging news about the war in Ukraine triggered the price fireworks.

However, one does not want to count on a quick end to the conflict now.

The full extent of the damage is not yet foreseeable, the fighting rages on unabated, and one remains skeptical about the sincerity of Putin's willingness to negotiate.

And again and again there is talk of the bear market rally, i.e. a sharp rise in prices in a phase in which prices are otherwise falling.

These bear market rallies are common and intrinsic to a bear market.

It's also not uncommon for these to be strong.

After all, 27 of the 50 biggest increases in the Dax in one day took place in such bear phases, and of the ten biggest as many as eight.

Three of them fall into the financial crisis: In October and November 2008, the Dax rose by more than 10 percent on three days.

But even of the remaining 22 record rises, many are associated with a bear market.

No fewer than eleven of these occurred less than four weeks after a bear market ended.

From this it can be concluded that record-breaking daily rallies almost always signal the end of a bear market - only in seven out of ten cases they are false signals.

Psychologically, this is easy to explain, because what investor feels comfortable in a bear market?

Rather, it is always hoped that this will come to an end and one is on the lookout for signs of this - in the majority the wish seems to be the father of the thought.

How deceptively high price gains can be one day was shown not least during the technology bear market.

After all, there were twelve of the 50 biggest price increases between September 2001 and November 2002. In the end, the Dax was almost 12 percent lower than at the beginning.

Eight of these twelve price increases occurred between July and October 2002. During this period, the Dax fell by 30 percent.

The record of the follow-up times of daily rallies is mixed.

On average, the Dax was 0.7 higher 30 days later and 1.9 higher 90 days later than on the record day.

But the scatter is wide: seen over 30 days, the results are between plus and minus 25 percent, over 90 days between minus 31 and plus 41 percent, with price gains and price losses pretty much evenly balanced.

In a bear market rally, prices were down an average of 4.6 percent after 30 days and 11.2 percent 90 days later from the record day's level.

You will only know in retrospect where the past Wednesday will be classified.

However, the current geopolitically uncertain situation calls for caution.

On Thursday it went down again significantly because Wednesday's hopes were frustrated.

The S&P 500 index recorded the tenth strongest increase in points since 1928 on Wednesday. But the increase of 2.57 percent was only enough for 426th place. The American stock market has also lost significantly less than the European one so far.