Price losses on the stock exchanges, production lines in the auto industry standing still, hoarding in supermarkets and ministers rushing from one crisis meeting to the next: Germany is experiencing déjà vu.

Like two years ago, when the first corona lockdown began, the uncertainty is back.

How long will the war in Ukraine last?

To what extent will consumers and companies in this country suffer from the economic consequences?

And how can the government help?

One thing is clear: the hope of normality is not fulfilled.

One crisis is followed by the next.

Julia Loehr

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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Britta Beeger

Editor in Business.

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Svea Junge

Editor in Business.

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According to Stefan Kooths, Vice President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), a recession is not yet imminent.

"At the moment, it can be assumed that the German economy will return to a recovery course after the rough winter months, despite the consequences of the war," he says.

Industry's order books are full, consumers have purchasing power.

But the recovery will get “a significant setback”, he predicts.

And should there be a stop to energy supplies from Russia, the forecasts are obsolete anyway.

Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess is already warning: The consequences of the Ukraine war for the economy could be “much worse” than those of the pandemic.

Researchers were at least able to develop vaccines against corona.

But against Putin?

"Russia Protective Shield"

In addition to the sanctions against Russia, companies are particularly concerned about the increased prices for gas, oil and coal.

Economics and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) is currently being bombarded with many demands.

The Road Haulage Association warns of empty supermarket shelves if the government doesn't subsidize diesel bills.

The family entrepreneurs fear plant closures because in some places production simply no longer pays off.

"The entrepreneurs support the sanctions policy of the federal government, but in view of the gas price crisis they expect a similar liquidity aid as the companies hit by the corona virus," said association president Reinhold von Eben-Worlée.

Habeck has already announced a loan program for companies with liquidity bottlenecks.

Further measures are under discussion.

The first proposals by the EU Commission for a new crisis aid framework are available, a spokeswoman for the ministry said on Friday.

These will now be checked.

Dieter Janecek, economic policy spokesman for the Greens, brings a well-known idea into play: "Are there hardships that are not your fault and that threaten the existence of a company?

Then a hardship fund could help.” Such a fund was also set up during the course of the corona pandemic.

Most of the 1.5 billion euros are still there.

Minister Habeck has repeatedly made it clear these days that the state cannot compensate for all losses and that sanctions do not entail any obligation to compensate.

But after two years of Corona, in which the federal government paid out around 80 billion euros in grants, 55 billion euros in loans and more than 43 billion euros in short-time work benefits, it is not easy to dampen expectations.

After the "bazooka" against the consequences of the Corona virus, there is now talk of a "protective shield against Russia" in Berlin.

Hoping it won't be that expensive.

The economic consequences of the pandemic have turned out to be less bad than initially feared, probably also because of the aid programs.

There was neither mass unemployment nor a wave of bankruptcies.

However, Steffen Müller, head of insolvency research at the Halle Institute for Economic Research, points out that in the event of an insolvent company, more jobs would be affected and there would be a risk of greater income losses.

Because now not only restaurants, retailers and organizers are suffering, but the industry, which contributes a quarter to the gross domestic product (GDP).

Industry is still jerky here and there.

Due to the lack of wiring harnesses from the Ukraine, car manufacturers have to temporarily reduce production.

The supply of toilet paper is stagnating because there is no pulp.

Steel, glass and paper manufacturers are carefully considering whether, in view of the high gas prices, production is still worthwhile or whether they can subsequently negotiate higher prices with their customers.

A third of the gas demand in Germany comes from industry.