Oil prices rise for 6 consecutive days

  In recent days, international crude oil prices have skyrocketed, and domestic refined oil prices have risen for 6 consecutive days, returning to the "8 yuan era".

The next round of refined oil price adjustment will be carried out at 24:00 on March 17. Analysts pointed out that No. 95 gasoline will fully come to the "9 yuan" era.

  Sing more new energy

  Industry experts said: "High oil prices directly push up the daily commuting cost of fuel vehicles, and continue to expand the basis for the further promotion of new energy and even oil-electric hybrid technology."

  car buyers

  Factors such as selling price, car costs, insurance costs, mileage anxiety, safety hazards, and value preservation will be fully considered.

  According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in 2021, the cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles in my country will reach 20.146 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%.

Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.989 million units, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%; traditional fuel vehicles decreased by 6% year-on-year.

  At present, the price of domestic refined oil has been rising for 6 consecutive years. No. 98 gasoline has exceeded 9 yuan. The cost of fuel vehicles has increased significantly. Are new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, more fragrant?

  The Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that although the comments of netizens in the past few days are full of ridicule about oil prices, most of them said that they would not consider buying pure electric vehicles for the time being.

Several consumers who wait and see with money told the Red Star Capital Bureau that they fully consider factors such as selling price, car costs, insurance costs, mileage anxiety, safety hazards, and value preservation. ."

  pure electric vehicle

  The cost of using a car is high, and there is mileage anxiety

  WM Motor CEO Shen Hui posted on Weibo on the evening of March 9, taking this opportunity to recommend new energy vehicles: "According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in five years, the electricity consumed by smart pure electric vehicles can save about 88% of the fuel cost of gasoline vehicles. million."

  In the eyes of many consumers, only pure electric vehicles are the real new energy vehicles.

According to Shen Hui's logic, pure electric vehicles should be selected to save fuel costs when oil prices rise.

  Will oil prices stay high for a long time?

The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday expressed support for OPEC to increase crude oil production, New York crude oil futures plunged 11.46%; Brent crude oil futures plunged 12.09%.

  In addition, my country's refined oil implements the "floor price" and "ceiling price" mechanisms. When the international oil price is lower than US$40/barrel and higher than US$130/barrel, the domestic refined oil price will no longer be adjusted.

  However, the "Petroleum Management Measures" stipulates that when the crude oil price in the international market is higher than 130 US dollars (inclusive) / barrel, the gasoline and diesel prices are not mentioned or less mentioned in principle.

That is to say, even if the international oil price exceeds the "ceiling price", the domestic oil price may still increase.

  Some car owners told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the cost of using pure electric vehicles is higher than expected.

"Generally, a battery needs to be replaced in four or five years, and it costs tens of thousands of yuan, which is more expensive than gasoline."

  "With home charging piles, the cost of pure electric vehicles is only one-tenth of that of oil vehicles. If there are no home charging piles, the electricity cost of commercial piles is close to 2 yuan/kWh, and the cost of using a car will be four times higher."

  Even if it is a free gift, there are still a large number of car owners who have not installed home charging piles.

  On December 20 last year, Shen Hui publicly stated: "Weimar has delivered more than 40,000 vehicles, but nearly 20,000 of the charging piles distributed with the vehicles could not be delivered." According to data from the Charging Alliance, household charging piles are equipped with The construction rate is 60%-70%.

  However, the public charging piles are still unable to meet the charging demand. At present, the ratio of public charging piles to new energy vehicles is 1:6.8.

  Behind the hot searches such as "new energy car owners get up at 4:00 in the morning to grab the charging pile" is the mileage anxiety of consumers about the shortened battery life of electric vehicles in winter and the dissatisfaction of battery charging.

  By the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 7.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 59.25%.

Among them, the number of pure electric vehicles was 6.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 151.61%.

  Due to the improvement of key technical indicators and performance of products, and the reduction of cost, pure electric vehicles (BEVs) have maintained a dominant position in the new energy market.

  According to the data from the Passenger Federation, from January to February this year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in my country reached 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 131.8%, and the penetration rate reached 14.4%.

The sales of pure electric vehicles accounted for 76.92% of the sales of new energy vehicles.

  However, recently, due to factors such as rising raw material costs, chip shortages, and declining subsidies, new energy vehicles have set off a wave of price hikes.

According to incomplete statistics from the Red Star Capital Bureau, at least 16 new energy vehicle companies have announced price adjustments since the end of last year, covering the mainstream car purchase range below 100,000 yuan to more than 300,000 yuan, most of which are pure electric vehicles.

  Models below 100,000 yuan have a higher rate of increase, with an average price increase of about 4,800 yuan.

Euler Black Cat, White Cat, Changan Benben National Edition low-profile pure electric cars with high cost performance, simply suspend orders.

  Difficulty in delivery is also one of the reasons why consumers hesitate.

BYD, GAC Aian, Geely Geometry and other popular brands have a pick-up period of more than 3 months, Xiaopeng P5 has a pick-up period of more than 4 months, and Tesla Model Y and Model 3 models have a pick-up period of up to 12 months. -16 weeks.

  Plug-in model

  Eclectic choice, is growing rapidly

  Since the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles is still widespread, plug-in hybrid models are considered to be a shortcut to realize the transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.

  The pure electric battery life of this model is sufficient for daily commuting, and it can also be used for long-distance travel when refueling.

  The Ideal ONE, which adopts extended-range electric technology, has delivered 144,770 units since its launch.

With this model, Li Auto is firmly in the top three of the new car-making forces.

The 2021Q4 financial report released a few days ago shows that the ideal quarterly revenue exceeded 10 billion for the first time.

  BYD has occupied nearly half of the hybrid market in 2021, and its DM-i hybrid series has sold a total of 272,000 new vehicles.

In January 2022, BYD's DM-i model sales reached 46,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 760.6%; in February DM-i models sold 44,300 units.

  The success of Li Auto and BYD has led many car companies to make efforts in the plug-in hybrid model market.

Geely has launched the Thor hybrid, Changan has the IDD hybrid, Great Wall has the Lemon DHT hybrid, and Chery has the Kunpeng DHT hybrid.

  In 2021, the cumulative sales of plug-in hybrid models will reach 545,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 171.1%, making it the segment with the highest growth rate.

In January this year, a total of 85,000 plug-in hybrid models were sold, a month-on-month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year increase of 198.3%.

The pure electric passenger car fell by 15% month-on-month and increased by nearly 60% year-on-year.

  In February, retail sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 66,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 367.2%.

BYD even monopolized two-thirds of its sales, surpassed SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM and won the runner-up in monthly sales, becoming the champion of the top three independent brands for the first time.

  Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, said, "To a certain extent, the shrinking of the mini-car market and the expansion of the plug-in hybrid model market are both positive manifestations of the adjustment of the product structure of new energy vehicles." In 2021, the market share of plug-in hybrid models in my country will be It is only 18%. This year, the Passenger Federation will judge that the proportion of this market will increase to 25%.

  According to the analysis of the Passenger Federation, based on the good performance in 2021, the Passenger Federation will adjust the sales target of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 from 4.8 million units to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 25%.

  Liu Hao, an automotive industry analyst, told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the current ownership of new energy vehicles only accounts for 2.6% of the total number of vehicles.

The replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles is the general trend, but it cannot be achieved overnight in a short period of time.

It is estimated that the number of fuel vehicles in China will peak in 2025, reaching 290 million.

  He pointed out that at present, the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles still needs to be improved, the core three-electric system also needs to be broken through, and the used car market and battery recycling system also need to be improved.

  The "2021 Second-hand Car Market Consumer Demand Insight Report" released a few days ago pointed out that the 3-year value preservation rate of mainstream traditional energy second-hand cars is still maintained at 50% to 70%.

Compared with used fuel vehicles, the overall 1-year value preservation rate of new energy used vehicles differs by 6.9%, and the 3-year difference is 5.3%.

  Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo