Chinanews Finance, March 9 (Ge Cheng) Affected by the situation in Ukraine, international oil prices have soared in the continuous violent turbulence, reaching new highs.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on February 24, international oil prices have risen by more than 35%.
Some even believe that oil prices will likely rise to $200 or $300 a barrel.
When will this wave of crude oil prices stop?
What is the impact on the country?
On February 24, local time, Kyiv, Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region on the 24th, Kyiv people drove out of the city.
Nearly 14-year high, oil prices hit the $140 mark
On March 7, Brent crude oil futures in London once exceeded $135 a barrel, hitting the $140 mark, the highest level since July 2008.
In intraday trading on March 9, Brent oil reached $130.21 a barrel, an increase of 1.07% from the previous day's close.
According to Xinhua News Agency, data released by the American Automobile Association on March 6 showed that the average gasoline price in the United States rose to $4.01 per gallon that day, the highest level since July 2008.
That's up 45% from $2.76 a gallon a year ago.
In Europe, some petrol stations also sell petrol and diesel for more than 2 euros per litre.
For a normal car, it costs 100 euros to fill up a tank of gas, and buying a bike with a tank of gas will gradually become the norm.
OPEC says it can't control the rise in oil prices! To go up to $300 a barrel?
According to Lin Caiyi, deputy director of the China Chief Economist Forum Research Institute, the current market crude oil inventories are low, and the gap between supply and demand drives crude oil prices to strengthen.
Under the condition that the demand outlook is relatively stable, the probability of high oil price fluctuations in the future is relatively high.
Regarding the soaring oil prices, OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo warned on the 7th that OPEC cannot control the rise in global oil prices, and geopolitics is the determinant.
In response to the current situation, Bank of America analysts believe that if most of Russia's oil exports are disrupted, there may be a gap of 5 million barrels or more, and oil prices will likely rise to $200 a barrel.
"Rejection of Russian oil will have disastrous consequences for the global market." Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned in a televised speech on March 7, "The surge in (oil) prices will be unpredictable and will at least to $300 a barrel.”
U.S. bans imports of Russian oil, Europe is tangled
On March 8, local time, U.S. President Biden announced an energy ban against Russia, which would prohibit the U.S. from importing oil and liquefied natural gas from Russia.
Data map: US President Biden.
Earlier, Reuters reported that the U.S. government was continuing to seek support from countries such as France, Germany and the U.K. to ban Russian energy imports.
But a senior U.S. official said that "if it is announced, it is likely that only the United States will act alone."
German Chancellor Scholz said on the 7th that in view of the importance of Russia's energy supply to Germany's national economy and people's livelihood, Germany still has no intention of banning imports.
That's why Europe has deliberately avoided sanctions on Russia's energy supplies, Scholz explained, and has gone all out to take other measures.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said economic sanctions must go a step further by expelling every Russian bank from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT) payments system.
But his stance on energy is contradictory: "These measures will not be enough unless Europe starts to move away from Russian oil and gas."
On March 6, local time, fuel prices at a gas station in Toronto, Canada, reached a new high.
Oil prices across Canada have continued to rise recently and have broken records.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Canada is facing obvious inflationary pressure.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Yu Ruidong
Will oil prices continue to soar, fueling global inflation?
European countries do not keep pace with the United States in energy sanctions against Russia. An important reason is that they cannot get rid of their dependence on Russian energy and are worried about soaring inflation.
However, Zhou Dadi, executive vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association and former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told Zhongxin Finance that the current global inflation is not caused by tensions in some regions.
Global inflation has actually been around since last year, only as tensions intensified.
“Not only energy prices are rising now, but all raw materials, commodities, and food are rising. Although there is still some uncertainty about the future supply of oil, rising prices at this stage are also an important component of global inflation. part." Zhou Da said.
"In the past seven years, the correlation between oil prices and CPI year-on-year changes has been as high as 80%." Lin Caiyi said that the continued rise in oil prices will inevitably push up global inflation to a certain extent.
Moreover, this price increase due to supply and demand cannot be solved directly through monetary policy.
How will soaring oil prices affect China?
"The recent escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had an impact on the global energy market, and the international crude oil and natural gas prices have further risen. Due to the high proportion of China's crude oil and natural gas outsourcing, it will be affected, and the import cost will objectively rise. But overall The impact is controllable." Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently.
In his view, China is a big energy consumer and a big energy producer on the one hand, so the overall energy supply is guaranteed.
The sources of China's crude oil and natural gas imports have been diversified, and long-term contracts account for a high proportion. As long as all parties comply with the contracts, imports can remain generally stable.
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