Securities Times reporter Zhao Liyun Huang Xiang
In an interview with a reporter from Securities Times e Company, analysts mostly believed that the current geopolitical conflict still exists, and there is still a short-term driving force for international energy prices to push up prices.
"Brent crude oil has hit US$130/barrel, close to the historical high of US$148/barrel in 2008. However, this round of gains was not driven by the recovery of the global economy, but mainly caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Market price fluctuations are still It depends on the development of the war. At present, the third round of negotiations is fruitless, and the energy price situation will change rapidly." Gao Shang, director of futures at Haitong Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times · e company.
Gao Shang said that the US ban on energy imports from Russia will also lead to some other Western countries to follow.
At present, Russia's oil gap of 7 million barrels per day is difficult to make up in the short term.
Even if the United States and EIA put 60 million barrels of strategic oil reserves into the market in the early stage, it is a drop in the bucket for the global market demand of 100 million barrels per day.
Under the current situation, crude oil prices may remain high and fluctuated in the short term.
However, in the medium and long term, the war between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to become a protracted war, so it is unlikely that crude oil prices will continue to remain high.
"The soaring crude oil price will directly affect the transportation industry, causing indirect cost impact on the logistics, textile, chemical and other industries, thereby further shifting cost pressure downstream and suppressing consumption. Therefore, high oil prices will also trigger US shale oil, including OPEC supply. At the same time, it will also speed up the pace of Fed rate hikes to curb the continuation of inflation. For my country, the short-term rise in energy prices will bring a great impact, but the duration depends on the development of the war and the continuation of high energy prices. It is expected that crude oil, etc. Unusually high commodity prices will not last too long," he said.
Jinlianchuang analyst Xi Jiarui said that the intraday price of Brent crude oil futures was close to $140 a barrel on March 7, which was close to the highest price before the 2008 financial crisis.
However, inflation in 2008 led to the global economic crisis, and the lessons of the rapid and tragic fall in international oil prices after a short-term "super boom" are vivid in my mind.
The current surge in oil prices is triggered by geopolitics, and geopolitics are very resilient.
If Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement, the West is likely to partially lift sanctions on Russia, and the world will also need to rely on Russian energy. If this happens, and the Iranian nuclear issue is lifted, international oil prices may fall to around $70 a barrel.
However, if the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not relieved, the price of crude oil will soon refresh the historical high price in 2008 and launch a shock to the position of 150 US dollars per barrel.
Xu Yang, chief economist of Hong Kong Zhongrui Fund, also believes that although the United States and Europe have declared that Russia is prohibited from importing energy, in fact, it is difficult to fill the gap in the import of crude oil and other energy commodities from Russia in these countries.
The reality is that companies in the US and Europe are still importing Russian oil.
If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine further escalates, it does not rule out the possibility that Russia will completely cut off the supply of goods to Europe and the United States and other regions, so the market is now more uncertain.
He believes that the current market is mainly speculative and speculative with trading funds, which makes futures prices go up from the fundamentals.
However, in the future, these commodities that have risen from the fundamentals will return to a reasonable range one by one.
The current rise in bulk commodities has exacerbated global economic inflation expectations, causing domestic commodity prices to soar, especially in the futures market, which will affect the middle and lower reaches of various industries, increase production and operation costs, exacerbate inflation, and delay economic development.Keywords: