(Observation of the Two Sessions) How can China's prudent monetary policy "intensify its implementation"?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 10 (Reporter Xia Bin) In this year's government work report, steady growth is the biggest key word.

From the perspective of monetary policy, it is also specially proposed to "intensify the implementation of prudent monetary policy".

　　How to intensify the implementation has become a hot issue discussed by all parties.

Analysts pointed out that China's monetary policy still has ample space, and it can exert force from at least four aspects.

　　First, the total amount maintains a steady growth and contributes "ammunition" to the incremental funds supporting economic development.

　　Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, pointed out that steady growth will generate a larger demand for incremental funds.

In 2022, monetary policy will likely continue to increase cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments, and flexibly use open market operations, MLF (Medium-Term Lending Facility) and other policy tools to maintain reasonably sufficient market liquidity, which will better meet the needs of the real economy. financing needs.

　　According to Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, at present, due to the weak recovery on the demand side and the still negative output gap, CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation should continue to remain at a low level, which is the basis for monetary policy. Sufficient space is reserved.

It is expected that the growth rate of social financing scale should pick up moderately this year.

More importantly, credit resources are expected to flow to areas with higher productivity for more efficient distribution.

　　Second, the structure is further optimized, so that the released funds can be used to their maximum value efficiently and accurately.

　　"Structurally, it is required to guide more funds to flow to key areas and weak links, and to expand the coverage of inclusive finance," said CITIC Securities' chief economist.

　　Lian Ping said that it is expected that monetary policy will use structural tools such as supporting agriculture, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, re-loan and re-discount, inclusive small and micro loan support tools, carbon emission reduction support tools, etc., to give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy volume and structure. Make precise efforts to increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises, technological innovation, and green development, and at the same time guide financial institutions to increase credit issuance to areas with slow credit growth, so as to enhance the development capabilities of underdeveloped areas.

　　Third, continue to increase liquidity supply to create favorable conditions for financial institutions to enhance credit.

　　In 2021, the People's Bank of China will cut the RRR twice across the board by 0.5 percentage points each, releasing a total of 2.2 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) in long-term funds.

The prudent monetary policy needs to be implemented more vigorously. Is it possible to continue to cut the reserve ratio this year?

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that the current average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%, and there is still room and necessity for RRR cuts. The release of long-term liquidity through RRR cuts will help encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply and guide them to reduce Real economy financing costs.

　　In addition, timely reduction of policy interest rates can not only directly reduce the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR), but also help to guide the decline of currency and bond market interest rates, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of market players.

　　In Mingming's view, whether it is from the perspective of easing credit, reducing costs, and dredging the monetary policy transmission mechanism, or from the perspective of supplementing the funding gap and providing medium and long-term incremental funds, RRR cuts are "optional".

　　Fourth, research and innovate policy tools, so that market players can personally experience the improvement in financing convenience.

　　As far as policy tools are concerned, the toolbox of the People's Bank of China has been continuously "expanded" in recent years, including two new structural monetary policy tools, one is a carbon emission reduction support tool, and the other is a special re-lending to support the clean and efficient use of coal. .

　　Up to now, the central bank has supported financial institutions to issue loans of 230.8 billion yuan and 13.4 billion yuan respectively through the above two tools, of which carbon emission reduction loans drive annual carbon emission reductions of 47.86 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

　　As a result, the market also has expectations for the "new" monetary policy this year.

Wen Bin believes that on the current basis, more forms of monetary policy tool innovations are expected to be introduced and implemented in the future when the economy is under great downward pressure and market players are in urgent demand.

(over)