China-Singapore Jingwei, March 9th (Fu Jianqing) On the morning of the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2022.
The average forecast of a number of institutions shows that the CPI in February rose by 0.85% year-on-year.
Wind data shows that as of March 3, 12 institutions predicted an average year-on-year CPI increase of 0.85% in February, the largest forecast was 1.1% given by Guosen Securities and Galaxy Securities, and the smallest was 0.5% given by China Merchants Securities.
It is worth noting that according to previous data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in January 2022 rose by 0.9% year-on-year, and the increase has narrowed for two consecutive months.
If calculated according to the average value predicted by the agency, the year-on-year increase of CPI will continue to narrow, or meet the "three consecutive declines".
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Sino-Singapore Jingwei Fu Jianqing
For the narrowing of the CPI increase, many institutions have expressed that it is related to the decline in pig prices.
According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, the national wholesale price of white striped pigs was reported at 21.18 yuan/kg on January 28 and 18.46 yuan/kg on February 25.
In one month, the price fell by more than 12%.
Source: Ministry of Commerce website
Zheshang Securities pointed out that due to the Spring Festival, the demand for life, clothing, food, transportation, entertainment, etc. has risen, prices have risen, and domestic refined oil prices have risen. drag.
In addition, the local epidemic situation in Suzhou, Guangdong, Guizhou, and other regions was severe in February. Under the spread of the epidemic, tourist attractions in many regions were temporarily closed, and offline intensive consumption places were closed. The offline consumption was affected to a certain extent, which is not conducive to the recovery of the core CPI.
Huatai Securities believes that pork prices fell significantly in February, with average wholesale prices down 9.3%, but vegetable and fruit prices fell.
rise.
Food CPI is expected to drop slightly month-on-month, while non-food CPI will be affected by weaker consumption and rising oil prices.
Looking ahead, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and dean of the research institute, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that it is expected that the CPI will gradually pick up year-on-year, but the pressure in the first half of the year is relatively small and stabilized at around 1.5%.
In the second half of the year, there may be a risk of high inflation, focusing on the fluctuation of pork prices and international oil prices, and beware of lard resonance pushing up inflation.
"As the leading indicator, the number of fertile sows on the shelf gradually declines year-on-year, the number of live pigs will also peak and decline year-on-year. It is expected that the supply of live pigs will peak in this round of pig cycle in the third quarter, which will also correspond to the gradual decline in pig prices after bottoming out. Recovery." Zhang Aoping, Dean of the Incremental Research Institute, said that in the long run, with the force of cross-cycle and counter-cycle macro-control policies and the transmission of the effect of upstream raw material price increases, the CPI data will gradually recover, but the momentum of recovery will be relatively mild.
The macro team of CITIC Securities mentioned the impact of purchase and storage, "From February 21 to 25, the national average pig-grain price ratio was 4.98:1. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments started the central frozen pork reserve purchase and storage work. It is expected that pork The room for further price decline is relatively limited, so the CPI is expected to rebound in the second quarter." (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)