Focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market

  ——Experts and scholars interpretation plan report

  Our reporter Gu Yang Xiong Li

  Entrusted by the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission submitted to the Fifth Session of the Thirteenth National People's Congress on March 5 to review the "Report on the Implementation of the National Economic and Social Development Plan in 2021 and the Draft National Economic and Social Development Plan in 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report". "Scheduled Report").

What are the characteristics of this year's plan report, and how to understand and grasp the mission requirements put forward by the report?

  Many experts and scholars said that the plan report has a clear and clear goal orientation, a degree of policy grasp and coordination, and bottom-line thinking throughout. It is not only closely connected with the government work report, but also in the same vein, and highlights the characteristics of the year, reflecting the effective market and promising government. A good combination has provided strong support for the implementation of the relevant goals and tasks of the government work report.

  Last year's main goals and tasks were well accomplished

  "Generally speaking, the expected targets for economic growth, employment, consumer prices, and balance of payments in 2021 have been well achieved. The indicators in the fields of technological innovation, resource conservation, environmental protection, and social security have continued to improve, and food and energy production has grown steadily. The main goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year have been well completed." The plan report made such an evaluation of the implementation of the 2021 national economic and social development plan.

  According to Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, in the past year, my country has innovated and improved macro-control, and its economic fundamentals have been further consolidated. With an optimized combination of growth and lower inflation, economic and social development has maintained a good momentum.

  While affirming the achievements of economic and social development throughout the year, the plan report also objectively analyzes the problems and challenges faced by the current development, pointing out that aggregate demand is shrinking, structural shortages, rising costs and prices, risks in the economic and financial fields have risen, and market expectations are not high. Waiting for difficulties, emphasizing that it is necessary to face difficulties and strengthen confidence.

  At the "Minister's Channel" of the two sessions this year, He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that although the difficulties and challenges faced by my country's economic operation have increased significantly, the good momentum of sustained economic recovery and development has not changed, and the conditions of production factors that support high-quality development have not changed. The fundamentals of strong economic resilience and long-term improvement have not changed, and my country's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities.

  Put stable growth in a more prominent position

  Gross domestic product increased by about 5.5%; more than 11 million new urban jobs were created, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate was controlled within 5.5% throughout the year; consumer prices rose by about 3%; residents' income growth was basically synchronized with economic growth... This year, the government The work report clarifies the main expected goals of economic and social development, and requires that efforts should be made to stabilize the macroeconomic market and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.

In this regard, the plan report proposes that this year's work should adhere to the principle of stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, and put stable growth in a more prominent position.

  "The growth target of 5.5% is not only in line with the continuous technical requirements, but also in necessity and feasibility." Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that a reasonable level of economic growth is to create new jobs and improve people's livelihood in the short term. The guarantee of development goals such as the balance of payments and the balance of payments is also a prerequisite for achieving the goal of common prosperity in the medium and long term, and it is also the need to prevent and resolve potential risks.

  To stabilize the macroeconomic market, policies have space and means.

Both the Central Economic Work Conference and the government work report stated that macro policies should be stable and effective, micro policies should continue to stimulate the vitality of market players, structural policies should focus on smoothing the national economic cycle, science and technology policies should be solidly implemented, reform and opening up policies should activate development momentum, and regional Policies should enhance the balance and coordination of development, and social policies should stick to the bottom line of people's livelihood. The plan report has made clear requirements for this.

  To stabilize the macroeconomic market, measures must be more precise and powerful.

The plan report proposes to give full play to the enthusiasm of both the central and local governments, put policy efforts at the forefront, use reserve policy tools in a timely manner, grasp the timeliness of policies, strengthen economic monitoring, early warning and policy pre-research reserves, and prevent emerging trends and problems early. Discovery and early disposal, strengthen directional control, precise control, and camera control on the basis of interval control, enhance forward-looking, targeted, and effective, formulate risk prevention plans, improve policy implementation efficiency, and introduce more to boost effective demand and strengthen A real trick to guarantee supply and stabilize market expectations.

  Coordinate and stabilize growth, adjust structure, and promote reform

  The plan report proposes that in 2022, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focus on key points, grasp the key points, and focus on ten aspects of work.

  Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that it is necessary to make overall plans to stabilize growth, adjust the structure, and push forward reforms. And cultivate new advantages in international cooperation and competition, deeply implement the innovation-driven development strategy, and consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy.

  Wen Bin believes that to boost consumption, first, it is necessary to increase residents' income through multiple channels, and to boost consumption ability and willingness to consume from the source.

The second is to cultivate consumption growth points.

Support consumption in key areas such as new energy vehicles, green and smart home appliances to the countryside, and trade-in.

The third is to develop new forms of consumption and new models.

Promote the deep integration of online and offline consumption and promote consumption upgrade.

  Regarding the orderly promotion of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that there is no specific target for energy consumption intensity this year, but requires "overall assessment during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period", and emphasizes "maintaining Appropriate flexibility, new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control.” “Retaining appropriate flexibility” is to prevent behaviors such as “movement-style carbon reduction” that are not conducive to stable economic growth. "Renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control" is a consideration to support the development of new energy, taking into account the requirements of stable growth and the needs of high-quality development.

  The plan report proposes to promote the smooth circulation of the industrial chain and supply chain, and consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy.

Liu Xiangdong said, "Technological innovation should be taken as the main direction of modernization and upgrading of the industrial chain, to solve the problems of advanced, intelligent and complete industrial chain, to improve the resilience and quality of the supply system, and to accelerate the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy. , consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy.”