Zhongxin Finance, March 10 (Ge Cheng) Recently, the "demon nickel" market has shrouded the world.

On March 8, the price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by more than 100% during the session, and rose by 250% in two trading days, setting a new record high.

At the same time, Shanghai nickel futures also rose by the limit for three consecutive trading days, with increases of 12%, 15%, and 17% from March 7 to March 9.

Since March 7, Shanghai nickel futures have risen by the daily limit for three consecutive trading days.

  Under the dual role of domestic and international markets, the price of electrolytic nickel, an important material for new energy vehicle batteries, has also skyrocketed.

Following the "core shortage" and "lithium shortage", the "demon nickel" strikes, and the price of new energy vehicles can only continue to rise?

"Demon Nickel" triggers suspension and changes trading rules

  On March 8, local time, the London Metal Exchange (LME) announced the suspension of nickel trading when the price of nickel rose above $100,000.

The LME has also decided to delay delivery of all spot nickel contracts scheduled for delivery on March 9, 2022.

  In the latest announcement issued by the London Metal Exchange (LME), the LME said it did not expect to resume trading in nickel futures before March 11 and expected to set a price limit of around 10% for all direct nickel contracts.

  London Metal Exchange Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Matthew Chamberlain said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on March 9, local time, that it was "the right decision" to suspend and cancel some nickel trading, and that it is the responsibility of the exchange to stabilize the market.

  On the evening of the 9th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also issued a notice on suspending the trading of some nickel futures contracts for one day.

Since the evening trading of March 9th, NI2204, NI2205, NI2206, NI2207, NI2209, NI2212, NI2301 contracts will be suspended for one day.

Why is "nickel" "demon"?

  After the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the London Metal Exchange (LME) updated its announcement on March 2, announcing a ban on Russian nickel delivery, triggering a rise in nickel futures prices.

  According to data from the US Geological Survey, in 2021, Russia's nickel mine production will account for about 9% of the world's total production, ranking third.

  The research report of CICC pointed out that the nickel market is fragmented and the short-term nickel price remains strong, which is due to the combination of factors such as the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, low inventory, cost support, and transaction squeeze.

  In the medium and long term, the

nickel market depends on the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the price transmission and downstream acceptance of the industrial chain

.

In an extreme case, if all the nickel supply and production in Russia disappears in the future, the balance of supply and demand in the global nickel industry will change from surplus to shortage from 2022.

The picture shows the new energy vehicle exhibition hall of the 2021 Chengdu International Auto Show.

Photo by Zhang Lang

"Demon nickel" hurts new energy vehicles

  The rise in nickel prices this time has added new injuries to new energy vehicles after facing the unfavorable situation of "core shortage" and "lithium boundless".

  According to TrendForce, due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles, nickel prices have been on a moderate rise since last year.

In 2021, the spot market price of electrolytic nickel in China has reached 130,000-150,000 yuan per ton, and in early 2022, it has risen to 160,000-170,000 yuan per ton.

  The recent market situation has caused the price of electrolytic nickel to soar.

On March 9, Jinchuan Group's electrolytic nickel (big plate) ex-factory quotation was 292,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 51,400 yuan from the previous trading day

.

  Nickel is an upstream key raw material for the manufacture of electric vehicle power batteries, and is mainly used in the manufacture of ternary cathode materials in power batteries.

  The rapid development of new energy vehicles will increase the demand for upstream raw material nickel for power batteries.

TrendForce said that at present, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is accelerating.

As the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, the global nickel supply shortage will further push up nickel prices and increase the cost pressure of terminals such as the electric vehicle industry.

How much will the price of new energy vehicles rise?

  According to the research report of CICC, the price of nickel rose from 20,000 US dollars / ton to 50,000 US dollars / ton, and

the 8-series new energy vehicles with 60KWH of bicycle electricity (new energy vehicles with 60KWH of bicycle electricity using 811-type ternary battery) nickel raw materials The cost increased by about 10,000 yuan

.

  Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, believes that the surge in nickel prices has little impact on domestic car sales.

He said that the surge in nickel prices is more of a hype, with limited long-term impact.

But at this stage, car companies have to bear certain pressure in terms of battery costs.

  Since 2022, new energy vehicles have experienced a round of price increases. BYD, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Volkswagen, Weimar and other car companies have all raised the prices of new energy vehicles.

The range varies from several thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.

Dong Yudong, CEO of ORA brand, said bluntly in response to the suspension of orders for its black cat and white cat models: "After the sharp rise in raw materials in 2022, some models have brought huge losses to the company, and the loss of a single black cat exceeds 10,000 yuan. "

  Although prices have risen, at present, sales of new energy vehicles have not been affected.

According to data from the Passenger Federation, in February, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased from 8.1% in the same period last year to 21.8%, and the total retail sales reached 272,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%.

  Mr. Li, a consumer who is choosing a car, revealed to Zhongxin Finance that among the several models he has seen, there is generally a problem of price increases, but the extent is limited.

On the question of which car to choose, Mr. Li said, "It's really not easy to get the number. Anyway, the price has risen, and the rate is similar."

In the face of "demon nickel", what should the auto industry do?

  In order to cope with the unfavorable situation such as rising raw materials, some domestic power battery companies have formulated countermeasures.

The relevant person in charge of Honeycomb Energy said in an interview with Zhongxin Finance that at present, the rise of battery materials is a major trend, and the relevant supply chain has been deployed in advance and prepared.

  In addition, strengthening the research and development of related technologies and getting rid of the dependence on resources such as nickel, lithium and cobalt can also share the pressure of the continuous rise of power battery raw materials.

  Kong Falong, a representative of the National People's Congress, suggested that new types of power batteries such as sodium-ion batteries and fuel cells should be developed and promoted with rich elements such as "sodium" and "hydrogen" as the main materials to replace lithium, nickel, cobalt and other materials batteries.

He said that at present, the important raw materials for domestic manufacturing of power batteries are heavily dependent on imports, and the external dependence of lithium, nickel and cobalt resources exceeds 70%, 80% and 90% respectively.

  In July 2021, CATL, a leading domestic power battery company, released sodium-ion batteries.

Although it is lower than traditional lithium batteries in terms of energy density, it can be regarded as a "first step" in solving the problem that my country's lithium, nickel and cobalt resources rely on imports and are controlled by others.

(over)