The war in Ukraine has raised concerns about German and European energy supplies: will Russia stop supplying some of its gas, oil and coal in the near future – or should the West stop paying on its own?

America has gone ahead and banned Russian oil.

Germany would be severely affected in the event of a delivery stop.

Supply shortages, especially in industrial companies, and higher energy prices can then be expected.

The price of oil continued to rise by around 6 percent on Tuesday.

Jan Hauser

Editor in Business.

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The economists Rüdiger Bachmann, David Baqaee, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn, Andreas Loeschel, Benjamin Moll, Andreas Peichl, Karen Pittel and Moritz Schularick have now examined the economic consequences for Germany.

Their conclusion: they consider the impact to be likely to be substantial but manageable.

Leopoldina scientists see it in a similar way in a new statement: A short-term stop in the supply of Russian gas would be “manageable” for the German economy.

Bottlenecks could arise in the coming winter, but these should be limited.

Help for poor households

In general, stopping oil and coal deliveries is considered easier for Germany to cope with than stopping Russian natural gas deliveries.

The world market is more spread out here and other countries could step in more easily.

For the gas supply, attempts should first be made to replace as much as possible with other energy sources and also to receive more supplies from other countries such as Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan.

The local gas storage tanks should be filled up in the summer in order to better cover the peaks in heating demand in the winter.

Gas could be completely dispensed with in power generation if, for example, coal-fired power plants replaced gas-fired power plants.

In their study “What if…?

The Economic Effects of a Russian Energy Import Stop on Germany”.

As a result of an import ban, households, industry and services would have to accept a drop in gas supply of 30 percent.

That would be around 8 percent of the total German energy consumption.

In their macroeconomic model calculations, a supply freeze on Russian energy imports reduces gross domestic product by 0.5 percent to around 3 percent.

Losses per citizen range from 80 to 1000 euros a year depending on the scenario, which mainly depends on how Russian natural gas can be replaced.

Low-income households would be more affected.

Therefore, the authors cite targeted transfers to low-income households as a cost-effective way to offset the uneven impact of rising energy prices along the income distribution.

The nine economists recommend quick incentives to save and replace fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

To this end, the government should raise the prices for fossil fuels and above all for natural gas over a longer period of time so that households and industry can adapt more quickly.