Our reporter Jiao Yue Shi Lu
Following the super cycle of container shipping and dry bulk shipping, there are obvious signs of recovery in the oil shipping market.
On March 4, freight rates for Baltic tankers on European routes rose by $30,000 to $241,000 a day, the highest since at least 2008.
Communication data dateyes shows that as of March 4, the Baltic Sea Transport Index (crude oil) BDTI was 1474 points, an increase of 103.3% from 725 points on February 23 this year, and the last time BDTI exceeded 1000 points occurred in March 2020.
An Guangyong, an expert from the Credit Management Committee of the All-China Mergers & Acquisitions Association, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the rise in global oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts led to a rise in freight rates.
Crude oil shipping index soars
Guotai Junan Securities predicted the recovery of oil transportation prices years ago.
Guotai Junan said in a research report that the sharp drop in oil prices from March to April 2020 stimulated a short-lived frenzy in the global oil storage and oil transportation markets, and then entered a long supply and demand bottom.
The destocking of crude oil is first and basically completed. The floating warehouse has recovered to before the epidemic, and the supply flexibility is relatively limited. The environmental protection policy is expected to accelerate the clearing of the transportation capacity, and the oil transportation market will gradually recover in the next two years.
However, due to the sudden geopolitical influence, the recovery of oil transportation came ahead of schedule.
As of March 4, freight rates for Baltic tankers on European routes have risen by $30,000/day.
On February 23, the Guotai Junan Transportation Industry Research Report stated that the VLCC Middle East-China TCE fell below US$12,000/day, which continued to be sluggish.
Compared with European routes, the oil transportation price of Middle East routes is still at a lower position, and the regional differentiation is larger.
"Russia accounts for 25% of global oil and gas exports, while 40% of the EU's natural gas and 33% of its oil come from Russia. Although the international market has not imposed sanctions on Russia's energy trade for the time being, many European and American energy companies have begun to stop importing from Russia. Energy, carry out 'self-cut', self-cut and gamma (surge) are the two current keywords in the crude oil market. First, actively stop the purchase of Russian crude oil, the absence of large suppliers has caused tension in energy trade. Second, there is no ship's original intention Going to the Black Sea, it is difficult for crude oil buyers to find shipping companies willing to send ships to Russian ports, so freight rates are soaring." Liang Yukun, an analyst at the Asset Management Department of the British Great Yangtze River Delta Financial Center of State Grid, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Regarding the surge in oil shipping prices on European routes, China Merchants Securities said in a research report that on the one hand, Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy. Currently, about 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil flows westward through the pipeline network to the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. export terminals, and directly into refineries in central and eastern Europe.
If the regional situation deteriorates and Western countries impose sanctions on Russia, European refineries will turn to the Middle East to import crude oil, and Russia will also look for alternative customers. At that time, the transportation distance of crude oil will be extended, and the overall crude oil transportation price will increase significantly.
On the other hand, regional conflicts have led to concerns about the stability of the supply chain between importers and exporters, and the freight rates of related routes may increase significantly in the short term.
A-share oil transportation target "appears to talk about the market"
In the eyes of industry insiders, the rise in oil transportation prices brought about by soaring oil prices is hard to say in the short term.
The two giants in the domestic oil transportation sector are China Merchants Steamship and COSCO SHIPPING Energy, while other companies such as China Merchants South Oil have low market shares.
In 2021, COSCO SHIPPING Energy and China Merchants Group will have a combined capacity share of more than 40% in the domestic oil product shipping market. Together with Beihai Shipping and Huahai Oil, both of which COSCO Group holds shares and shares, the capacity share will reach 43.8%.
In the domestic crude oil shipping market, COSCO SHIPPING Energy and Beihai Shipping, a stake in the company, have a combined capacity share of 92%.
On March 3, China Merchants Shipping said in the Shanghai Stock Exchange E Interactive Q&A: "The company's tanker fleet currently owns and operates 52 VLCC tankers (operating globally) and 5 aframax tankers (mainly operating in the Atlantic market). It is the VLCC Middle East Eastbound, West Africa Far East and US Gulf/North Sea Far East routes. As of the evening of March 2, the freight index of the Middle East Eastbound VLCC route is WS55/56, which has risen sharply compared with the recent low of WS31.5, mainly affected by Russia. The situation in Ukraine is affected.”
COSCO SHIPPING Energy previously replied to investors that among the company's VLCC routes, the Middle East to Far East routes have a relatively high proportion, and they are flexibly positioned according to different regional market conditions. Other small and medium-sized oil tankers engaged in foreign trade operations mainly operate in the Asia-Pacific region. .
Regarding the trend of oil transportation prices in the future, Yue Xin, chief analyst of the transportation industry of Guotai Junan Research Institute, told reporters that on the one hand, although the global crude oil terminal consumption has gradually recovered, destocking is the first, and the recovery of oil transportation demand is slow.
On the other hand, the rise in oil prices led to the disappearance of futures premium arbitrage, and the floating VLCC returned to the spot market, continuing to increase the supply of effective capacity.
According to our tracking, it is estimated that the capacity utilization rate of the oil transportation market in 2021Q3 has basically bottomed out.
Considering that the destocking of crude oil and the release of floating storage capacity are basically completed, it is expected that the future crude oil seaborne trade will usher in an accelerated recovery with the recovery of terminal consumption, and the oil tanker market will start to recover gradually in 2022-2023.
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"The price of oil transportation mainly depends on the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If the conflict ends earlier, the price of oil transportation will fall. But even if the conflict ends, if the financial sanctions continue, it will still affect oil prices. In other words, oil prices It may take some time for it to completely fall back to the original level." An Guangyong analyzed to reporters.
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, told reporters: "According to the current international situation, if the international community's sanctions against Russia caused by geopolitical conflicts cannot be terminated soon, or even further strengthened, the high oil transportation price will continue. Longer time." (Securities Daily)