Zhongxin Finance, March 9 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On March 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index (CPI) for February. Many institutions predict that the CPI increase in February may continue to fall.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

Year-on-year CPI growth may drop in February

  Driven by the expansion of pork prices, the year-on-year increase in the national consumer price (CPI) fell significantly in January.

  What will be the year-on-year increase in CPI in February?

According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 21 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in February was 0.84%.

If the above average forecasts are fulfilled, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in February will continue to drop slightly.

  "With the end of the Spring Festival, the price of edible agricultural products has dropped month-on-month since the beginning of February, and the year-on-year decline is basically the same. The price of pork continued its downward trend. The price was 20.53 yuan/kg, down nearly 7.4 percentage points from the previous month." said Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

  "The terminal retail prices of industrial consumer goods have generally risen, driving non-food prices to rise slowly." Liu Xuezhi pointed out that after calculation, the CPI inflation factor in February was -0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Taking the above factors into account, it is expected that the year-on-year CPI will increase between 0.5% and 0.7%, with a median value of 0.6%, and the increase will continue to narrow.

The pork section in a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.

Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan

CPI may stabilize and rebound in the future

  According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the bazaars and collection points in 500 counties across the country, in the first week of March, the national average pork price was 23.71 yuan/kg, down 1.9% from the previous week and down 50.0% year-on-year.

  "The current pork price is still in the stage of decline, and the CPI may fluctuate at a low level in the short term. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic, the terminal consumer demand will be repaired and improved, and it is expected to promote the stabilization and recovery of the CPI in the future." Liu Xuezhi said, but because the terminal consumer demand is difficult to strengthen significantly, the CPI The recovery after the short-term low volatility will be limited, and the overall price will be moderate.

  Recently, geopolitical conflicts have led to a rapid increase in risk aversion in the market, and the prices of commodities led by energy have risen again, which has also raised concerns about inflation.

  In this regard, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that under the control of domestic bulk commodity supply and price stabilization policies, my country's inflation level is expected to remain within a controllable range, but the future inflation trend is still uncertain.

(over)