After Russia's attack on Ukraine, the euro is coming under increasing pressure.
The common currency slipped below $1.09 on Monday and temporarily traded below CHF 1.00, the first time since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unpegged it from the euro in 2015.
Currency experts attribute the loss in value to the Ukraine war, from which Europe is likely to suffer more economically than the United States.
The senior foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, Ulrich Leuchtmann, drew attention to just how much: On February 23, the day before Russia attacked its neighboring country, the euro was still above 1.13 dollars.
Since then it's been downhill.
In the meantime, voices are even being raised that see the euro exchange rate at the $1.00 level in the medium term.
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The so-called parity has now already been achieved with the Swiss franc, which the SNB believes is currently being sought as a safe haven currency together with the dollar or the Japanese yen.
On Monday, the Swiss central bank emphasized its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market at any time.
If the Swiss franc becomes expensive, this can put a strain on the Swiss economy, because exports of its goods then become too expensive for neighboring euro countries and tourism suffers.
However, the Swiss economy has understood how to cope with a high franc exchange rate since the end of the euro exchange rate floor of CHF 1.20 in January 2015.
The fall in the euro is casting a shadow over the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting this Thursday.
Inflation concerns are heightened after euro area inflation hit a record 5.8 percent in February.
Along with soaring commodity prices, inflationary pressures may even have increased.
Since commodities such as oil are billed in American currency, they are also more expensive in euros due to the exchange rate effect.
The foreign exchange specialist at DZ Bank, Sandra Striffler, considers supportive market interventions by the ECB or the central banks of the Eurosystem to be a realistic option if the euro slide continues unabated.
Stephen Miller, investment strategist at Australian asset manager GSFM, does not rule out a test of dollar parity over a period of twelve to 18 months.
In his opinion, the consequences of the Ukraine war will weigh on the euro for a very long time.
According to the economists at the Swiss asset manager Bantleon, the consequences of the war in Ukraine pose very special challenges for the ECB.
"She's in a real bind," they wrote in their market outlook on Monday.
If the current energy price spike met an economy in a downturn, monetary authorities could easily see through the inflation hump.
Instead, the euro zone is at the beginning of a strong economic revival, with simultaneous material shortages and delivery bottlenecks.
"If the currency watchdogs let inflation run free and do not scale back their ultra-expansive monetary policy, there is a risk that the high inflation will lead to a wage-price spiral," warn the Bantleon analysts.
In view of the continuing rise in energy and food prices, they consider an inflation rate of more than 6 percent possible in the euro area as early as March.
In order to reduce the inflationary pressure somewhat without at the same time tightening monetary policy in the difficult economic situation, the focus is now also on foreign exchange market interventions by the ECB.
The last time this was in November 2000.
At the time, the central bank justified this step by saying that the euro exchange rates did not reflect the fundamental environment.
Commerzbank analyst Leuchtmann does not see this scenario as currently available.
“We are, we have to admit, here in Europe, on the edge of a war zone,” he wrote in his daily commentary.
It had become "marginally more likely" that the countries of the euro area would be drawn into the war.
For him, the euro crash is more of a rational and market-compliant reaction to what may be a small, but very drastic risk.
International investors currently have far less appetite for euro positions than they did recently.
The Polish zloty, the Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint also reflect how the fear of war weighs on the currencies.
These have come under even more pressure than the euro as a result of the conflict.
Within a week, the common European currency has gained 4.4 percent against the forint, 4.9 percent against the zloty and 2.5 percent against the koruna.
For Leuchtmann, the ECB is in a predicament here too.
Would it actually intervene against the euro collapse without bothering about Eastern Europe?
it would further accelerate the collapse of the three currencies.
"I'm not sure if that makes sense," says Leuchtmann.Keywords: