Oil prices rose exceptionally sharply at the beginning of the week.
Commerzbank speaks of a "price explosion".
Shortly after the start of trading, the price of the North Sea variety Brent jumped to $139 per barrel (159 liter barrel) and thus reached the highest level since July 2008. The price of gas oil, which is required for the production of diesel and heating oil, rose at its peak to $1,370 per ton, surpassing the previous record high from 2008.
Christian Siedenbiedel
Editor in Business.
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The prices for petrol and diesel at filling stations in Germany also reached records: In many cities, petrol and diesel now cost more than 2 euros per liter, according to ADAC the national average is “very slightly below” – at 1.984 euros per liter of diesel and 1.965 euros euros for petrol.
Since Friday evening, diesel has also been more expensive than petrol at most gas stations.
The price of heating oil has also reached a record.
100 liters cost 175.71 euros for the first time, as reported by the internet portal Heizoel24, to which 500 oil dealers report their prices.
At the turn of the year, the price was around 80 euros.
In view of the sharp rise in oil prices and the escalating war in Ukraine, the price slide on the stock exchanges continued.
The Dax lost 5 percent at the start of trading and temporarily fell to 12,450 points before a certain countermovement began.
Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine a week and a half ago, the price losses have already totaled almost 14 percent or almost 2000 points.
At 2,000 dollars, the price of the crisis currency gold temporarily reached its highest level since summer 2020 - calculated in euros, gold even reached a new all-time high of 1,851.15 euros.
So what does all this mean for investors?
Does it make sense to sell oil-related securities as quickly as possible because the price will not be as high as it is now?
Or, conversely, does it make sense to invest in oil right now because the war and the tense situation on the oil market will continue to drive up the price?
Oil price near 200 dollars?
There is no lack of forecasts that the oil price could also reach completely different heights.
Chris Wheaton, an analyst at investment bank Stifel, says a complete ban on Russian oil imports to the West could push the price further: "The price of freedom is $200 a barrel of crude oil - that's what it could cost if the world didn't have Russian oil wants to use more.” Many analysts, however, were surprised by the rise in oil prices – only recently a forecast of 120 dollars was considered a bleak worst-case scenario.
Investing in oil stocks is still attractive, says Christian Kahler, chief investment strategist at DZ Bank.
He wouldn't sell oil stocks now, on the contrary.
"If the spiral of escalation continues, we will also stick to our positioning," said Reinhard Pfingsten, chief investment strategist at Bethmann Bank.
You don't have to rely on short-term price gains, the dividends are often lucrative, says Kahler.
Oil stocks are therefore often held by retirees in the United States for retirement.
If you want to invest in oil companies, you will find numerous mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In this case, however, a selection of individual stocks could be interesting, says Kahler, because the quality of the various titles varies greatly.
For example, he finds Exxon-Mobil interesting, whose share price increased significantly on Monday, Royal Dutch Shell and Total.
It may be more difficult with stocks such as those of the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco, the Chinese Petro China or the Brazilian Petrobras.
Their courses have also been able to increase recently.
However, Kahler sees a possible "governance problem": Investors could fear that the governments in these countries would intervene in the business.
A criterion for the selection can also be whether you rely more on oil production or more on gas station networks.
He himself considers the latter to be more predictable.
While private investors can rarely invest in physical oil due to a lack of storage capacity and direct futures transactions are also a relatively risky affair, oil certificates are among the most common investment products.
Ulrich Stephan, Deutsche Bank's chief investment strategist for private and corporate customers, nevertheless considers oil stocks to be the more attractive investment at the moment, and European stocks in particular.
"I think European oil stocks are a better choice," says the investment expert.
Although these have already become significantly more expensive, they are still “attractively valued”: “The sector’s price-earnings ratio for the expected profits for the next twelve months is 8, more than 30 percent below the average for the past ten years.”
In addition to their favorable valuation, oil stocks are interesting due to their comparatively high dividend yields, emphasizes investment expert Stephan.
The sector as a whole has a value of 4.5 percent.
"I see the dividends as covered even in the event of a significant drop in oil prices or due to write-downs or the closure of Russian production sites," says Stephan.
However, there are of course risks, such as state intervention in the energy market, and short-term oil price setbacks are also possible.
“Direct investments in oil are usually made through forward transactions,” said Stephan: “The current argument against these direct investments in oil is that the futures prices for oil are currently below the spot price, this is what is known as backwardation.