Justin Yifu Lin: It is entirely possible for China's economy to achieve growth of 6% or more this year

(Two Sessions Express) Justin Yifu Lin: It is entirely possible for China's economy to achieve growth of 6% or more this year

　　China News Service, Beijing, March 5 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Lin Yifu, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency recently that it is entirely possible for China's economy to achieve 6% or more this year. increase.

　　Since the second half of last year, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased, and the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter has dropped to 4%.

In its latest forecast in January, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 4.8 percent.

In this regard, Justin Yifu Lin said, "I think it is too low. It is entirely possible for China to achieve a growth rate of around 6% or even more than 6% this year."

　　Justin Yifu Lin said that in the past, foreign institutions and others' forecasts of China's economic growth rate have always been low. In fact, China's development is higher than their forecasts, and the situation this year may be the same.

　　He pointed out that in 2020, China's economy was hit by the epidemic, and the growth rate was reduced to 2.3%, and there was a rebound last year.

As long as confidence is boosted and favorable conditions are taken advantage of, "after removing the rebound part, I personally think it is entirely possible for this year's normal (economic) growth to reach around 6%," said Justin Yifu Lin.

　　What factors support the "steady growth" of China's economy this year?

Justin Yifu Lin pointed out that economic growth mainly depends on technological innovation and industrial upgrading. In this regard, China has the "advantage of latecomers" and the "advantage of changing lanes and overtaking vehicles".

In addition, when the economic cycle is down, China also has room to exert force in fiscal and monetary policy.

　　From the perspective of fiscal policy, Justin Yifu Lin pointed out that China's savings rate accounts for more than 45% of GDP, and there is a lot of private savings.

From the perspective of the world, China's government debt is relatively low - central and local debt plus local investment platforms accounts for less than 60% of GDP, while other developed and developing countries generally exceed 100%.

Fiscal policy space remains large.

　　From the perspective of monetary policy, Lin Yifu said that monetary policy must be prudent of course, but it must also be flexible.

As the economic cycle fluctuates, China's deposit reserve ratio has room to lower, and interest rates also have room to lower.

(over)