(Observation of the two sessions) "Around 5.5%", what are the considerations for China's economic growth target this year?
China News Service, Beijing, March 5 (Reporter Wang Enbo) "Around 5.5%", in the government work report released on the 5th, the expected target of China's economic growth in 2022 has been lowered from the "6% or more" target of the previous year.
Such an arrangement is not surprising, reflecting the multiple considerations of China's economy in dealing with a complex situation.
This expected goal does not mean that China has no confidence.
At present, China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain.
With the weakening of the base effect, appropriately lowering the expected economic growth target is a pragmatic approach to assess the situation.
At the same time, as an important weather vane to guide development expectations, the growth rate target must also take into account the disruption of the epidemic on China's economy in the past two years, maintain sustainable growth, and avoid major ups and downs.
The government work report mentioned that the setting of the economic growth target "is in line with the average economic growth rate in the past two years and the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan".
Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, analyzed that the high growth of China's economy of 8.1% in 2021 is based on a low base, and the economic growth rate in 2022 should gradually return to the original track, but it should not decline too fast.
It is easier to connect the expected target down to 5.5%, and this smooth downward adjustment helps to avoid the risk of "stall".
This expected goal does not mean that China has no ambitions.
In 2021, China's economic aggregate exceeded the 110 trillion yuan mark for the first time.
On the basis of a larger "cake", a growth of around 5.5% will still bring considerable increments.
The government work report also emphasized that this is a medium-to-high-speed growth on a high base, which reflects the initiative and requires hard work to achieve.
At the same time of "increment", China's ambition to "improve the quality" of economic development is also clearly visible.
Unswervingly deepening reforms, in-depth implementation of innovation-driven development strategies, expanding high-level opening up, and improving the ecological environment... These series of measures to promote high-quality development are included in the Chinese government's work agenda in 2022.
On the one hand, we consolidate the foundation for economic recovery and on the other hand, enhance economic vitality, innovation and competitiveness.
The analysis believes that China will continue to coordinate stable growth, adjust structure, promote reform, accelerate the transformation of development mode, and make it clear that extensive development will not be carried out, which will help stabilize market expectations amid various uncertainties, and promote the steady improvement of the economy in terms of quality and quantity. reasonable growth.
This expected goal does not mean that China has no determination.
Improving people's livelihood has always been the foothold of China's economic growth.
As a large country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, solving the employment problem, consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation, and making up for various shortcomings in people's livelihood all require the economy to maintain an appropriate growth rate.
While the government work report appropriately lowered the economic growth target, the accompanying "people's livelihood list" was not "low-key".
More than 11 million new jobs have been created in cities and towns, the surveyed urban unemployment rate has been controlled within 5.5% throughout the year, and the growth of residents' income has been basically synchronized with economic growth. These indicators related to the vital interests of the people have maintained high standards.
"The ultimate goal of stable growth is to promote employment and protect people's livelihood." Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that China is expected to graduate 10.76 million colleges and universities this year, a record high, and the employment pressure is significantly greater than last year, and the necessary economic growth must be maintained. .
He believes that China's economy is resilient and has large policy space. As long as various macro-control policies are implemented, it can be achieved through hard work.
From this point of view, although the expected growth rate of "about 5.5%" has been lowered, no matter in terms of "quality" or "quantity", China has not lowered its requirements for economic work this year.
The idea of "steady words at the head and seeking progress while maintaining stability" also runs through it.
(over)