NIO-SW (09866.HK), which has an average loss of 30,000 yuan per car sold, announced on the morning of February 28 that it will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) as an “introduction to listing”, and it is expected to be listed in March. Trading starts on the 10th.

　　Compared with a normal IPO, "Introduction to Listing" will not issue new shares, but corporate shareholders apply for listing their old shares, no new financing is involved, so there is no need to subscribe for new shares, and they can be traded directly on the day of listing.

　　For NIO, the operating loss in the first three quarters of 2021 is more than 2.05 billion yuan, and the sales volume is 66,395 vehicles.

According to this calculation, Weilai loses more than 30,000 yuan for each car sold on average.

In addition, the skyrocketing aluminum prices brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will have an impact on NIO's "all-aluminum body"?

Will the average loss of bicycles further increase?

It has also attracted great attention from investors.

Selling a car loses 30,000

　　The battery swap mode is Weilai's "killer", but it also causes high operating costs, and most products are priced as high as 400,000 yuan.

Even so, the company still faces the embarrassing situation of losing more than 30,000 yuan for every car it sells.

　　"Since the launch of ES8 in 2017, all smart electric vehicles have been equipped with self-developed battery swapping technology, bringing users a 'rechargeable, swappable and upgradeable' experience. In 2020, the industry's first battery rental service (BaaS) will be launched. This innovative model allows users to purchase electric vehicles and lease batteries separately." Weilai's prospectus stated that in April 2021, the company began to deploy the second-generation power exchange station, which can shorten the power exchange time to less than three minutes, and can Holds up to 13 batteries, greatly enhancing our service capabilities.

As of December 31, 2021, 777 power swap stations have been deployed in urban areas and highways in 183 cities in China, and more than 5.5 million power swaps have been completed accumulatively.

　　The prospectus also shows that in 2018, 2019 and 2020, Weilai Automobile recorded revenue of 4.951 billion yuan, 7.824 billion yuan and 16.257 billion yuan respectively, while the nine months ended September 30, 2021, recorded revenue of 262.35 billion yuan billion.

　　However, in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the company incurred net losses of 9.639 billion yuan, 11.295 billion yuan and 5.304 billion yuan respectively; the nine months ended 2021 had a net loss of 1.873 billion yuan, compared with 3.915 billion yuan in the same period last year somewhat narrowed.

　　In 2018, NIO delivered 11,348 ES8s. In 2019, it delivered 20,565 vehicles, including 9,132 ES8s and 11,433 ES6s. In 2020, it delivered 43,728 vehicles, including 10,861 ES8s, 27,945 ES6s and 4,922 EC6s.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, the figure was 66,395, including 14,367 ES8s, 29,294 ES6s and 22,734 EC6s.

　　According to this set of data, in the first three quarters of last year, Weilai’s average operating loss per car sold exceeded 30,000 yuan.

　　According to the latest data, NIO delivered 25,034 vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year, setting a record for quarterly deliveries and a year-on-year increase of 44.3%.

Based on this calculation, the company delivered 91,429 vehicles last year, a significant increase of 109.1% year-on-year.

In January 2022, 9,652 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%.

Encountered chip shortage, continue to expand production capacity

　　Weilai said that the global semiconductor chip supply crunch in 2021 will have a negative impact on production activities and output.

　　NIO’s prospectus stated that due to a shortage of semiconductors, vehicle production at the JAC-NIO production plant in Hefei was suspended for five working days from March 29, 2021.

In May of that year, fluctuations in semiconductor supply and logistical adjustments adversely affected vehicle deliveries for several days.

In August, a new wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in China, Malaysia and other regions tightened supply chains, again severely impacting its production.

　　The prospectus also stated that the shortage of semiconductor chips in the industry is expected to begin to ease in the second half of this year based on the capacity expansion plans of major automotive chip suppliers and favorable policies to promote additional supply in China.

　　Although Weilai is still a huge loss, it still has to significantly expand its production capacity.

The company stated in the prospectus that the current annual production capacity of complete vehicles and components in cooperation with JAC Hefei Plant is 120,000 units, and it will expand to 240,000 units in the first half of this year.

In addition, construction of a second production plant in Hefei Xinqiao Industrial Park has begun, and production is expected to start in the third quarter of this year.

　　In addition, the prospectus also disclosed Weilai's latest shareholding structure.

Among them, Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, holds 10.6% of the shares and 39% of the voting rights; Tencent holds 9.8% of the shares and has 17.4% of the voting rights; Baillie Gifford & Co holds 6.5% of the shares and 3.5% of the voting rights.

How "all-aluminum body" responds to the skyrocketing aluminum price

　　While many German luxury car companies have adopted cost-saving practices such as "replacing aluminum with steel", Weilai insisted on "all-aluminum body".

However, due to the intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine recently, the price of aluminum has risen sharply. How much cost pressure will it bring to NIO?

How should Weilai, which is already in a state of huge losses, deal with this pressure?

　　Nio cited a third-party data released in July 2019 saying that it ranked first in quality among all electric vehicle brands, while the ES8 won the first place in the medium-to-large pure electric segment.

　　The performance of the products of the same level can be comparable to that of internationally renowned brands. An analyst in the automotive industry told the First Financial Reporter that the lightweight design of the all-aluminum body is indispensable.

"Automotive lightweight materials mainly include aluminum alloys and plastics, which are highly related to aluminum prices and oil prices. Some auto parts companies have low gross profit margins and are more sensitive to rising raw material prices. They will also find ways to pass it on to downstream auto companies. Because the industry concentration is not high, the bargaining power of car companies over midstream suppliers is not strong, and it is expected that midstream and downstream companies will need to jointly bear this cost increase." An auto industry analyst told Yicai.com.

　　However, with regard to the risks of the international political situation, Weilai just stopped there, and did not mention the impact of the sharp rise in aluminum prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

　　On the morning of March 1, Rusal (00486.HK) announced that it had to temporarily shut down the production of the Nikolaev alumina refinery in the Nikolaev region of Ukraine due to the inevitable logistics and transportation challenges in the Black Sea and surrounding areas.

"While there will be severe cuts in alumina production there in the short term, there will not be an immediate wider impact on aluminium production at the group's relevant aluminium smelters." Rusal said it was regularly reviewing future alumina demand.

　　Affected by factors such as the deepening of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Shanghai Aluminum (AL7777) rose 1.5% on March 2 to close at 22,975 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 25% in the past three months.

Luzheng Futures analyst Peng Dinggui said that a considerable part of Rusal is used for export, and direct exports are blocked, which has aggravated the overseas aluminum shortage crisis. Whether the West will directly sanction Rusal is still an unfalsifiable expectation in the short term, so the short-term price risk in the market is relatively large. .