China-Singapore Jingwei, March 3 (Wang Yongle) At 24:00 on March 3, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.
The comprehensive agency predicts that the increase this time is "certain", superimposed on the last increase at the end of 2021, and domestic refined oil prices will hit another "five consecutive rises".
New latitude and longitude in the data map
In this round of pricing cycle, affected by the tense geopolitical situation, the rising trend of international oil prices continued unabated, standing strongly at the US$110 mark.
Among them, US oil hit a new high since August 2013.
Wang Xueqin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that since this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil prices have shown a high level and high volatility, and the focus of transactions has continued to move upward.
As of the close on March 1, the change rate of the reference crude oil on the 9th working day in China was 3.42%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton.
Converted to an increase in price, both No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline rose by 0.12 yuan/liter, and No. 0 diesel rose by 0.13 yuan/liter.
After the implementation of this round of upward adjustment policies, 92# gasoline may enter the "8 yuan era" in parts of southwest and southern China.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the 9th working day on March 2, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US$96.96/barrel, with a change rate of 4.60%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 170 yuan/ton.
According to the Jinlianchuang pricing model, the final price increase in this round of price adjustment is expected to be around 200 yuan / ton.
According to data from Zhongyu Information, as of the ninth working day on March 2, the estimated price of Zhongyu crude oil at 95.7 was 3.382 or 3.66% higher than the benchmark price, and the corresponding range of refined oil was 150 yuan/ton.
Meng Xiao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that the pricing of this round of price adjustment cycle showed stranded expectations at the beginning. During the cycle, the rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine exacerbated concerns about the prospect of energy supply. Crude oil prices continued to climb, and Russia’s military operations accelerated the upward speed of oil prices.
During this period, the wholesale and retail price limit of refined oil changed from stranded expectations to upward expectations, and the increase rate was continuously widened.
According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei, domestic refined oil prices have undergone three rounds of adjustment in 2022, showing a pattern of "three rises, zero falls and zero stranding".
Coupled with the increase on December 31, 2021, oil prices showed a trend of "four consecutive rises".
After the implementation of this round of price adjustments, domestic refined oil prices will hit another "five consecutive rises".
If the above data of Zhuochuang Information is used and the 50L capacity of the general household car fuel tank is estimated, it will cost 6 yuan more to fill a tank of No. 92 gasoline.
In terms of the domestic wholesale market, Jiang Na, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, pointed out that the cost of main external mining has risen significantly, and the price of gasoline and diesel has risen.
Due to the rapid price increase, the industry is in conflict with the current high price, and the off-site consumption is mainly based on the previous inventory, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere in the market is sluggish.
Regarding the market outlook, Jiang Na believes that the situation in Russia and Ukraine may not ease in the short term, and the international crude oil price may continue to rise, and the news is still boosting.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, recently published an article saying that oil prices will still be easy to go up and down in 2022.
Since entering the era of shale oil, the substantial expansion of U.S. crude oil production has lowered the ceiling of crude oil prices at $120 per barrel.
Looking forward to the future, OPEC's pricing power has been strengthened, and the credibility of production increases has continued to be verified, and the follow-up of U.S. shale oil production increases has been weak, and the disturbances brought by the supply side may not be enough to worry about.
If the incremental impact of crude oil brought by Iran is falsified, and the superimposed global crude oil demand is still in the improvement channel, then for oil prices, $100/barrel may only mean the first half, and it is not ruled out that it will rush to $120/barrel. possible.
According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 17.
Meng Xiao predicts that according to the existing oil price forecast, it is temporarily stranded.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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