Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 28 

(international observation) Will the escalation of the Ukraine crisis choke the European energy "throat"

  Xinhua News Agency reporter Deng Qian Ouyang is Xu Jiatong

  With the sudden escalation of the situation in Ukraine, the international energy market has fluctuated sharply in recent days.

Europe is highly dependent on Russia in the field of energy, and has suffered from energy shortages and rising prices before the Ukraine crisis. The current geopolitical situation will face a greater test.

  Analysts believe that if Russia's energy supply to the EU is interrupted, the EU will not be able to find alternative options in the short term and will face a serious energy crisis.

Of course, Russia will also lose an important source of international revenue at the same time.

At present, the two sides are "vindictive" but not "killed".

Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy supplies

  As the world's major oil and gas exporter, Russia's key role in global energy supply cannot be underestimated, and Europe is heavily dependent on Russia's energy exports.

In the primary energy structure of EU countries, oil and natural gas account for about 60%, and they mainly rely on imports. Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas and crude oil to the EU.

According to a relevant report from the market research firm Capital Economics, about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports and about 30% of its imported crude oil come from Russia.

  European countries rely heavily on imports of natural gas.

Statistics show that among the natural gas imported by Finland, Latvia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova and other countries, Russian natural gas accounts for more than 90%.

In addition, nearly 80% of Bulgaria, more than 40% of Germany, Italy and Poland, and nearly 25% of France's natural gas are also imported from Russia.

  Oil is the most used fuel in the EU's final energy consumption.

Petroleum products such as heating oil, gasoline and diesel account for 41% of the EU's final energy consumption, according to Eurostat.

Nearly half of Russia's oil exports in 2020 went to European countries, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Europe's "shortness of breath" makes things worse

  Due to the rapid growth in energy demand brought about by the economic recovery and the decline in liquefied natural gas deliveries, European natural gas inventories are currently at the lowest level in 10 years.

Europeans are under pressure from rising energy bills, and the European economy is plagued by high inflation driven by rising energy costs.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will undoubtedly lead to higher energy costs and even bring about the risk of "breathing".

  The Russian website today quoted relevant data and reported that as of January 12 this year, European natural gas inventories were less than half of the capacity of all storage facilities.

German media reported that German gas inventories were at "scarcity levels".

  After the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, the German government announced to suspend the related process of the "Nord Stream-2" project that could have increased the supply of Russian natural gas.

On the 26th, the United States and Europe announced that some Russian banks would be excluded from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT) payment system, which is also not conducive to the prospects of energy trade between Russia and Europe.

The research institute believes that if Russia's gas and oil supplies to Europe are completely cut off, Europe will only be able to maintain it for a few months.

  Since the second half of 2021, natural gas prices in Europe have continued to be high, and volatility has increased after the escalation of the situation in Ukraine. The wholesale price of natural gas in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands has risen by 30% to 40% in the short term.

Experts expect oil and gas prices to remain elevated this year as geopolitical risks exacerbate global supply shortages.

  The Citigroup report sees further gains in energy prices, with European energy spending soaring to a record $1.2 trillion in 2022, the highest level since 2008 and well above the $300 billion in 2021.

Close energy ties make Russia and Europe "fight and two injuries"

  In recent years, Europe has continued to promote energy transformation, and more than a dozen countries have announced plans to withdraw coal.

However, experts generally believe that it is unlikely that Europe will find an alternative supply in the short term. If a stable energy supply is lost, economic and social life will be significantly affected.

At the same time, Russia, which relies heavily on oil and gas exports, will also suffer significant economic losses if it loses the European market.

  Leaders of the G7 member states issued a statement on the 24th, saying that they will pay close attention to the dynamics of the international oil and gas market, and support the continuous and constructive contacts between major international energy suppliers and consumers, so as to ensure the stability of global energy supply and respond to possible emergencies. prepare for chaos.

  Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs Kabi said recently that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine leads to the interruption of energy supply, no country has the ability to replace Russia with enough natural gas to supply Europe.

  Bloomberg pointed out that some European countries have been vigilant about the possible economic consequences of sanctions against Russia, hoping to reduce the impact of sanctions on energy prices and avoid damage to the EU economy.

  Philippianko, chief analyst of European natural gas research at Wood Mackenzie Consulting, believes that if there is a prolonged supply interruption, Europe cannot rebuild natural gas inventories this summer, and will face a catastrophic situation where gas storage is close to zero in winter.

Natural gas prices will soar wildly, severely impacting industrial production, increasing inflation, and the European energy crisis may even trigger a global recession.

  For Russia, strangling Europe's energy "throat" is a counter-card, but if it completely cuts off supply, it will also backfire on itself.

Although Russia has promoted the diversification of oil and gas exports in recent years and expanded its exports to Asia and other regions, the EU is still the main market for Russia's oil and gas exports and its main source of income.

  According to an article on the website of the British Wotexa Consulting Company, the vast majority of Russia's energy export earnings still come from Europe.

The longer the current crisis situation lasts, the more Russia's ability to profit from its oil and gas resources will be impaired.

  The mutual dependence of Russia and Europe in oil and gas trade means that a drop in Russian energy supplies will cost both sides a high price.

If the Western sanctions directly target Russia's energy exports, it will lead to a new round of sharp rise in global energy prices, making the road to recovery of the world economy still under the shadow of the epidemic more difficult.

(Participating reporters: Kang Yi, Li Jizhi, Tang Ji, Gu Ziyi)