Our reporter Wang Siwen

  In the eyes of investors, IPOs have always been a profitable business, and the first day of listing of IPOs has almost always ushered in super-high gains.

However, at present, the income space of new products is shrinking, and "laying and winning" has become a thing of the past.

  According to the statistics of a reporter from Securities Daily, since the beginning of this year, as a public fund of institutional investors, the performance of new returns has also been average.

According to the data on new sales in January calculated by Hang Seng Qianhai Fund, taking a fund product with a scale of 200 million yuan as an example, the monthly new return rate of A-class investors is 0.45%, which is lower than the level of last year.

From the perspective of the allocation amount, the fund's new allocation amount in February this year (as of February 27) fell by 78% month-on-month.

  The new fund is "no longer fragrant"?

In this regard, a reporter from "Securities Daily" recently conducted a survey on the popularity of new funds and their income.

  Four dimensions cause new revenue to weaken

  Lower than last year's monthly average

  In recent years, the reform of the capital market system has accelerated significantly, and institutional investors such as public funds have actively participated, sharing the dividends of the registration system reform, and increasing the overall product income by generating new income offline.

  "As a class A investor, public funds have great policy advantages in launching new products offline," a relevant person in charge of public funds in Shanghai told the Securities Daily reporter, "For example, there is no threshold limit on market value, and there are no restrictions on market value. In terms of ensuring that the proportion of public fund placement is not lower than that of other investors, it has attracted many investors who cannot enjoy preferential policies to share the dividends of the registration system reform.”

  According to the reporter's statistics, in 2021, the fund's new income will be relatively rich, and the average annual return of the A-type account and the 200 million yuan public fund account will reach 13.22%.

Among them, the revenue from new launches in June was the peak of the whole year, and the revenue from new launches on the Science and Technology Innovation Board contributed the most.

  According to the data on new sales in January calculated by Hang Seng Qianhai Fund, taking a fund product with a scale of 200 million yuan as an example, the monthly new return rate of A-class investors is 0.45%, which is lower than the level of last year.

  In addition, the amount allocated to the fund is also decreasing.

In January 2022, the cumulative allocation amount in a single month totaled 9.82 billion yuan, while from February 1 to February 27, 2022, the cumulative allocation amount was only 2.1 billion yuan.

  After investigation by a reporter from Securities Daily, it was found that there are four main reasons for the weakening of the current fund's new income: the increase in the number of new shares breaking, the effective quotation range is significantly broadened, the shortlist rate is significantly reduced, and the fund scale increases.

  Specifically, the increase in the number of new shares breaking is one of the main reasons for dragging down new earnings.

According to statistics, according to the closing price on the first day of listing, since the beginning of this year, up to now, there have been 5 new stocks that have broken, exceeding 50% of the same period last year, and all of them are concentrated in January, namely Zhen Lei Technology, Aojie Technology, Mai Weiwei Biological, Xinghui Ring Material and Weike Technology.

  In addition, on September 18, 2021, the "New Regulations for Inquiry" came into effect, which adjusted the maximum exclusion ratio of quotations on the Dual Innovation Board. 3% of the total amount to be purchased by all offline investors.

  In this regard, the research team of Puyi Standards stated, "After the implementation of the 'new price inquiry regulations', the effective quotation range of the Shuangchuang board has been significantly broadened. The price-earnings ratio center has increased from about 23 times before the new regulations to 58 times as a whole (data in December 2021)."

  "After the implementation of the new rules on IPO pricing, underwriters and issuers have become more prudent and reasonable in pricing, thus reducing the room for returns on the first day of listing. The average increase of new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and ChiNext on the first day of listing is only 43.93%, which is more than 80% lower than the average increase of 247.38% from the beginning of 2021 to before the implementation of the new regulations." Li Weikang believes.

  The above-mentioned changes in the rules have resulted in fine-tuning the participation of some fund products.

A public fund manager in North China told a reporter from Securities Daily that the "new price inquiry rules" had a certain impact on the upward trend in the number of fund accounts participating, but the overall number of new accounts did not change significantly.

According to statistics, currently the top fund companies participating in offline new deals mainly include GF Fund, Southern Asset Management, E Fund Fund, China AMC, Penghua Fund, Wells Fargo Fund, Harvest Fund, China Merchants Fund, Bosera Fund, etc. The number of price accounts is more than 200 times.

  In addition, the entry rate is also significantly reduced.

In this regard, the relevant person in charge of Hang Seng Qianhai Fund told reporters that on the one hand, the dispersion of market inquiries has increased, and the price range has a greater difference; With greater autonomy, the average IPO quotation rate of market products generally dropped by 10% to 20%.

According to the data, the average shortlist rate of fund accounts on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and ChiNext Board before the new regulations was 81.66%, and the average shortlist rate dropped to 64.09% after the new regulations.

  Finally, the increase in the size of the fund will also lead to a decline in new returns.

Under normal circumstances, the larger the fund size, the more the new income will be diluted, thereby weakening the fund's income.

Therefore, the new fund will be controlled at a scale that can reflect the obvious increase in the return of the new strategy, so as to give full play to the advantages of the new strategy.

  "In recent years, the scale of equity fund products has grown rapidly. Many 5 billion yuan, 10 billion yuan, and even 100 billion yuan fund products have been born, but they are limited by the overall scale of new shares offline, which can adapt to new income. The maximum fund size is basically controlled at around 200 million yuan. The larger the scale, the harder it will be to show the effect of new business." An investment manager who focuses on the new business of the Beijing Stock Exchange told reporters.

  Fund new risks come from more

  IPO Valuation and Bottom Position Volatility

  Although once the representative of "risk-free income", the fund can use its existing positions to open new investment strategies to increase product returns and maximize the scale of the fund.

However, the risk of new funds is also particularly noteworthy.

  Li Weikang, manager of Hang Seng Qianhai Fixed Income Fund, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that public offerings may have the risk of negative returns.

This is mainly due to the different quality of new shares, especially due to the different pricing strategies of listed companies and issuance underwriters, so the pricing of new shares may be overvalued, and there is a risk that the first day of listing may not rise as expected or even break.

  "In this case, the fund launch will test the manager's research ability and judgment ability even more. For new stocks with obviously high valuations, you can choose to give up the subscription to avoid the risk of breaking." Li Weikang said.

  In addition, from the perspective of the volatility risk of the bottom position.

Funds need to allocate a certain stock bottom position to open a new fund. The fluctuation of the bottom position stocks will not only affect the fund's income, but also affect the new income.

  For example, since December 2021, market volatility has begun to increase, and growth sectors represented by the Science and Technology Innovation Board and ChiNext have fallen significantly, which not only affects the risk appetite of market investors for new stock investment, but also affects the bottom position income.

In order to reduce the impact of fluctuations in the bottom position, some new funds tend to allocate blue-chip white horse stocks with lower volatility, but the overall risk of the market still needs attention.

(Securities Daily)

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