The Russia-Ukraine conflict has consequences for international air traffic.

Russia on Friday banned British airlines from using Russian airspace.

The government in London had previously banned landings by the Russian state company Aeroflot.

This sets in motion a spiral of sanctions that aviation managers had feared for days.

British Airways has confirmed that it will no longer be flying to Moscow or overflying Russia.

Timo Kotowski

Editor in Business.

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Luis Gallego, head of the parent company IAG, tried to present the consequences as minor - also in view of corona restrictions - because expensive detours are necessary for flights to the Far East, to China, Korea and Japan.

Gallego said it only serves a small number of destinations in Asia and can reroute all flights.

It is unclear whether EU airlines are threatened with something similar.

Deutsche Lufthansa continues to serve Russia, but adjusts some flight times.

Aeroflot has not yet been banned from landing in the EU, but the EU has agreed to ban the export of aircraft and spare parts to Russia.

Michael Trinkwalder from the crisis warning service provider A3M believes that the conditions can be tightened on both sides.

Asia flights threaten to become more expensive

“Russia has threatened in the past to close its airspace to Western airlines.

This time, as a reaction to renewed massive sanctions, this threat could be put into practice,” says Trinkwalder.

Then not only would Moscow flights be eliminated, Far East traffic would also be affected.

“Western airlines would then probably have to use significantly less profitable flight routes.

This, in turn, is likely to result in flight cancellations and rising prices for flights to East Asia,” he says.

Russian overflight bans last existed during the Cold War.

Airlines are currently avoiding the Ukraine, the Russian border area, Belarus and Moldova, even in accordance with official orders.

This does not involve any major detours.

Current routes run south to India or Singapore and north to Korea and Japan – but through Russian airspace.

A lock would block the fastest routes.

That would be a blow to aviation hoping for a post-pandemic recovery.

Travel providers are also worried that the war will dampen the holiday demand that has started.

A conflict at the gates of Europe has an impact on booking behavior, says Ralph Schiller, head of FTI, the third largest tour operator.

Trinkwalder says that there is generally no danger to air travel.

"But it is understandable that many passengers have a queasy feeling about the events in Ukraine."

Security managers organize evacuations

The situation for Germans in Ukraine is more serious.

The Foreign Office speaks of a high three-digit number of German citizens who have entered the crisis prevention list of the office.

Since this is voluntary, it is assumed that more Germans are staying there.

The way home will be more difficult for them.

"Travellers in the region should not hope for official evacuation flights," says Trinkwalder.

Ukrainian airports are among Russia's primary military targets and the risk of being shot down would be great.

Meanwhile, Wolfgang Hofmann, security officer at the service provider International SOS, is busy planning evacuations for representatives of companies and organizations – all of them overland.

Telephone calls with those affected currently determine his work.

“We have already carried out evacuations.

We use smaller vehicles for smaller groups," he reports.

The projects should be examined on a case-by-case basis, and evacuations may have to be suspended in the event of military action.

It would then be safer if those affected stayed in apartments or hotels that were not close to military targets.

According to his description, there is another hurdle for trips out of the Ukraine.

The border with Poland is basically still open, but it is not always easy to find drivers.

Companies question security in a larger region

“The Ukrainian government's requirement that men between the ages of 18 and 60 report for military service seems like a restriction.

Most of the security forces are young men.” In addition, travel options are restricted – due to traffic jams because Ukrainians are also leaving cities, and due to checkpoints that have been set up.

However, not only people in the Ukraine ensure extra work at International SOS.

"Even flights from Minsk in Belarus are now difficult to implement," says Hofmann.

Companies with foreign representatives and fitters looked even further.

"German companies in particular attach great importance to being prepared for possible future risks," reports Cédric Fraissinet, Central Europe Managing Director of International SOS.

Questions about staying in Moscow or in states in the Baltic States or about leaving have been received.

With regard to Russia, companies are advised to check whether they are allowed to carry out planned activities at all, even under tightened sanctions.

The first companies have asked for evacuation plans as a precaution, but not only the logistics are important.

“The current development means considerable stress for those affected, which adds to the stress caused by Covid-19.

We also need to offer psychological support,” says Fraissinet.

Security manager Hofmann says there is currently no direct danger of attacks by government supporters on foreigners.

At A3M, risks are already mentioned in the event of a further escalation, including possible “harassment by border officials”.