Since the beginning of this year, the popularity of the metaverse concept has plummeted.

At present, Meta’s stock price has fallen by more than 48% from its all-time high in September last year, and Roblox’s stock price has fallen by more than 55% this year.

In the A-share market, Zhongqingbao, which has been favored by funds before, has fallen by 34% in 10 trading days this year. As of the close of February 24, Zhongqingbao has fallen by 28.66% this year.

　　Analysts said that the metaverse industry will enter a period of divergence in 2022, and multiple factors have jointly led to the cooling of the metaverse concept.

After the divergence period is over, it is expected to usher in an upward period of prosperity.

The big market for the whole of the metaverse may not start until the second half of 2023 or 2024.

　　Cooling caused by multiple factors

　　In the opinion of analysts, entering 2022, the sudden drop in the popularity of the metaverse concept is caused by multiple factors.

　　First, the accelerated pace of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve has skewed market preference in favor of value stocks.

Since the beginning of this year, expectations of the Fed's tightening have gradually strengthened, and the interest rate hike in March is on the line.

As interest rates rise in the future, growth companies that rely on loans will be hampered from expanding, so investors are now looking to other assets that may offer higher returns.

　　Second, geo-risks hit market sentiment.

Since the beginning of this year, the geopolitical situation has continued to escalate, funds tend to flow into defensive products such as gold, crude oil, and the US dollar, and stock assets are under pressure.

　　Third, industry chain companies cannot achieve profitability in the short term.

According to the financial report data released by Meta earlier this month, the Meta Metaverse business will lose as much as $10.19 billion in 2021 and $6.62 billion in 2020.

　　Finally, the metaverse industry entered a period of divergence.

Huang Leping, head of the TMT research group of Huatai Securities and chief analyst of technology and electronics, said bluntly that technology giants regard the Metaverse as the "next stop of the Internet"; investors see investment opportunities worth trillions of dollars; government agencies believe that It is a real challenge that needs to be viewed rationally, focusing on how to balance the relationship between industrial development and safety.

　　The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently issued a document reminding investors to guard against the risk of illegal fundraising in the name of Metaverse.

　　Big market still has to wait

　　Is this the end of the metaverse?

Jiao Juan, chief internet analyst of Essence Securities Media, believes that Metaverse will enter a divergence period in 2022, which is a normal phenomenon that will appear at a certain stage of development.

The big market for metaverse integrity may start in the second half of 2023 or 2024.

　　Huang Leping said that the construction of the Metaverse is not a one-day effort, and there will be opportunities in the next 5-10 years.

Analogous to the 4G era, the development sequence of the Metaverse industry chain will be: underlying technology infrastructure (software and hardware equipment manufacturers), interactive terminals (VR and AR equipment manufacturers), Metaverse content platform, and Metaverse applications.

　　CITIC Securities recently released a research report saying that in the next 3-5 years, the development of Metaverse is expected to follow three main lines: first, content innovation based on mobile phones and PCs; second, the incremental growth of next-generation technology hardware such as VR and AR; It is the fusion of the metaverse and computing platforms such as smart cars.

In the medium and long term, we can focus on high-barrier directions, such as the VR hardware industry chain and leading companies that truly have core competitive advantages on a global scale.

　　CITIC Securities reminded that factors such as the uncertainty of the profitability and long-term competitiveness of Metaverse’s early products, the industry changes that may be brought about by technological innovation and new technology routes, and the uncertainty of various countries’ policies and regulations on the Metaverse need to be focused on.

　　Original title: The popularity of the metaverse concept has dropped significantly