The financial markets are already cynical: while the war begins in Ukraine, the market players are trying to calculate exactly what violence, death and misery means in pennies and pennies.

Does this mean that the bottom line is that people are ordering more food boxes from Hello Fresh or fewer?

Will the war spoil consumerism and thus perhaps the purchase of the new BMW?

Or does a now-more-right mood ensure more travel bookings with Lufthansa?

Just as quickly as the horrifying news hits the news tickers, more and more analyzes from the financial players are arriving in the mailbox as to who is benefiting from the war and who is harmed by it.

Daniel Mohr

Editor in the economy of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.

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But it is not only in the bank towers that people are busy calculating, many private investors are also wondering whether their money is still in good hands in the Dax ETF and how high the next heating oil bill will be.

The horror is still far enough away.

This is also reflected in the stock markets.

The Dax is a hesitant 3 percent in the red on Thursday in early trading after the start of the war.

Later it is temporarily 5 percent.

When the Corona crisis hit us, the minus on one trading day was 12 percent.

Many no longer dared to go outside and stashed tin cans and toilet paper.

The needs in this country are not that existential.

And certainly not in America.

After the start of the war, the Dow Jones opened moderately negative and later turned positive.

The technology exchange Nasdaq even had one of its better trading days with a gain of a whopping 3 percent.

On Friday, the Dax gained more than 3 percent at times until the afternoon.

The fear barometer on the stock market is rising

So everything is only half as bad?

This message would be premature.

It's worth taking a look at the stock market's fear barometer, the V-Dax New.

It is a measure of market fluctuations in the markets.

He is currently between 34 and 40 points.

In quiet and relaxed stock market times, however, it is only 15 points.

So the alert is high.

The nervousness is palpable.

But there is no sign of panic.

It was there during the Corona outbreak in Europe with more than 80 points in the V-Dax New.

Such a level of panic was also reached during the financial crisis.

But now the financial markets are looking at the numbers very soberly.

The experts at the analysis company Oxford Economics distributed a chart showing that this war will have an economic impact above all in the per thousand range.

The global economy will therefore lose around 0.2 percentage points of growth this year.

The American economy a little less, the European economy a little more.

Even for Russia, losses of only 1.2 percent are assumed.

"It hurts, but it's not a huge issue for the markets," says Christian Kahler, equity strategist at DZ Bank, describing the situation.

“Islamist terror from Afghanistan and Iraq posed an immediate threat to Western economies.

So far, however, Russia has not been seen as that.” For the individual Dax stocks, Kahler calculates, business with Russia accounts for only a few percentage points of their business;

maybe 2 to 3 percent for the car industry, but less for most other industries, so that the average for the Dax is less than 1 percent.

Not enough to become a serious threat to the stock markets.

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