Zhongxin Finance, February 26 (Reporter Li Jinlei, Wu Tao, Xie Yiguan and Ge Cheng) The global economy, which is facing the impact of the epidemic and the surge in commodity prices, has increased a lot of uncertainty because of the sudden escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
How the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will affect the global economy has also become the focus of attention of all parties.
On February 24, local time, in Mariupol, Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region on the 24th, a military installation near Mariupol Airport caught fire.
Where will the global economy go?
When the missile appeared over Ukraine, it not only made Ukraine's heart nervous, but also shocked the global financial market.
On the first day of the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, global stock markets plummeted, and the prices of crude oil, gold and agricultural products rose sharply.
How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect the global economy?
Analysts are widely concerned that this has sent energy and food prices soaring, fueling inflation fears and scaring off investors, factors that threaten investment and growth in the global economy.
"This will affect not only oil and gas prices, but also investor confidence, consumer confidence, trade and more," said Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist.
Tan Yaling, president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, told the reporter of China-News Finance that the key to affecting the global economy at present is panic expectations, which will cause price stimulation. The economic roles of Uzbekistan and Ukraine are related to their backgrounds. As a major food country and a major oil country, they have a relatively large international influence in energy, and have a great radiation and relevance to the entire European continent.
Tan Yaling pointed out that at present, the entire world economy is in a basically stable state, and the entire market has not yet gone out of control, and it seems to be controllable now. The long-term impact on the global economy remains to be seen.
Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out to the China-News Financial Reporter that at present, the price of energy commodities has risen sharply, and the international oil price has surged to more than 100 US dollars. The rise in natural gas prices is most affected by Europe. More serious inflation, the European economy and macro policies are facing more difficulties and challenges. It is expected that this year will be high and then low,
which may also affect the pace of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions in the United States
.
A research report released by the German Allianz Group on the 24th believes that the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may have a significant impact on the economy and finance through the three major transmission channels of energy, trade and finance.
In extreme scenarios, a recession in the euro area will be a high probability event.
The subsequent impact of the event on financial markets will depend on two developments: the scale of US (and NATO) military involvement, and whether such involvement will have a long-term impact on energy commodities
.
On February 24, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region.
The picture shows the Ukrainian capital Kiev, police are inspecting the debris of the missile fell on the street.
International food prices may rise further
Russia and Ukraine are both major grain producers. Ukraine is known as the "granary of Europe". It is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil and the third largest exporter of grains. Russia is an important exporter of wheat in the world. The export ranks first in the world, and the barley export ranks third in the world.
According to statistics from relevant agencies, Russia and Ukraine account for about 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of world corn supply, and 80% of world sunflower oil exports.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China-News.com reporters that because Russia and Ukraine are important grain exporters, international grain exports may decrease in the
short term due to wars and sanctions against Russia by Western countries.
It may aggravate the volatility of the international grain market,
and the overall grain import price may rise to a certain extent.
Especially in
low-income food-deficit countries, the volatility of the international food market will further impact their food security
.
On the other hand, the war will also disrupt logistics and raise international oil and natural gas prices, which may adversely affect the logistics and transportation of international grain trade in the short term.
Li Guoxiang believes that in the long run, it depends on whether the conflict situation can be calmed down as soon as possible.
But even if the conflict doesn't last long, economic sanctions on Russia will continue for some time.
For U.S. grain exporters, there may be some benefits
.
According to the research report of CICC, Ukraine and Russia are the main importers of domestic corn and barley, but China is less dependent on grain imports, and the overall impact is controllable.
On February 24, local time, Kiev, Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region on the 24th, Kiev people drove out of the city.
Oil price rise may be unsustainable
Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told Zhongxin Finance that at present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to increased uncertainty in Russia's oil and natural gas exports to Europe, and major changes in oil prices guided by futures.
Geopolitical conflicts boosted oil prices.
For the oil industry, this is short-term positive news.
Zhou Dadi believes that in the context of the new crown epidemic, the changes in oil prices are not dominated by the contradiction between supply and demand. Due to production blockages, the demand for transportation oil has declined.
At the same time, the winter is coming to an end, and the supply pressure of crude oil and natural gas dominated by heating demand continues to decrease.
Therefore, the current oil and natural gas prices are mainly affected by the situation and do not reflect actual changes in supply and demand, and fluctuations are difficult to sustain.
In addition, in the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, after the agreement is reached, Iran will increase its oil production capacity, and the actual global oil supply will also further increase. In the long run, it is difficult for oil prices to continue to rise.
At the same time, the United States is also a major producer of oil and natural gas. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the relationship between Europe and Europe is tense, and the United States is expected to take action.
Chen Fengying analyzed that the
current high oil price is not a reflection of the actual supply and demand relationship of the world economy. There is hot money speculation, and the space for speculation will become smaller after the "abscess" is pierced
.
In addition, now that oil prices have covered the cost of shale gas production in the United States, oil geopolitics may return to a three-pronged situation, and the United States, which was previously squeezed out by low oil prices, is back.
On February 24, local time, the situation in Ukraine deteriorated sharply, and people in many places lined up in front of ATMs to withdraw cash.
The picture shows citizens withdrawing money from an ATM in Lviv, Ukraine.
Exacerbating tensions in global supply chains
"The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will exacerbate the tension in the global supply chain." Cheng Dawei, a professor at the Department of International Economics at Renmin University of China, told China-News Financial reporter that the major changes were mainly in the Eurasian sector, including trade in railways, crude oil, and other raw materials. There is bound to be a shock.
The supply and demand relationship between countries in the Eurasian plate will change.
In addition, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the geopolitical conflict has become more explicit. It used to be a secret contest, but now it can be said to be "playing the cards."
And whether more countries will join is also a variable.
Cheng Dawei said that as many countries impose trade sanctions on Russia, many countries will adjust the source of imports of scarce items.
For example, Russia has changed the source of imports for some commodities that originally needed to be imported. On the other hand, countries that originally imported raw materials from Russia, such as Germany, will also adjust the source of imports.
(over)