The war between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in world prices for most cereals.
The two nations are among the largest exporters on the planet, and the conflict will not be without consequences on the world food market.
France, self-dependent in terms of wheat, should not suffer the consequences too much.
"Everyone rightly mentions the consequences for gas or oil, but the agri-food dimension of this war should not be underestimated", immediately warns Sébastien Abis, managing director of Club Demeter, a think tank dedicated to agricultural geopolitics.
The conflict between Moscow and Kiev opposes in particular the first and the fifth wheat exporter in the world, weighing approximately 30% of the sales of the planet.
The invasion of Ukraine was therefore followed by a surge in the price of wheat, which peaked at 340 euros per tonne during the day on Thursday, before stabilizing around 315 euros at the end of the session.
A level higher than the old record, 300 euros per tonne, in November 2021. The conflict also affects a multitude of other cereals, Ukraine weighing in world exports 20% of corn, 20% of rapeseed and 50% of sunflower.
Price instability
"The conflict is taking place in the most productive agricultural areas of Ukraine and Russia has already seized many ports," notes Paolin Pascot, co-founder of Agriconomie.
The Ukrainian harvests are particularly abundant this year, but will the Russians accept that they sell them?
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Many questions are currently hovering over the market, enough to explain the soaring prices: “It can become a real problem at the global level, supports Jean-Jacques Hervé, president of the Academy of Agriculture of France.
Many countries depend on Russian wheat, but also on Ukrainian corn or sunflower.
And if wheat prices reach 500 or 600 euros, not everyone will be able to provide themselves.
Most cautious nations have reservations.
Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat, for example, has indicated that it can hold out its stocks for five months, indicates Sébastien Abis, who fears global inflation.
And for France?
On the French side, product prices should remain relatively stable and your baguette will not cost 3.50 euros, we can reassure you.
France is the first producer and the first exporter of wheat in the European Union, and 50% of its cereals go abroad, informs Paolin Pascot: "If the crisis lasts, it will be able to lower its exports to concentrate on the internal market.
But there will be no lack of cereal in France given our national production.
As for the price of pasta, it depends on the price of durum wheat, while we are talking here about soft wheat.
Nothing to worry about either.
France, a major exporter, could it even benefit from this increase in the price of cereals?
It is not said.
“If the wheat burns too much, it risks becoming unsaleable,” laments Jean-Jacques Hervé.
According to the specialist, Russia could for its part sell its wheat lower than the market price, in order to ensure its sales and conquer new markets.
The country also has many borders, seas and allied countries to bring out its precious cereal, adds Jean-Jacques Hervé.
One thing is certain, "just like gas, Russia needs to sell its cereals, which are essential for its economy", pleads Sébastien Abis.
The assailant also has no interest in destroying Ukrainian silos, but should instead sell their stocks.
In other words, the managing director of Demeter “excludes any risk of a world famine.
According to the state of Ukraine's post-war fields, “Nevertheless, the country's harvest could be affected next year.
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Bad news for French breeding
The price of wheat, on the other hand, influences all other cereals, which is bad news for French breeders.
“Soy protein, massively used to feed animals, is likely to see its price increase”, supports Paolin Pascot.
Added to this are the already very real inflations of corn or Ukrainian sunflowers, again heavily used for the consumption of our French animals.
Worse still, fertilizer depends a lot on the price of gas, which has been constantly increasing since the Ukrainian crisis: "A ton of fertilizer has quickly gone from 150 to 600 euros", continues Paolin Pascot, enough to hit the wallet hard of a sector in difficulty.
Finally, the war could cut off French breeding from the Russian market, and this in a lasting way.
The Eastern giant does not hesitate to free itself from foreign productions in the event of a crisis.
After 2014 and the European sanctions against the annexation of Crimea, Russia launched a vast plan for agricultural independence.
Paolin Pascot: “In 2021, France exported 460 million euros of agri-food products to Russia, mainly in the dairy and pork sectors.
Moscow could quickly learn to do without it, creating a shortfall for breeders.
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Market in crisis, country in mourning
The market was already at historically high prices, due to the coronavirus crisis and bad weather conditions.
The Ukrainian conflict only makes matters worse.
"The situation can become tense for certain countries like Morocco, importer and victim of a historic drought on its harvests", fears Sébastien Abis.
But the director general reminds us, we must not be mistaken about who are the main and first victims: “Even in terms of food security, it is the Ukrainians who will have to suffer the most from the consequences of this conflict.
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World
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Inflation
War in Ukraine
Price
Russia
Economy
Wheat
Cereals
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