The situation in Russia and Ukraine suddenly changes, and the global risk aversion is heating up. The international gold price breaks through the $1,970/oz mark
An investor sells 11.2 kilograms of gold on rallies
"Recently, in terms of weight, more gold has been recycled. What impressed me is that a gold investor brought 11.2 kilograms of gold to the gold recycling point in our shopping mall the day before yesterday and sold it, with a total payment of more than 4.2 million yuan! "Dai Chongye, manager of the business department of Guangzhou Dongbai, said excitedly when interviewed by all media reporters of Guangzhou Daily.
Investors sell gold mainly due to rising gold prices.
As of 19:20 on February 24th, Beijing time, the gold masters in New York broke through US$1,970 per ounce, and the intraday violence rose by more than US$60, and the increase expanded to 3.23%.
So, under the influence of international tensions, the global risk aversion is heating up. How should investors look for safe-haven assets to weather the market storm and seize market opportunities?
Text, Biao/Guangzhou Daily all-media reporters Zhang Lu, Wang Chuhan
Offline market: The place where gold is recycled is suddenly bustling
The reporter learned that recently, offline gold recycling places have suddenly become lively.
"Take yesterday as an example, our offline gold store has 30% more people than usual, mainly investors who come to sell gold." Vice President and Chief Gold Analyst of Guangdong Gold Association, Guangzhou Jingxin Precious Metals Zhu Zhigang, the general manager of the limited company, told the Guangzhou Daily all media reporters that the customers who come here are mainly divided into two categories: the first is to sell investment gold bars purchased before; the other is to sell gold jewelry at home, "but those who sell gold bars There are relatively many customers.”
As a senior gold practitioner, Zhu Zhigang was deeply touched by the sudden surge of gold on the 24th. "Gold was only 388 yuan/gram in the morning, but who would have known that yesterday's peak reached 396 yuan/gram, and there was an increase of 8 yuan in one day, which is very Rare!" Zhu Zhigang continued, saying that this also puts forward high requirements for investors, "You can't imagine that the price difference of gold is so large in one day. If investors hesitate to sell, he is worried that gold will suddenly fall and miss out. Great opportunity."
During the interview, the reporter learned that there are also many investors who are optimistic about the future of gold and go to buy gold. For example, on February 23, the Guangzhou Dongbai Main Store sold more than 680,000 yuan of gold bars alone.
Domestic futures oil sector rose sharply, Brent crude oil broke $100
Yesterday, most of the main contracts in domestic futures closed up during the day, and the oil sector rose sharply and continued to hit new highs. , fuel oil, peanuts rose more than 4%.
Founder's mid-term futures analysis believes that Ukraine and Russia are one of the rapeseed producing countries. According to USDA data, the total global share of the two is 8.28%.
Therefore, the tension between Russia and Ukraine will make the market hype whether its subsequent rapeseed exports will be affected, which will aggravate the market's concerns about the shortage of rapeseed supply in the later period.
Fundamentally, Guoyuan Futures believes that the supply of soybean meal is running at a high level.
The logic of the soybean meal market has not changed much recently. The main line is still South American weather speculation and production worries. The secondary line is the poor demand expectations caused by the US soybean export window being squeezed by South American soybeans.
At the same time, crude oil also rose sharply. Among them, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London broke through US$100 per barrel intraday on February 24, the first time in more than 7 years that it broke 100 per barrel, and continued to climb to US$105 per barrel in the intraday, soaring within the day over 8%.
As of 19:24 Beijing time, US crude oil rose by more than 8% to US$99.93/barrel; Brent crude oil rose to US$101.18/barrel, a surge of nearly 8% on the day.
Russia's RTS index fell nearly 50% during the session
Stock market volatility has increased.
On February 24, the stock markets of Russia, Australia, New Zealand and other countries all fell sharply.
Among them, the Moscow Stock Exchange, one of Russia's main stock exchanges, once suspended all forms of trading, and the Russian RTS index continued to decline during the session, with a drop of nearly 50%.
European stocks collectively opened sharply lower, with Germany's DAX30 index, the UK's FTSE 100 index, and the European Stoxx 50 index falling more than 3% during the session.
Asia-Pacific stock markets fell across the board.
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.81%; the Korea Kospi fell 2.6%; the FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell 3.55%.
In the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar fell to 1:87.82 during the session. At the same time, the Russian Central Bank decided to start intervening in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Russian financial market.
Looking at the situation of A-shares specifically, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.7%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by more than 2%.
Hedging sectors such as oil and gas and precious metals bucked the trend and strengthened, while sectors such as software services, Internet, culture, education and leisure were among the top losers.
In terms of the transaction volume of the two markets, as of the close on February 24, the transaction value of the Shanghai market was about 569.794 billion yuan, the transaction value of the Shenzhen market was about 792.905 billion yuan, and the total transaction value of the two cities reached 1.36 trillion yuan. new highs.
Gold future trend institutions are divided
How should investors look for safe-haven assets to weather the market storm?
Looking forward to the market outlook, whether the safe-haven asset gold can continue to rise has become the focus of the market.
Due to the current high uncertainty in global geopolitics, it also makes the future trend of gold assets unclear, and institutions have divergent views on the future trend of the gold sector.
Nanhua Futures said that from the perspective of the market outlook, the price trend of precious metals mainly focuses on two aspects: first, the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine will continue to dominate the price of precious metals in the near future.
In the medium and long term, under the expectation that the U.S. economic growth rate is expected to slow down and the U.S. debt/GDP ratio continues to rise, precious metals are expected to continue to perform strongly, and if the situation in Russia and Ukraine eases, it may provide more orders for the medium and long-term layout of precious metals. better chance.
Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month gold price target to $2,150.
At the same time, it also raised its 6-month forecast target to $2,050 an ounce.
Citigroup said that with the start of the Fed rate hike cycle, the outlook for precious metals will be more challenged in the long run.
It is bearish on gold in the second half of this year and in 2023, forecasting a drop to $1,675 an ounce.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that in the short term, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and risk aversion has dominated the market.
Wang Delun, chief economist of Xingzheng Asset Management, summed up the market performance after major geopolitical conflicts occurred, and found that in the short term, growth and cyclical styles were dominant, while consumption performance was weak. Over time, consumption stabilized and financial styles dominated.
The reporter noticed that many financial institutions said that the impact of geo-risk events on the A-share market was limited.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that some high-quality leading stocks actually have limited room for decline. When there is an external negative situation, you can consider some companies with relatively poor A-share fundamentals or companies with overvalued companies. Moderately and appropriately lighten up positions. For some high-quality leading stocks that have fallen beyond decline and adjusted in place, you can adopt a sticky strategy and wait for the return of value.