Securities Times reporter Hu Huaxiong
Yesterday, the situation in Russia and Ukraine further escalated, the global financial market "Ukraine" surged, the stock market fell sharply, the foreign exchange market fluctuated, energy prices soared, and safe-haven assets such as gold rose sharply.
There is no doubt that this is a "super black swan" event. However, experts interviewed by the Securities Times reporter believe that the overall positioning is a one-time shock.
Global market shock
On February 24, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a televised speech and decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbas region. The Ukrainian parliament approved the implementation of a wartime state throughout Ukraine, further escalating the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine has severed diplomatic relations with Russia.
Affected by the relevant news, the global capital market experienced severe shocks that day.
In Asia-Pacific markets, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.81%.
The S&P Australia 200 index opened lower and fell further, and closed down 215.10 points, or 2.99%.
The S&P New Zealand 50 closed down more than 400 points, or 3.31%.
The FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell 3.49%.
India's Sensex30 index closed down 4.72%.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.20%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.11%.
The Hang Seng Index fell 3.21%.
European stock markets generally fell sharply at the opening, with the UK's FTSE 100 index down more than 3% during the session, and the French CAC40 index and Germany's DAX30 index down more than 5%.
The Moscow Stock Exchange, one of Russia's two main stock exchange indexes, opened lower in early trade, falling nearly 10% at one point.
After the resumption of trading, the stock index continued to tumble, with an intraday drop of more than 40%.
The U.S. dollar-denominated Russian trading system stock index fell nearly 50 percent.
In the US stock market, the three major stock indexes fell sharply at the opening. As of press time, the Dow fell 1.81%, the Nasdaq fell 0.52%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.20%.
Regional tensions are also having an impact on global commodity prices.
Brent crude futures rose sharply, topping $100 during the session.
Gold and other precious metals prices rose, COMEX gold futures prices rose 2.88% intraday, hitting a new high in the past year.
Russia's local currency, the ruble, plummeted.
Risk aversion heats up
The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine directly increased the risk aversion of global investors, and the VIX volatility index soared sharply.
While the stock market fell, trading volume generally increased.
The turnover of the A-share market exceeded 1.36 trillion yuan, about 30% higher than the previous trading day, and the turnover of Hong Kong stocks increased by more than 50%.
Regarding the impact of related events, Qian Wei, a macro analyst at China Securities Investment Securities, said in an interview with a Securities Times reporter that the overall positioning is a one-time shock and will not become a lasting impact on the market.
On the one hand, historical experience, such as the Crimea crisis in 2014, also saw a sharp drop in European stock markets and a sharp rise in gold, but it was quickly repaired.
On the other hand, yesterday's market plunge was mainly due to the fact that Russia's actions exceeded expectations. Since the crisis has been fermenting for a long time, it has not become the core main line of the market.
However, Qian Wei believes that due to high global inflation pressure, the Fed is in a tightening cycle, the economy is also facing downward pressure, and the market is volatile. The deterioration of the situation in Ukraine will have an impact on risk appetite, and it will still affect global assets in the short term. form compression.
Qian Wei believes that for the A-share market, due to the controllable inflation and the dislocation of the monetary policy cycle and overseas, the core contradiction is the effect of stable growth and easing credit.
Short-term sentiment may be affected by external shocks, but there are still opportunities throughout the year.
It is expected that as the economy stabilizes in the second quarter, A shares will gradually enter an upward trajectory.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the A-share market is mainly at the psychological level. Investors lack confidence when the market adjusts, and the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused the market to fall further.
The downside of high-quality leading stocks is limited.
When there is an external negative situation, some companies with relatively poor A-share fundamentals or companies with high valuations can consider moderately reducing their positions. For high-quality leading stocks that have been adjusted in place, they can adopt a sticky strategy and wait for the return of value.