While Russia is waging war on Ukraine, negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions against the country are apparently nearing completion.

Negotiators are spreading confidence, a draft treaty is said to be available, and a prisoner exchange between Iran and America is being considered.

This preceded the 2015 agreement.

But unlike then, the hope of a political agreement and the lifting of many sanctions leaves business representatives rather cold this time.

Andreas Mihm

Business correspondent for Austria, Central and Eastern Europe and Turkey based in Vienna.

  • Follow I follow

The difference to 2015 is enormous, says Dagmar von Bohnstein, Managing Director of the German-Iranian Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Tehran.

"At the time there was a spirit of optimism, but at the moment expectations are rather cautiously positive." Her colleague Christoph Grabmayr, Austria's economic delegate in Tehran, says that a political agreement is a prerequisite for better economic relations: "But it won't be like 2015, when suddenly the big boom broke out.”

One reason: Iran has come to terms with sanctions, including decoupling from the Swift payment system, which is now threatening Russia.

Another is the uncertainty as to whether future American governments will comply with the new treaty.

With Donald Trump, a president had previously overturned the treaty.

That will make the banks, among other things, cautious.

Trump has not achieved his goal

That was different in 2015.

No sooner had the nuclear deal been signed than Federal Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) was in Tehran to take trade to new, old heights.

The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce reported soberly that in 2005 Germany had a trade volume of 5 billion euros with Iran and 3 billion euros with China.

In 2015 it said: "Now we have one in 2.5 billion and China one in 15 billion."

Six years later, in 2021, German statistics show 1.76 billion euros in trade with Iran.

The exchange between China and Iran was unchanged at 15 billion dollars.

But this account from Chinese customs authorities does not include Iran's oil exports.

For good reason.

America had issued in 2018 hundreds sanctions against Iran, especially against oil and gas exports, the backbone of the economy.

Since then, stores that do not serve humanitarian purposes sanctioned.

Banks wrap for fear of retribution from any payments.

But its purpose is to ruin the country if possible uprisings against the theocracy to kindle, Trump has not been reached.

The army is considered to be more powerful, the nuclear program as a greater than ever.

The local light and consumer goods industry was apparently able to cover domestic demand, says Mayr grave.

Sanctions with significant impact

Nevertheless, the sanctions hit hard.

The economy has shrunk for years, the rial has devalued, unemployment is high, especially among young people.

It is said that those who can try their luck abroad.

The economy had hardly recovered when Corona came.

The pandemic hit Iran harder than other countries in the Middle East.

Inflation reached 45 percent.

It feels like prices for rent and food are rising faster.

This hits people in the cities harder than people in the countryside.